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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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post Aug 26 2020, 05:05 PM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Aug 26 2020, 04:57 PM)
3.65 billlion not 0.365
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For someone who keep preaching about stock investing here you are a pretty funny guy.

If Ambank earn 3.65b this quarter I all in my life saving.
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post Aug 26 2020, 11:12 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 26 2020, 09:39 PM)
After something happen = credit loss
Before and anticipated things to happen = loss provision OR expected credit loss (ECL)
How accurate is their ECL prediction model, this I dont know
If you want to be safe, go for banks with higher loan loss coverage ratio?

Not sure if anyone actually goes through financial statement/balance sheet before investing. But it is wiser to do so: a lot less risk, when you know the share value.

IMO, banks are good for investments, but not good for trading. NOSH too high, very hard for sharks to collect MOST and swing it in a certain direction. Might still possible to do it, but sharks need A DAMN LOT of time to collect at low prices. But I am happy with the 7-10% dividend yield after economy recovery. This year prolly expecting less DY, but I go for long term, I am still in my 20s.
With the anti-banks sentiment, I seriously dont see how bank share prices will rise significantly.
Share price will only go up, once IBs or sharks have collected enough and start sharing news (most prolly they will use economy recovery as the trend later in 6 months - 1 year time) to push the share price up.
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We can interpret it the other way. Higher loan provision = the bank has been too loose in their lending policy = the bank will have higher default rate when there is an overall surge in defaults across the economy.

Even then, don't just look at numbers. Look at other factors. How many times CIMB got data breaches? How many times CIMB lost its data tapes? How often CIMB Clicks website down? Who have the highest CASA (and hence cheap funds)? Which bank is more innovative always come out with new product? Which bank always just copy the idea from the innovative bank?

Also, all these banks are held by professional fund managers who know a lot more than you, spend a lot more time analysing than you, and have larger funds to invest than you. Valuation for CIMB is cheaper because the fund managers believe it will not outperform Maybank for many reasons.
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post Aug 27 2020, 01:25 PM

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QUOTE(bronkos @ Aug 27 2020, 01:17 PM)
Suddenly the PE is not 10x anymore.

If the dividend declared is halved, suddenly DY is not 8% anymore.


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post Aug 27 2020, 01:27 PM

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Another broker downgrades glove sector.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/glov...wngrades-sector


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post Aug 27 2020, 02:17 PM

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QUOTE(james.6831 @ Aug 27 2020, 01:56 PM)
22mil profit...1.5bil market cap...haha PE how much
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17x annualised P/E. Not really that bad if the profit can be sustained.

IF
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post Aug 27 2020, 02:52 PM

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QUOTE(bronkos @ Aug 27 2020, 02:49 PM)
only hope now is for ppl to goreng it kaw kaw  biggrin.gif
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Goreng an RM80b company when the wind is blowing against you? Haha.

My prediction is it will die a slow death of (on average) -0.5% every day until it reaches RM6.50 by May next year.




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post Aug 28 2020, 09:31 AM

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QUOTE(Human Nature @ Aug 28 2020, 09:29 AM)
I am using CGS-CIMB i-trade and wanted to sell some share. At the sell pad, I keyed in both sell qty and min qty. The status is rejected and deducted from my portfolio, qty on hand. Any idea what happened and how to cancel it? Thanks
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Check your order status at order book.

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post Aug 28 2020, 07:42 PM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Aug 28 2020, 07:17 PM)
Let me confirm this again. 1470 million profit for CIMB? That's like 4x of 2019????
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What are you smoking bro. He is talking about provision.

CIMB posted quarter PAT of RM277 mil, compared to RM1.5b in the corresponding quarter last year. That's an 80% drop in PAT.

On top of that the CEO said this:

“The subdued performance in 2Q20 came within expectations and was largely attributed to the impact of COVID- 19. Moving ahead, we expect continued weaker performance for the remainder of 2020 in line with uncertain economic conditions, as we recognise elevated provisions arising from the impact of MEF under MFRS9 and take impairments on specific accounts outside Malaysia to strengthen our financial position.

Those who think they are buying cheap at PE 8x may need to think again. If next 2 quarters post a loss you may get it even lower PE or even negative PE.

This post has been edited by ComingBackSoon: Aug 28 2020, 07:49 PM
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post Aug 28 2020, 10:59 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 28 2020, 08:05 PM)
Bro, my PE 8x calcs is based on 2019 result because I believe in 2021 earnings will normalize at least to 90% of 2019 result
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Very optimistic, but I respect your opinion.
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post Aug 30 2020, 07:24 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Aug 30 2020, 06:37 PM)
Airasia: NTA: 0.610, share price: 0.66
Maybank: NTA: 7.300, share price: 7.33
Topglove: NTA: 1.29, share price: 26.28

GenM: NTA: 2.92, share price: 2.28

You no need genting to have massive profit, just don't incur further losses next Q and you would have own an incredible assets at below market value.
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Then you should buy property developer's shares.P/B 0.3.

If only it is as simple as that.
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post Aug 30 2020, 07:47 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Aug 30 2020, 07:40 PM)
There is a difference, what i showed are dividend yielding blue chips. Given TG may not be consider value play anymore.

Anyway properties developers the assets are the inventories. Big Different. If under construction, similar comparison would be suncon, georgekent etc
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If you are coming from a dividend yield standpoint I can't see any "big" difference. As far as I know, Airasia, Genting and Maybank are in deep shit cashflow wise, and all but Genting (somehow) has suspended dividend payment.




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post Aug 31 2020, 03:05 AM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 30 2020, 08:09 PM)
Not entirely true for cash flow
Aa cash flow: started to be -ve since 2020Q1
GenM cash flow: +ve for the past 4 quarters, although it was 2 digits for 2020Q1, and 3 digits for 2020Q2; pre pandemic cash flow has always been 4 digits
MBB cash flow: was -ve, but recorded +ve for 2020Q2
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I have no clue what “digits” you’re talking about. Genting reported negative cash flow in its latest qr.
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post Aug 31 2020, 05:38 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 31 2020, 10:44 AM)
I also dont know what 'negative cash flow' are you referring to. Gen and GenM both reported positive cash flow statement in the past 4 quarters (including the latest qr)

GenM FCF for the past 4 quarters (2019Q3 to 2020Q2)
user posted image

Gen FCF for the past 4 quarters (2019Q3 to 2020Q2)
user posted image

With all being said, I also wont buy Gen and GenM for now.
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No clue where you get those numbers.

Official report by Genting:

1) Operating cash flow - negative 680 million
2) Net cash flow - negative 516 million.



Source: https://www.gentingmalaysia.com/wp-content/...ess-Release.pdf
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post Sep 1 2020, 02:37 PM

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QUOTE(nauticat99 @ Sep 1 2020, 12:55 PM)
hi fellow investors, traders, scalpers...
i am very curious why a lot of you keep saying the end of loan moratoriums will cause ppl to take their money out from bursa? Even when hse, car or ptptn loans resume, you are not gonna pay what you owe from the past 6 months in one shot. You are paying in monthly installments, hence i cannot understand how or why it should drag the market down?
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Personally I don't buy into this idea as well. My opinion is that people who buys shares are NOT people who can be easily affected financially just because they need to resume paying loans. Everyone around me who buy shares definitely won't be affected.

But if everyone thinks that the end of moratorium will negatively affect the market and withdraw their funds, it will become a self fulfilling prophecy.

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post Sep 2 2020, 09:30 AM

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QUOTE(westernkl @ Sep 2 2020, 01:43 AM)
What's so good about CIMB?
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Good at system down. Yesterday almost whole day down.

Some ppl here still say cheap. Ya for a reason.
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post Sep 2 2020, 03:24 PM

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Hahhaa its the time where people start speculating at QR again.

400m, 800m, 1b, and now 1.2b.
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post Sep 2 2020, 06:59 PM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Sep 2 2020, 06:37 PM)
So wait.... if tomorrow price is 9+, but we only get the bonus shares on next Monday, will the portfolio then show negative figure for TG?
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Yes will show negative. Temporarily. Don't get shocked
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post Sep 2 2020, 09:29 PM

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Nobody talking about genting hk’s latest rpt selling zouk to LKT son?
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post Sep 3 2020, 10:15 AM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Sep 3 2020, 10:03 AM)
The audit report was submitted last week IIRC. Takes at least 2 weeks to unban. So, if timed correctly, should be same week as QR report.
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Maybe already resolved but wanna time together with QR.

Turbo twin charge.
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post Sep 3 2020, 12:07 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 3 2020, 12:05 PM)
Averaging down is not a good strategy for most retailers, as most retailers are not having as deep pocket as funds.
Funds may constantly have new money coming due to people topping unit trust, insurance ILP premium, pension fund etc.
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Rather, most retailers do not have the discipline to maintain cash position. Got 1mil to invest, whack 700k in first entry. Got 10mil to invest, whack 7mil in first entry.

How to average down?

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