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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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post Aug 16 2020, 10:32 PM

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In this sentiment still got people dreaming got limit up. shocking.gif

The party has ended. doh.gif
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post Aug 16 2020, 10:40 PM

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QUOTE(chromatino_hex @ Aug 16 2020, 10:40 PM)
tomorrow all in carepls, lkl, comfort. See how it goes
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Lol joker...
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post Aug 17 2020, 04:48 PM

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Another red day for Gloves. With all the pessimistic news being published by the press, I don't expect gloves to go up this week.




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post Aug 17 2020, 04:55 PM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Aug 17 2020, 04:50 PM)
Or until end of month.
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What a disaster for me to buy right after Supermax post record profit bangwall.gif .

Still holding on to TG. Hopefully its the right choice and won't turn out to be like my Sapura Kencana.

Meanwhile, be prepared to hear more "I told you so" from perma-bears.
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post Aug 17 2020, 05:09 PM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Aug 17 2020, 05:06 PM)
You go to see the i3 forums of Supermax and TG. It has descended into anarchy. Like end of days is coming.
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Those who dare to buy now, must have the willingness to hold for 2 quarters at least.

The bear trend is now solidly established. EGM and even the US issue resolved is unlikely to change the bear trend. Can only be reversed by showing growing profit over and over again.


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post Aug 17 2020, 06:51 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 17 2020, 06:25 PM)
i do it in 2 parts.
i hold some, i trade some.
what i hold, breakeven at 22.4x.m which is now.
if it goes below 20, i will hv to consider exiting them.
i bot 2day 21.70, 22.10.
so, i will be ready at 9.00-9.10am! laugh.gif

i m still optimistic there will be a season 2 after egm, split, us ban resolved, QR.
if all that goes bad, anyone will know what to do! biggrin.gif
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Nice... I am done buying at RM20++. Need to conserve $$ to buy into other opportunities when they arise. My strategy next is to either:

1) Reload at RM16-18 range, if it falls to this level
2) Sell half at RM35, and the remaining half at RM40.

If it doesn't reach any of the above level, I am just gonna hold them like how I HODL my btc. 10 years later maybe another pandemic, can ride the wave like how those who hold at RM5 since before pandemic ride the current wave rclxms.gif

Any vaccine news, windfall tax news or any other shit news come out, I will say DR;NS. DIN'T READ; NEVER SELLING.

Global top manufacturer, no need to worry it will go Holland 1.
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post Aug 17 2020, 07:17 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 17 2020, 06:59 PM)
my thinking is not that diff from yours... alto i do not think it will go below 20.

i am looking for 30 or 3x rm10 only... if 36, 46, 136... i happy la... biggrin.gif

that is the whole point... if u think a certain product is a great one, u put yr money in the market leader! why put in 2nd, 3rd, 10th, 25th?!!

also, while i hope many will be right, incl DT... that covid19 et al will magically disappear within the next few months... which means i get to go back to do what i do on a "normal fine day" and  really love that...

i doubt this will be the case... becos if it is, this thing called virus or more specifically the corona family would have been banished from planet earth 2 billion years ago.
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Market very unpredictable 1. Today already 21.40 low. Tmr can be below 20.
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post Aug 17 2020, 07:26 PM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Aug 17 2020, 07:22 PM)
Gloves definitely won't Holland. But will it Holland at the current price is another matter and drop back to pre covid price
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Then hodl until the next demand boom comes or if I see another opportunity.
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post Aug 17 2020, 09:27 PM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Aug 17 2020, 07:51 PM)
If that really happens we are probably dead, literally
LOL syndicate whatever you call them got full time traders and funds to move markets and make Split second decisions. When to buy, when to cut lost, when to TP. most day trading retailers can never win long term.
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Why dead? What the hell you talking about?
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post Aug 17 2020, 09:31 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Aug 17 2020, 08:58 PM)
Stock price doesn't drop continuously, it will rise again. The issue is will current shareholders hold on, buy more or to take opportunity to sell?
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Wrong. Stock price can fall to zero. Especially during recession.
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post Aug 17 2020, 09:36 PM

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QUOTE(skty @ Aug 17 2020, 09:05 PM)
While I am strong believer of the short term growth of glove sector, I am a bit reserved on the long term growth.

China two biggest listed gloves company are pushing hard to venture into nitrile gloves production. Their expansion plan over the next 5 years are ambitious and if you combined with the current ASEAN Big-Five, the industry capacity YoY increase might (I say might because it’s my long term projection, and when you start projecting long term, it’s easier to have more variances if you miscalculate a small tiny part) outperform the glove demand YoY increase.

2nd reason is currently those companies relies heavily on the Taiwan and South Korea company supply on nitrile latex. I don’t know whether have anyone of you done any homework on the material cost. Recently the supply is very tight and material cost will definitely increase soon (although I think it’s negligible compare to the ASP increase). The expansion of China company will make the material supply even more tight and when material demand > supply, price of material will increase and eat into the profit margin of gloves manufacturer.
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I agree with you. As I said earlier, China is a wild card not to be underestimated.

But their production is not up, and won't be up for another year at least. No reason to panic yet. I believe the stock market is future looking, but not that far forward.

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post Aug 17 2020, 09:48 PM

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/k have a quality post that is better than 99% of the posts here.

Source: https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/5011439


GDP growth for selected countries (sorted from highest to lowest)

Q1
Vietnam : +3.82% (10-year low)
Indonesia : +2.97% (weakest since 2001)
Malaysia : +0.7% (weakest since 3Q 2009 )
Philippines : -0.2% (first time negative in 22 years)
South Korea : -1.4% (biggest decline since 4Q 2008)
UK : -2.0%
Thailand : -1.8% (the deepest contraction since the flood-hit fourth quarter of 2011)
Singapore : -2.2% (worst GDP year-on-year contraction since 1Q 2009)
US : -4.8% (lowest level since the 8.4% plunge in Q4 of 2008)
China : -6.8% (first decline since at least 1992, when official quarterly GDP records started)
Hong Kong : -8.9% (biggest fall since the government began tracking comparable data in 1974)

Q2

China : +3.2%
Vietnam : +0.32%
South Korea : -3.3% (worst GDP contraction South Korea has experienced since 1998.)
Indonesia : -5.32% (the lowest since the first quarter of 1999)
Hong Kong : -9.0% (contracted for the fourth straight quarter, only one quarter behind the longest recession on record, when Hong Kong's economy shrank for five quarters in 1998-1999.)
US : -9.5% (steepest decline in nearly 70 years of quarterly data)
Singapore : -13.2% (worst on record)
Phillipines : -16.5% (lowest since 1981)
Malaysia : -17.1% (worst performance in nearly 22 years)
UK : -21.7% ( worst on record )



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post Aug 17 2020, 11:15 PM

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QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Aug 17 2020, 10:44 PM)
These data can Google easily. What's more important is someone does analysis and share findings.
Others can then give counter-argument or their inputs.
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Yes can Google easily. But did you do it?
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post Aug 17 2020, 11:15 PM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Aug 17 2020, 11:08 PM)
The surge for gloves is due to covid 19. What do you think another surge in an unknown disease will do to mankind?
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SARS did not kill us. So did MERS.
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post Aug 17 2020, 11:55 PM

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QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Aug 17 2020, 11:37 PM)
Nope because too boring and not my cup of tea.
GDP also relative. Each country measure differently. Many variables involved. China likely lied anyway.
What's more important is whether countries can rebound and recover (too early to tell).

If I spend time doing deep analysis it better be worthwhile. Like:

1) Analysis of cheapest way of sending money abroad
2) Analysis of the mysterious disappearance of Chinese cellphones early this year
Fewer cellphones = Many dead people?
3) Malaysian banks with great exposure to highly geared Malaysian companies
Others pitched in and I learnt something new. E.g. most GLCs are 'forced' to do businesses with GLC banks
4) WHT impact on ETF returns
Note: I'm lazy to update my latest findings (corrected some errors) because nobody interested or shared anything
5) Are stocks worth buying to corporate raid?
Earlier this year when some penny stocks were as low as RM0.01, I asked whether some stocks were worth buying to corporate raid laugh.gif No replies.
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If you didn't do and share the analysis, the common courtesy would be to say thank you instead of giving a list of things.

This post has been edited by ComingBackSoon: Aug 17 2020, 11:56 PM
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post Aug 18 2020, 12:08 AM

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QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Aug 17 2020, 11:59 PM)
Why must I need to do some analysis to please you?
If someone on /k count the number of raindrops falling, must I?
yawn.gif
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Didn't ask you to do analysis. Comprehension fail. bangwall.gif
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post Aug 18 2020, 12:10 PM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Aug 18 2020, 11:35 AM)
Such is human nature.

When I want to sell you an Iphone 11 Pro Max at a discounted price of RM2000, you said it is too cheap and it must bad quality. You don't want to buy it. But when I offer you the same Iphone 11 one week later for RM10K, you said it must be good quality since it is so expensive. You rush to buy it.

In the same way, many traders and investors lose money. The only parties who make a profit is Bursa Malaysia and the brokerage firms.

If we cannot break this mind set and vicious cycle, it is difficult for us to make money.
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No. I bought more TG when it is discounted.

Was not easy holding though, almost got dissuaded by the perma-bears in this forum. But I will hold until it hits RM35 where I sell half, and RM40 where I sell the remaining half. rclxms.gif


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post Aug 18 2020, 04:02 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Aug 18 2020, 03:49 PM)
Based on market movement today, yesterday should buy, but retailers net sold -465 mil.
One of biggest amount net sell in recent tracking of market participant rate.

While today should sell and take profit yesterday bought, but yet, retailers looks like flocking in again.
I am no surprise if tomorrow stat comes out retailer become biggest net buyer.
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Hindsight is always 20:20 vision.

Not many have the discipline and courage to hold or even buy in a downtrend, especially when the perma-bears around us keep telling us "I told you, I told you".

This post has been edited by ComingBackSoon: Aug 18 2020, 04:03 PM
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post Aug 18 2020, 04:49 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Aug 18 2020, 04:48 PM)
user posted image
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Cheers, perma-bear.
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post Aug 18 2020, 10:57 PM

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QUOTE(Barricade @ Aug 18 2020, 10:16 PM)
LOL. That's a proven fact. All the aunty and uncle will feel it's worth to buy now because it is "cheaper". They have no idea that the value is still the same.
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You don't say aunty uncle. Even my ex-boss who works in the corporate finance department of a leading local IB also say the same thing to me.

"1 lot RM28k? I'm not gonna invest". FYI he still refer 1 lot to mean 1,000 shares.

Even IB ppl also can have this kind of mentality.

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