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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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Yggdrasil
post Aug 14 2020, 12:11 PM

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QUOTE(Marcus5003 @ Aug 14 2020, 11:21 AM)
understand, thanks for your clarification...in small firm and n no chance looking at bank's account in depth.

another last question tongue.gif As I know income is recognised in accrual basis, hence, during the moratorium period, bank still capture those unpaid interest as the operating income rite?

Which mean that operating income will be not affected during the moratorium period, but, additional expenses such as ECL will take place and reduce the net profit.

Not sure my interpretation correct or not, hope can learn from people who know how bank’s account actually work.
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Interest revenue will still be recognised but may be lower.

A debt has carrying amount of RM1,000,000 at 1 Jan 2019.
Loss allowance is RM40,000. EIR=5.0%

At 31 Dec 2020, you reassess changes in credit risk.

Stage 1 scenario
There is no significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition.
But 12-month ECL = RM44,000 at 31 Dec 2019.
I.e. needs to be an increase in allowance of RM4,000.

For 31 Dec 2019
Loss allowance (SOFP)RM44,000
Impairment expense (SOPL) RM4,000
Interest revenue (SOPL)RM50,000 (RM1,000,000 x 5.0%)

Profit=RM50,000-RM4,000=RM46,000

Stage 2 scenario
12-month ECL = RM44,000 at 31 Dec 2019
Lifetime ECL = RM60,000

Due to significant increase in credit risk, loss allowance must = lifetime ECL
I.e. an increase of RM20,000 (RM60,000-RM40,000)

Loss allowance (SOFP)RM60,000
Impairment expense (SOPL) RM20,000
Interest revenue (SOPL)RM50,000 (RM1,000,000 x 5.0%)

Profit=RM50,000-RM20,000=RM30,000

Stage 3 scenario
Got clear evidence of impairment.
12-month ECL = RM44,000 at 31 Dec 2019
Lifetime ECL = RM60,000

Loss allowance (SOFP)RM60,000
Impairment expense (SOPL) RM20,000
Interest revenue (SOPL)RM47,000 [(RM1,000,000-RM60,000) x 5.0%)]

Profit=RM47,000-RM20,000=RM27,000

Profits compared
Stage 1Stage 2Stage 3
RM46,000RM30,000RM27,000
Yggdrasil
post Aug 14 2020, 04:56 PM

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QUOTE(quintesson @ Aug 14 2020, 04:51 PM)
market close at 5 or 4.45pm? why now suddenly all seems halted?
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4:45pm halt for final trade at closing price
4:50pm can still enter trade but all transaction are done at closing price

This post has been edited by Yggdrasil: Aug 14 2020, 04:58 PM
Yggdrasil
post Aug 14 2020, 04:56 PM

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double post

This post has been edited by Yggdrasil: Aug 14 2020, 04:56 PM
Yggdrasil
post Aug 14 2020, 11:14 PM

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QUOTE(Speedstar1 @ Aug 14 2020, 10:49 PM)
Where did you get this info that hospitals are buying 12 months stock of gloves?

They can order 100 years worth of stocks but there just isn't enough supply for the next 12 months. This hasn't taken into account new orders constantly coming in every day. In US alone there are more than 6k hospitals

Read the latest kenanga report that factors in all the incoming supply capacity. Not even enough. Haven't taken mass vaccination into consideration yet
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I said might. There I highlighted it for you:

QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Aug 14 2020, 10:29 AM)
Topglove may not peak but it will fall after covid. Also, profit might might fall next quarter if this quarter's profit already included 1 year's supply of gloves. I.e. Q2 2020 outstanding results is because of hospitals buying 1 year supply of gloves. Hence, they don't need to buy anymore in Q3 2020.

Maybank is doing surprisingly well compared to other banks (e.g. CIMB or Alliance) in Q1 2020, despite IFRS 9 requiring early impairment. It even recorded a higher profit, surpassing the previous quarter.

Note: I'm not arguing who's right. I'm just stating facts and info given so far.
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Yggdrasil
post Aug 15 2020, 12:54 AM

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QUOTE(adren1 @ Aug 15 2020, 12:20 AM)
So stupid like he shit for 1 year terus next year no need shit anymore
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Speaking of shit. You see this pic? If people lockdown 1-3 month panic buy 1 year supply toilet roll, what do you think hospitals will do?
I'm not God but there's a possibility. Only dumb people say 100% won't happen.
user posted image
Yggdrasil
post Aug 15 2020, 01:32 AM

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QUOTE(skty @ Aug 15 2020, 01:06 AM)
invest within your circle of competence.

if you don't know about gloves, it's best to avoid them altogether.

if bank is within your circle of competence, you can buy banks stock and wait for the uptrend in bank sector.

there is no right or wrong.

but don't mislead others by saying something that you thought but without further verification.

those who did homework in gloves stock will at least know what you are saying. currently glove business is so easy to estimate the revenue and net profit is because the production = sold out due to demand is 100%.

And yet people still thinking current glove stock is overvalue/too expensive then go and goreng penny stock that are really overvalue.. This kind of sense of investing one day will be disastrous.
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Many here are emotional invested. Cannot stand a bit of criticism.

Just like few days ago they are jumping into penny stocks as if they found gold. Now all quiet already and ranting about their losses.

Currently, I don't hold any glove or bank stocks. I only hold 2 Malaysian stocks and they are totally unrelated to glove or banking sector.

You should disclose your holdings too. Quite sure you're invested. It's in your self-interest to support them.

This post has been edited by Yggdrasil: Aug 15 2020, 01:34 AM
Yggdrasil
post Aug 15 2020, 12:28 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 15 2020, 11:53 AM)
Not sure if this helps to calm gloves investors down, but in amazon, supermax gloves are out of stock, which means demand is still >> supply
https://www.amazon.com/s?k=supermax+glove&c..._ss_ts-o-p_1_14
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Just curious. Why only 2 reviews? hmm.gif

There's a Malaysian listed company that sells on Amazon via it's subsidiary.
Some of their products have 2000+ reviews, much more than this.
Yet, their revenue only RM200m per year.

Glove investors here who really believe they made the right decision, no need to panic.
Just relax no need monitor stock everyday. Go play golf. No need stress to advertise glove 24/7 like a salesman.
5 years later only come back and check value of portfolio.
If wake up 5 years later, TOPGLOV is RM100 you can retire early and I'm happy for you thumbsup.gif
Yggdrasil
post Aug 15 2020, 04:42 PM

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QUOTE(silverwave @ Aug 15 2020, 04:36 PM)
makes sense for margin account but normal cash account?
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There's collateralised non-margin also.

Higher fees than pure cash account but gives you more convenience because no need to wait.
E.g. you have RM10,000 stocks today but RM0 cash. You can sell your RM10,000 stocks today and immediately buy.
No need wait for money to come in.
Yggdrasil
post Aug 15 2020, 11:01 PM

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QUOTE(Sherman Kong @ Aug 15 2020, 10:54 PM)
just wanna ask a noob question, why some stocks on mplus are highlighted in purple colour?
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I don't use M+ but it's Ace Market
http://cms.mplusonline.com.my/getting-star...stock-indicator
Yggdrasil
post Aug 16 2020, 09:12 PM

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QUOTE(yehlai @ Aug 16 2020, 08:39 PM)
Will you guys still buy Apple? the PE still very reasonable compare to Tesla/Amazon
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Just buy NASDAQ, you will have exposure to all 3.
Yggdrasil
post Aug 16 2020, 09:18 PM

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QUOTE(yehlai @ Aug 16 2020, 09:18 PM)
You mean ETF?
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Yeah
Yggdrasil
post Aug 17 2020, 12:23 AM

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QUOTE(PSS2020 @ Aug 16 2020, 10:39 PM)
How about the if no We Chat on Apple phones?
China ppl may dumb Apple phones and use Huawei, Apple worldwide market share may drop?
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Someone made a joke that Apple is seen as a status symbol in China that if WeChat is taken away, then each person will get 2 phones: One iPhone for showing off and one cheap Android just for WeChat purposes.
Yggdrasil
post Aug 17 2020, 01:12 PM

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QUOTE(PSS2020 @ Aug 17 2020, 12:41 PM)
2 weeks old baby on stock trading.
Still holding SM and TG...
My heart seems quite strong despite the roller coaster..
Can't believe fundamentals lose to uncles aunties ><

Plz recommend me more books to read as a beginner.
Yesterday I saw someone said The Intelligent Investor.
More plz.
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If little to no accounting/finance background, then I'd recommend "The Little Book of Valuation: How to Value a Company, Pick a Stock and Profit"
Yggdrasil
post Aug 17 2020, 08:58 PM

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QUOTE(CQT @ Aug 17 2020, 08:53 PM)
Hi I am new in trading. May someone explain to me what is realized loss? I buy 400 unit share at 17.96 but it keep dropping in share price so I decided to sell at 13.66 so in my account show realized loss of Rm-1748. So that mean I had loss my capital or I had loss rm1748 from my capital which is (400x17.96)?

Please enlighten me guys, thanks
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Lost RM1,748 without counting fees yet.
Yggdrasil
post Aug 17 2020, 09:04 PM

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QUOTE(CQT @ Aug 17 2020, 09:02 PM)
Thanks. Is that mean by calculation (400*17.96 = rm7184 which is my capital but now I loss rm1748 from my capital and my capital become rm5436)?

So mean I should get back my rm5436 reduced capital into my trading account?
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Yes. But amount should be lesser than RM5436 because haven't deduct fees yet.
If you need to ask this question, I think you're not ready to buy or sell.
At least, know what you're doing first thumbsup.gif
Yggdrasil
post Aug 17 2020, 10:44 PM

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QUOTE(ComingBackSoon @ Aug 17 2020, 09:48 PM)
/k have a quality post that is better than 99% of the posts here.

Source: https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/5011439
GDP growth for selected countries (sorted from highest to lowest)

Q1
Vietnam : +3.82% (10-year low)
Indonesia : +2.97% (weakest since 2001)
Malaysia : +0.7% (weakest since 3Q 2009 )
Philippines : -0.2% (first time negative in 22 years)
South Korea : -1.4% (biggest decline since 4Q 2008)
UK : -2.0%
Thailand : -1.8% (the deepest contraction since the flood-hit fourth quarter of 2011)
Singapore : -2.2% (worst GDP year-on-year contraction since 1Q 2009)
US : -4.8% (lowest level since the 8.4% plunge in Q4 of 2008)
China : -6.8% (first decline since at least 1992, when official quarterly GDP records started)
Hong Kong : -8.9% (biggest fall since the government began tracking comparable data in 1974)

Q2

China : +3.2%
Vietnam : +0.32%
South Korea : -3.3% (worst GDP contraction South Korea has experienced since 1998.)
Indonesia : -5.32% (the lowest since the first quarter of 1999)
Hong Kong : -9.0% (contracted for the fourth straight quarter, only one quarter behind the longest recession on record, when Hong Kong's economy shrank for five quarters in 1998-1999.)
US : -9.5% (steepest decline in nearly 70 years of quarterly data)
Singapore : -13.2% (worst on record)
Phillipines : -16.5% (lowest since 1981)
Malaysia : -17.1% (worst performance in nearly 22 years)
UK : -21.7% ( worst on record )
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These data can Google easily. What's more important is someone does analysis and share findings.
Others can then give counter-argument or their inputs.
Yggdrasil
post Aug 17 2020, 11:37 PM

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QUOTE(ComingBackSoon @ Aug 17 2020, 11:15 PM)
Yes can Google easily. But did you do it?
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Nope because too boring and not my cup of tea.
GDP also relative. Each country measure differently. Many variables involved. China likely lied anyway.
What's more important is whether countries can rebound and recover (too early to tell).

If I spend time doing deep analysis it better be worthwhile. Like:

1) Analysis of cheapest way of sending money abroad
2) Analysis of the mysterious disappearance of Chinese cellphones early this year
Fewer cellphones = Many dead people?
3) Malaysian banks with great exposure to highly geared Malaysian companies
Others pitched in and I learnt something new. E.g. most GLCs are 'forced' to do businesses with GLC banks
4) WHT impact on ETF returns
Note: I'm lazy to update my latest findings (corrected some errors) because nobody interested or shared anything
5) Are stocks worth buying to corporate raid?
Earlier this year when some penny stocks were as low as RM0.01, I asked whether some stocks were worth buying to corporate raid laugh.gif No replies.
Yggdrasil
post Aug 17 2020, 11:55 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 17 2020, 11:40 PM)
LOL is there such a thing for number 3? Enlighten me pls. I wish to know more. If you dont feel like posting here. PM me
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#3 is nothing much la. I thought can find something interesting since companies list their banks in their annual report.
So it's possible to identify banks with risky lending (i.e. lend to companies that high chance go bankrupt).

I learnt from someone who messaged me:
1) Big GLCs are forced to bank with Maybank as they are official banker of the Government
2) Public Bank has strict collateral of 1:1. If company want borrow RM10m, the company needs to pledge RM10m worth of assets (e.g. land). Other banks allow 1:5 or 1:7 which is why most companies don't bank with Public Bank

Yggdrasil
post Aug 17 2020, 11:59 PM

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QUOTE(ComingBackSoon @ Aug 17 2020, 11:55 PM)
If you didn't do and share the analysis, the common courtesy would be to say thank you instead of giving a list of things.
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Why must I need to do some analysis to please you?
If someone on /k count the number of raindrops falling, must I?
yawn.gif
Yggdrasil
post Aug 18 2020, 12:14 AM

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QUOTE(ComingBackSoon @ Aug 18 2020, 12:08 AM)
Didn't ask you to do analysis. Comprehension fail.  bangwall.gif
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Huh? It's a rhetorical question <-- Google 'rhetorical' if you never heard before

Whatever you win thumbsup.gif
Congrats notworthy.gif notworthy.gif notworthy.gif
lol.gif

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