Anyone invest in Nestle OR Carlsberg? Planning to keep for long term...Any advise here sifu? First timer here...LOL

By end 2021; china will become the largest gloves exporter. Doubt topg has much appetite to expand more than currently planned.

most gloves production lines are made in china, they know what is needed and how to obtain certification.

certification is only hard for new start up. oem is common in the industry; many path to certification is already opened and just need to walk down.

topg foreign workers issue from the u.s is the results from years of arrogant attitude by tansri. china don't have mistreatment issue on foreign workers. for reasons, mohr has opened 19 files on topg recently.

This is also a factor many r not touching msian gloves stocks. The authority is PUNISHING these companies instead of getting their commitment to fix problems n announce the good news to assure world community of positive progress n improve the msian industry’s image. They r not playing supporting role n r not so keen to allow more companies grow into giant corporate. Very unfortunate

Personally, i think its a good move than those companies get punished. At least those cheap/foreign labor get treated better. Of cos its not required to provide a very good or first class treatment, but at least a acceptable living condition.

To be able to grow into giant corporate, first of all ur employees must be happy. The image must be good.

Having said that, i am talking about the general living conditions of our foreign labor in companies which i have seen with my own eyes, not TG cos i didnt see it with my own eyes yet.    But if they get punished, then i dun think the condition is really that good.

In the current bull market, it's hard to value invest.
Everything is priced to the sky.

Haha, true true. If stock market is as simple as follow fundamentals only or follow charts only, everyone already is a billionaire already. Sometimes even logic also can’t pakai.

Haha, true true. If stock market is as simple as follow fundamentals only or follow charts only, everyone already is a billionaire already. Sometimes even logic also can’t pakai.

Apparently this data is genuine.

It can be easily found at bursa website. Hahahaha.

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/misc/missftp/...ion20201211.pdf
Bro, what is “mee bihun”? Haha

if that is true, and i think it is, JPM should dump big on monday... until it is less than mine!!

but liars, hypocrites and manipulators never do that, we know.
THAT... is something to watch out for.

still, it is a double edged sword.

If JP Morgan valuation is wrong.... then why don't they say CIMB is wrong too?

remember CimB had this

2021 -> 10.3 bil profit
2022 -> 5.295 bil profit
2023 -> 3.1 bil profit

Which basically saying what Macquarie and JP Morgan is saying... only difference is CIMB only dared to reduce target price of 10 to 8.90.

Reduce so much but CIMB still say 'Add' and dare not use the S word.

This is from TG QR...



Now we know sales = ASP (average selling price) x Num (number of gloves sold)

Do check but TG production did not increase significantly... so if Num does not increase , simple Math tells us that ASP is the multiplier effect.

Check the ebitda margins... it's pretty constant.... and we know the ASP for those years, was pretty much stable.... no drastic swing...

So clearly... what is driving the Sales revenue higher is the ASP, in which we know for a fact pre C19 it was only usd 17 but now it's about usd120.00.

So with ASP going from 17 to 120 ... isn't clear that Sales revenue rose so high... which gives TG the extremely profit margin.

Okay with this part?

This part is all about business sense... business logic... reality...

No matter what ... raw materials rising or what excuse .... in no business reality, one can raise prices from 17 to 120 in less than one year and keep on raising prices again and again. It's just not possible.

This is business common sense. Logic.

Okay... maybe ... die die... 140.. or 150 is possible (and that is the basis how net profit estimation of 10 billion is estimated) ..... but what's next?

Can still continue higher and higher meh?

If cannot ... logic tells us the chances is that ASP should fall to the usd 100 level.

If it falls that low.... what's our reference? the previous quarter where TG only (lol ... ya...only) had profits of 1.3 bil.

1.3 bil annualised is 4.2 bil net profit.

Tadaaaa..... from 10 bil ... TG profit can fall to 4.2 bil.... it's not rocket science but estimating which way the ASP will go.

Given today... can ASP go so much higher meh? Can it go higher and higher without stopping?

Can it go USD200? USD200 for 1000 pcs of glove. LOL! Gold lining gloves meh?

So for me... the risk ... is so obvious.... ASP will fall.... and the fall will mean drastic reduction in earnings.

Ahhh.... when will this happen. ( Read the edge articles again and see JP Morgan reasoning... it's really not unreasonable the way they reasoned out .... ) Will it happen late 2021? 2022? 2023?

Yes no one knows precisely but then ... this also represents the uncertainty.... Who wants to go long in a stock where the earnings could plunge anytime? This is what funds will be thinking.... it's perfectly normal. A risk assessment.

And if I have the stock or if I want to buy, I will make this very same risk assessment...

anyway this is my 3 sens....

and oh... really ... u should avoid 13 at all cost la....
feel free to disagree.... 
*edit... couple of big number mistakes has been corrected *

:confused:    macam ni pun boleh. 
  nobody can win the free market and JPMorgan coming in to break the wall! 

I think they better spend more time to deal with their derivatives crisis.

They are lining up as one of the bankrupt candidate when the doomsday arrive. 

different quote same statement, many glove players stay in penthouse, keep average down now all burnt..

if really invest long then wont come to forum here say drop la balls drop la heart broken la etc, those FIFO but caught knife now have to bear consequences..

u go see those FB stock group all keep simply post vaccine negative news based on title alone, u will see alot of ppl stay penthouse..

if really invest long then just shut screen go live life come back after a few months or years..

ego is a dangerous thing to have when it comes to anything that has elements of gambling.

again, not referring to anyone here, just saying the mentality as a whole.. when kena burnt need to come forum find chicken soup for the soul..

Mean many /k are vested in gloves share.

And the market is now closed!

When was the last time we saw such a beautiful Holland chart for glove stocks in a day? 

Top Glove -8.70%
Supermax -10.58%
Harta -12.83%
Kossan -12.80%.

Their performance is even worse than the 2nd liner glove stocks!

Please come back tomorrow for more excitement. Bring your heart pills, popcorn, extra safety belt, bullet proof vests, etc. 

Walao. Condom? WTH for?  :confused:

a perfect storm!

DSAI false alarms, covid-foreign workers, JPM-shorts...

not enuf... mathir-guli challenge tmr.... = land of corrupt mafia?
if this shix continues, all exports will start falling, RM goes to....

then, nasi lemak kosong is all malaysians+foreigner workers can afford to eat, breakfast, lunch and dinner.