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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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dickybird
post Nov 24 2020, 05:35 PM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Nov 24 2020, 05:32 PM)
Mana ada rebound, kawan? Are you counting from morning session to closing session today? If so, then I think it did improve by a few percent.
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I was looking at the 1year chart for Liihen.
Thought it was rebounding.
dickybird
post Nov 25 2020, 03:53 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 25 2020, 02:50 PM)
Surprisingly, no one talked about the 2 big risk when one does share buyback.

1. The share could still fall below the share buyback prices. So many local examples. MPI. Parkson. etc etc ....

2. This is related to what you had posted. When a company buybacks a lot of shares, it depletes the cash at hand... which means ... whatever excess working moneya company is depleted because the boss embarked on an aggressive buyback.

Which begs the question. If the company is willing to set aside XX amount of money to 'reward' their shareholders, why don't give it as cash. You do buyback, the share could always fall.... I wonder if shareholders really understand this point.
now regarding top glove...
the one thing one gauges all the 'activities' once a company strikers a profit windfall is one is afraid that the boss gets way too ambitious with the excess cash.

Look at the events that is happening now for TG.

What do we see? Making huge investments in dunno what securities (1.6 billion worth! - strange no one else cares about this issue?)
the boss wants to give dividends...
boss wants to list in hong kong ( listing expensive is not cheap, is it?)
boss just gave 400 mil to govt to help c19 ( but yet ... some wants to tax them more....)
boss wants massive cap exp ... to increase lines....
boss doing crazy share buybacks....

back of hand counting is simple...
take 12 billion profit for 2021  (yes 12 bil)
55% as dividends...
HK listing?
share buyback 10% ( ahem .... that's at least 5 bil there ... could be 6 billion)
cap expenditure .... how much ah?

isn't this like a little kid in a candy store?
everthing also want... laugh.gif
.... and yet .... sadly....attention is focus now on it's labour .......
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The question is, can the cash pile be put to better use?
If not, why not reward shareholders through buybacks?

This post has been edited by dickybird: Nov 25 2020, 03:56 PM
dickybird
post Nov 25 2020, 05:04 PM

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QUOTE(tehoice @ Nov 25 2020, 03:59 PM)
how is buyback directly rewarding shareholders?
maybe indirectly yes, as it would increase EPS, etc.

if wanna reward shareholders directly, pay cash dividend, not to forget, the major shareholder is the larges receipient.
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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 25 2020, 04:09 PM)
If you buyback like how TG is buying back, very soon the cash will deplete.
When cash deplete, money set aside for working capital, how?
their Klang factories issue... hmm... I wonder need how much money needed ....

For sure, funding for TG right now is wet wet water.
Bankers will die lining up for its business.

But what about shareholder?

You want see company buyback shares, only to see the share still fall lower?
Now if these share were allotted with the intention to reward the shareholder, doesn't it mean the shareholder reward will fall?
And yes, on the other hand, if the shares go up, the shareholders will get more 'money'.

But isn't this a gamble?
If you are the shareholder, would you not prefer to have the cash?
Isn't cash is king?
See what's so wrong with TopGlove share buyback is how they do it.
Market down, they buyback ... well that's ok. No many will complain.
But there are a number of days where share buyback is wasted because when the share go up, Top Glove still buyback!
Isn't this like throwing money away (esp when the shares fall)?

And when you so aggressively announce your buybacks, some daytraders will find ways to profit from the buyback cos the traders know that TG broker will mop up the shares. So indirectly, these share buybacks could profit daytraders, which indirectly the buybacks is only mopping these day traders shares....

and my view... is where got company challenging the market with their buyback,,,  have said it few days ago... their share buybacks is reckless, too aggressive for my liking, wink.gif
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https://www.investopedia.com/articles/activ...hich-better.asp


dickybird
post Nov 25 2020, 07:24 PM

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QUOTE(skty @ Nov 25 2020, 06:48 PM)
good sharing. I always prefer companies do SBB and cancel the shares in USA because I always get taxed (30% man!) for the dividend as a non-US citizen.

But one thing I don't like is they go and borrow ultra low interest bond (near to 0%) and use the money to do SBB. Very bold move and keep increase their debt.

I don't get taxed for capital gain in US market.  biggrin.gif
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Maybe there is a tax benefit to doing that?
Just like how we can deduct our interest paid for any loans on our rental properties we might own.
dickybird
post Nov 27 2020, 01:47 PM

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QUOTE(penanghomes @ Nov 27 2020, 12:07 PM)
vivocom coming up again

manage to get the dip few days ago...
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Only play with your starbucks coffee money, not any money you'd hate to lose.
dickybird
post Nov 30 2020, 11:44 AM

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QUOTE(greyPJ @ Nov 30 2020, 06:26 AM)
user posted image

shouldn't we in fear now? already near max greed.
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We still buying
Not pulling out yet
Haha
dickybird
post Dec 1 2020, 10:37 AM

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Pressmetal keep flying up! why?!

dickybird
post Dec 1 2020, 11:08 AM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Dec 1 2020, 10:52 AM)
Setting up a new smelter plant, but with its PE at 64 (priced in for future growth).

It is too expensive to be considered a value buy
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thanks

dickybird
post Dec 1 2020, 01:41 PM

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QUOTE(ry8128 @ Dec 1 2020, 01:08 PM)
Good for us i guess, as there are many employers are taking advantage of the well being of their workers.

This should serve as a wake up call for the rest.
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you can tell by all the new clusters in KL coming from construction sites.
dickybird
post Dec 1 2020, 03:52 PM

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QUOTE(wayton @ Dec 1 2020, 03:47 PM)
The one has a lot of momentum is metal, alumimium, copper rise a lot lately.

Those metal company share are up continously for several days already.
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at least 2 months already.
Pmetal up from 4.xx to now 7.xx in the last 6 months

dickybird
post Dec 2 2020, 06:41 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Dec 2 2020, 05:54 PM)
Once front liner got vaccine jab, i doubt they will practice full PPE anymore.

I see last time during school when we go and get our BCG vaccine, it seemed like one pair of gloves is used for the entire day vaccinations activities.

Now you go some clinic to do your Hepatitis vaccine, some don't even wear PPEs.
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Lol
You think infection control policy is for show only?
Will you dare to go to hospital if they are so lackadaisical with ppe use? Lol
dickybird
post Dec 2 2020, 06:49 PM

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QUOTE(sadukarzz @ Dec 2 2020, 06:46 PM)
people also say SOP etc etc lar

but got shop follow strictly or no?
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Shops are one thing, hospitals are another. Noncompliance with infection control policy can cost lives because of the proximity of so many people with infection and health conditions.
dickybird
post Dec 2 2020, 06:52 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Dec 2 2020, 06:50 PM)
Well is human nature what. When you know the chances of you dying is lower, will you ALWAYS follow the full process & guidelines ? The process for doing height work is full safety harness, but do you see all the construction worker practice it ?

This is the same for what happen with TG factory. They know the proper SOP to follow to reduce spread of infections but in view of profit do they do it ?

I strongly believe when immediate threat is lowered, people use of PPE will go down. Starting with front liner.

See the story of a major US hospital CEO insist on not wearing PPE just caused he survived covid. He is fired subsequently, but this just show you human nature at work

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/20/health/c...-ceo/index.html
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You answered your own question.
dickybird
post Dec 3 2020, 04:40 PM

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QL selldown until suspended.
dickybird
post Dec 4 2020, 02:53 PM

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QUOTE(Assassin's @ Dec 4 2020, 01:41 PM)
I think (also hope) its gonna go down this evening since its not NIIS related. Lets see if my decision to sell at 1.9 this morning was the right call.
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Good call
dickybird
post Dec 7 2020, 11:51 AM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Dec 7 2020, 10:45 AM)
Thank you.  biggrin.gif
You are welcome, bro. It was your money and your call.  smile.gif

I wonder how many forumers here bought Serba Dinamik last Friday?
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Missed the boat unfortunately
But doing well with myeg and mrdiy
dickybird
post Dec 7 2020, 11:53 AM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Dec 7 2020, 11:24 AM)
It has happened to me many, many times with the stocks that I sold. The moment I sold it, it shot up 10% or even 20% within a few days.

This shows that we need to improve our TA.

But life goes on. No point regretting. There are many other opportunities in the future.
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Hahaha
That happens to everyone
I sold homeritz at 0.63 after that it trekked up to 1.00

dickybird
post Dec 7 2020, 11:54 AM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Dec 7 2020, 11:52 AM)
As long as we are making money with the stocks in hand, that is good enough.  smile.gif
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Agree
But I'm still long on a lot of doggie counters like sapnrg and keyasic.
dickybird
post Dec 7 2020, 12:50 PM

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QUOTE(andrekua2 @ Dec 7 2020, 12:47 PM)
Why you sold? Net cash company. Been holding for 2 years. Just makan divvy if no movement.
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Rebalancing
Lol
dickybird
post Dec 7 2020, 01:30 PM

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QUOTE(staticxtreme @ Dec 7 2020, 01:01 PM)
lol should it be time to be fearful when kopitiam is also talking and posting about stock picks?

or happy that more and more ppl are vested in stock market
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Talking about your own holdings is not a call to action to buy or sell. Just sharing news of positions taken and sold.
No harm.
To buy or sell a stock is your own absolute discretion and it assumes you've done your homework before a decision.

If you asked me, the best time to be vested was when the market was tanking in March and April. Now it is probably overbought. Sadly, I didnt take the chance.

But, there is no better game in town.

This post has been edited by dickybird: Dec 7 2020, 01:50 PM

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