Stay at sidelines and stop making brokers rich. XD

Today pharma and glove same boat to holland together.

18 month worth of purchase order has been placed with a 30% deposit.

Meanwhile, Maybank is still enjoying low NPL due to moratorium.

Im also stating facts. Cheers

Analyst reports. I read all of them.

Barring any unforeseen circumstances, glove earning is not peaking in 3rd Q 2020, but in 2021. Furthermore, historically glove earning continues to remain elevated 2-3 years past the peak of a pandemic (look at the glove manufacturer's annual report from its 2000 onwards and you will get an indication), before margins collapse due to oversupply. Until another pandemic hits.

That is why I am still betting on gloves. I could be right, I could be wrong. But I'm sticking to my position until something big happens, e.g., glove factory got burned down. And no, unproven vaccine announcement does not materially change my opinion.

Cheers.

This post has been edited by ComingBackSoon: Aug 14 2020, 10:50 AM

Easy to say supply will increase, all retailers know that. But do you know exactly when, and where the extra supply will be coming from? You probably have not done the analysis so let me share this with you:

3Q2020 - TG add 8.8b. Harta add 2b
4Q2020 - Supermax add 2.2b
1Q2021 - TG add 8.6b, Harta add 2b, Kossan add 2b
2Q2021 - TG add 5.2b, Kossan add 2b
3Q2021 - TG add 3.5b, Sri Trang add 1b (Thai manufacturer, very big also - need to look regional), Supermax add 5.2b
4Q2021 - Supermax add 5.1b

Above exclude small manufactuerers

TG's capacity is expanding the fastest because it has started the expansion plan before Covid-19 hit. In this sense they are freaking lucky.

ASP dip, yes I believe that will happen. And Supermax will get hit the worst because they are charging spot pricing. TG already fixed orderbook and price with 30% deposit paid. In other words, the sales is locked unless ASP fall below 30%.

The wild card is of course China. God knows how fast they can ramp up their production, but for now we don't see any real traction. If I get news that the Chinese are not only able to ramp up their capacity quickly, but also able to market their gloves as well to threaten the incumbent players (being able to produce does not equal being able to sell), then I will revise my opinion.

Cheers.

Lol what are you talking about?

He is correct income continues to be accrued. You are also correct that the interest incurred is capitalised.


Dr interest receivable
Cr interest income

That fella damn funny. Still cursing Putin's daughter to die.

Anyway, some Supermax related news.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/high...-appeal-sept-29

Hahahaha to quote my crypto comrades.

DR;NS.

Didn't read, never selling

Seems like it. All cabut liao.

You are really a broken record... same sentence over and over again.

You are wrong... companies that keep making losses with no hope of making profit can drop forever until ZERO. Sapura Kencana is 1 of them.

Meanwhile, Apple shares have been going up forever.

Bearish views are fine. Everyone have different views and opinions. But repeating the same sentence everyday gets a little annoying. Zero value added in his post.

Gosh, not again. Glove share are gonna take few weeks to consolidate now.

Whack Apple only.

Some people just guess when they don't know.

Lol. I would say dont invest in bitcoin if you dont know how its used in the shadow economy.

It is the only reason I hold bitcoins, and made a conscious decision to continue holding each and every bit of my bitcoin during the March crash (while I sold all equities after CNY when the coronavirus news started to get out of control).

As long as a shadow economy exist, bitcoin will continue to be in demand.

Until 2q next year, im either holding all cash, or only cash and glove.

Thanks for sharing. Just read it and it did not change my opinion.

Can please explain why would it?

Sounds very much like Donald Trump.

It is just a flu. It will go away like magic.