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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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post Sep 7 2020, 02:52 PM

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QUOTE(wayton @ Sep 7 2020, 02:45 PM)
It is difficult to value glove stocks now with PE because profit is extra-ordinary, as it is difficult to guess how the profit will grow and reduce after or when normalisation kicking in.

If normalisation kicking in with oversupply because of too many new supplies with many companies also venture in it, then smaller one will have disadvantage over the big one.
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It is difficult to value every stock because nobody can forecast the future.

You are right smaller one will have disadvantage. Hence the big price difference of 2.5x at current valuation.


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post Sep 7 2020, 03:49 PM

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QUOTE(mojo86 @ Sep 7 2020, 03:35 PM)
Topped up Supermax and Careplus...according to their last QRs, I feel these 2 are the most undervalued. And in my mind, there's no way they will make less next QR than the last.
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I top up some Carepls at 3.08 too.

Do keep in mind out of Carepls last quarter's RM36m profit, 15m is one-off gain from disposal. Core profit was only RM21m. Don't expect next quarter's profit to be higher than RM36m.

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post Sep 7 2020, 04:24 PM

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Supermax RIP...
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post Sep 7 2020, 04:53 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Sep 7 2020, 04:52 PM)
https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/541609

Malaysia might start following US footsteps, BNM might start buying bonds
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Good. Good for stock market.

Come liquidity come come.
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post Sep 7 2020, 05:00 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Sep 7 2020, 04:55 PM)
They must have realized that retailers started pulling out funds ahead of moratorium
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There has been not much point putting money in FD and top graded bonds since the GFC. Its not the case of asset prices are going up. Its the case of money devaluing - all around the world.

Buy stuff... whether its shares, properties, cryptocurrencies... whatever... Buy stuff... to protect your wealth.


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post Sep 7 2020, 05:03 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 7 2020, 04:58 PM)
Mean myr will depreciate against usd, sgd, jpy, cny, etc.
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Yeah. So buy assets to hedge your MYR.

Although it might not be that big a problem from the forex perspective. Other countries are also trying hard to devalue their currencies. US has unlimited QE.


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post Sep 7 2020, 05:04 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Sep 7 2020, 05:01 PM)
Sad to see that MYR keeps getting eroded, low pay salary in MY, new properties taken up by foreigners instead of locals... Very harsh for malaysians sad.gif
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The trick is to get the aforementioned assets before the foreigners. Leave just enough for emergency and bargain hunting.

Hedge your MYR.
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post Sep 7 2020, 05:06 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 7 2020, 05:04 PM)
Impact of qe is different in every country. not all assets is immune to qe.
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I believe no asset is immune to QE. Their prices will all inflate due to the devaluation of money.

As far as I am concern, USD has been depreciating rapidly against other major currencies including MYR, and I attribute this directly to the unlimited QE program (plus maybe because it is also the country worst hit by the pandemic).
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post Sep 7 2020, 05:07 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Sep 7 2020, 05:06 PM)
You cant... Malaysians cant afford it. KLCC new properties 90% uptake rate are foreigners. A lot of Malaysians who bought ended up auctioning their properties because our salary is just too low
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Don't be "a lot of Malaysians"...


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post Sep 7 2020, 05:24 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Sep 7 2020, 05:10 PM)
You are certainly right, but with most Malaysians' limited power to buy properties, the HIGHLY INFLATED properties prices now are ONLY supported by foreigners. Can expect them to go south for quite some time, until the purchasing ability and the property price equilibrium normalizes.
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If you look at Hong Kong, South Korea, Vietnam, you can see that property prices can already go beyond the reach of ordinary citizens, and still continue to skyrocket. Of course it may crash one day, some say it is already crashing in some places.

But let me share with you my opinion... I used to also believe that property prices will always go back to equilibrium, but I think otherwise now. I still believe in the long term, supply and demand will reach equilibrium. However, rather than in the form of price, the new equilibrium can be in the form of property becoming smaller, being launched further away from the city, being purchased at a later age, being purchased only with the support of parents, or not being purchased at all by a larger proportion of citizens. Equilibrium will definitely be achieved, but not necessarily in the form of price. This has always been the case. Norms change over time.

Just my 2 cents. But if BNM start doing QE, I will not want to hold a lot of cash.

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post Sep 7 2020, 05:25 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 7 2020, 05:15 PM)
not all assets behave the same, some response to myr depreciation more than another.

for the world economy to recover from this pandemic recession, usd need to appreciate against almost all currencies.
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That I agree. I just don't agree that there is any asset in the world which is "immune" to QE.
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post Sep 7 2020, 05:45 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 7 2020, 05:32 PM)
Comparing our property with hong kong, south korea, etc is as relevant as comparing with property in triang, gua musang, muadzam shah.

it is normal for developer or vendor to maintain price i.e. profit margin and meet buyer's demand by reducing size. as there is no shortage of land in this country, it is a matter of time, developer will launch bigger size at same price. the major issue in this country is low disposable income.
https://m.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_...30454&__tn__=-R
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Wow you know ulu places like Triang. I'm impressed. Are you from Pahang?

But compare city to city la. Maybe don't compare to HK, compare to Ho Chi Min city can right?
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post Sep 7 2020, 05:52 PM

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BNM meeting on 10 Sept. Anyone wanna make a guess?

Maintain?

Cut 25 bp?

Cut 50 bp?



I vote first. Cut 25bp, but hope they cut more


Cut 50bp lailai. rclxm9.gif
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post Sep 7 2020, 07:40 PM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Sep 7 2020, 07:40 PM)
BTW..... about TG....
Is that good or what....? Looks like this was the cause of the shares being monotonous for last few days....?
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Simply due to bonus issue... 6.10 divide by 3 = 2.03...
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post Sep 7 2020, 08:15 PM

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QUOTE(adren1 @ Sep 7 2020, 07:48 PM)
Harga rumah dijangka turun 4.8 peratus
ISNIN, 7 SEPTEMBER 2020 @ 3:56 PM

KUALA LUMPUR: Harga rumah kediaman di Malaysia dijangka turun sehingga 4.8 peratus dalam tempoh 12 bulan akan datang disebabkan oleh pandemik COVID-19.

Indeks Hartanah Kediaman Juwai IQI, yang menjejaki jangkaan industri untuk aktiviti pasaran, sewaan dan harga hartanah bagaimanapun mendapati, harga rumah kediaman dijangka kembali meningkat kepada 10.6 peratus dalam tempoh dua tahun akan datang.

"COVID-19 dan kelembapan ekonomi mempunyai impak negatif yang signifikan terhadap unjuran industri hartanah dari segi harga kediaman untuk 12 bulan akan datang.

"Harga kediaman dijangka turun di peringkat nasional dan di setiap negeri," katanya.

Juwai IQI menjalankan tinjauan secara dalam talian dari 16 Jun dan 10 Ogos lalu membabitkan 344 ejen hartanah Malaysia.

Mengulas lanjut, firma pelaburan hartanah itu berkata, Sabah dan Perak mempunyai unjuran penurunan harga terbesar iaitu sehingga 7.4 peratus manakala Sarawak yang terendah iaitu sebanyak 2.8 peratus.

Bagaimanapun, katanya ejen hartanah melihat kekukuhan asas di pasaran dan menjangkakan pemulihan yang kukuh pada tahun 2022.

"Responden tinjauan mengunjurkan pertumbuhan harga nasional berkembang sebanyak 10.6 peratus sehingga suku ketiga tahun 2022.

"Negeri-negeri dengan unjuran pertumbuhan harga paling kukuh dalam dua tahun akan datang adalah Pulau Pinang dan Perak, dengan pertumbuhan harga masing-masing sebanyak 15.9 peratus dan 14.3 peratus.

"Kuala Lumpur dan Selangor mempunyai unjuran pertumbuhan harga terendah dalam dua tahun akan datang, namun masih pada kadar yang memberangsangkan iaitu 8.5 peratus," katanya.

https://www.bharian.com.my/node/728783/amp
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My Malay bad. Is this guy saying property prices in KL and Selangor prices will increase by 8.5%? Hahahahah super bull market ah?
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post Sep 7 2020, 08:17 PM

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QUOTE(ry8128 @ Sep 7 2020, 08:01 PM)
Tg should be able to hit 1b easily. If below 1b, i will be really really shocked.

Small company like comfort can hit 3x and spmax can hit almost 6x. So its not far fetched to expect tg profit go up by around 4x, more so when its spot order is 30%.

Lets just see how it goes next week.
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The number you quote, 4x. Seems like you know something that you shouldn't discuss in public. cool2.gif
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post Sep 7 2020, 08:44 PM

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QUOTE(adren1 @ Sep 7 2020, 08:36 PM)
no lol
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Google translate gives me this:

"Kuala Lumpur and Selangor have the lowest price growth projections in the next two years, but are still at an encouraging rate of 8.5 percent," he said.

What did he actually said?

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post Sep 7 2020, 10:36 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 7 2020, 09:46 PM)
Until poorperly overhang is reduced substantially, KV poorperly price will remain suppressed, unlikely to rise anytime soon.
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That valuer is living in fantasy land. Very hopefool.


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post Sep 8 2020, 12:04 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 7 2020, 11:51 PM)
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/TOPG:MK

In q3/20; revenue $1,688.32m, net income $347.90m mean opex $1,340.42m per quarter.

Assume all else equal, revenue of $2,200m will give net income $859.58m at best.

at $3,440m p.a net income and p/e ratio of 50 (half of current); share price should be $21.

Syndicate is likely to push price lower to collect before next qr.
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Hahahaha!!
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post Sep 8 2020, 12:09 PM

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QUOTE(lauwenhan @ Sep 8 2020, 11:51 AM)
Don't catch the falling knives. But again you will be rewarded if today is another major correction. Huge bets pay huge rewards. But high risk la. I wish you the best
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You must remember, you claim to be student. You are not Warren Buffett who have proven himself to be a good investor. So not many people are gonna listen to you, whether your intention is in good faith or not.

As far as most people here are concerned, you are just another noise in the market.

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