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netboy
post Jan 15 2016, 12:07 AM

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It's been a general perception that 2016-2017 will be the time full of upcoming "dead chicken" or "durian runtuh". Especially those waiting for more projects to VP.

Main reason when owners want to let go at a "cheaper" price (dead chicken), is when he/she unable to find tenant to rent or rental unable to cover monthly installments.

So now can't fetch tenants, decides to let go cheaper, what makes you think the price will be lower than their developer price?

Example, bought Pangaea say 2012-2013 at 500K, VP soon market value maybe 600-650K. Desperate ones will let go at probably 550K (slightly below market value). His initial entry price was 500K and struggling to find tenant, what makes you think you can find a tenant that can cover your "dead chicken" at the supposedly below market value of 550K entry price?

Due to significant changes in bank policy in 2012, majority property buyers are generally sufficient with their income especially with branded developers' project. Cheapskates won't enter branded developer, generally will go for cheaper projects of the same vicinity.

Yes during this trying time in the economy, there will be maybe 1 or 2 whom are super desperate to let go at their entry price (note: SUPER DESPERATE), but these are rare gems. I can guarantee you the property market is slowing down, purchasers more cautious and appreciation slow as well. But not yet towards fire sale segment. At least not anytime near next 1 or 2 years.

This post has been edited by netboy: Jan 15 2016, 12:11 AM
netboy
post Jan 15 2016, 12:17 AM

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QUOTE(wanted111who @ Jan 15 2016, 12:10 AM)
we are hoping they let go at snp price minus developer discount.

if they prepare to lose some money, then it is already a plus.
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I give you the benefit of doubt, you're able to take over his property at the same entry price of 2012-2013 (SPA price plus discount). As I already mentioned, if he's already struggling to fetch tenant, what makes you think you can?

Fire sale and "dead chicken" in this trying times effectively means you're able to find one rare gem who are desperate to the point he's willing to sell you just enough to cover his loan outstanding.
netboy
post Jan 15 2016, 12:21 AM

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It is understandable to hold your cash at this point of time and get ready to pounce when rare gem is sighted. Just don't get your hope so high. You'll be disappointed on how well to do the general Malaysians are now. Those you see complaining here and there and struggling to make a living, are just a very small percentage among property buyers in Klang Valley.
netboy
post Jan 15 2016, 12:26 AM

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QUOTE(wanted111who @ Jan 15 2016, 12:19 AM)
do you believe in these saying 'holding power'?
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I also did mentioned earlier regarding developments of branded developer ie. OSK/Tropicana/SPS/INP etc. Buyers who can afford these projects even back in 2012-2013 are already well to do in the first place. They already paying a premium price compared to the next project in the same vicinity from a cheaper developer.

Those with limited holding power rarely will enter branded developments.
netboy
post Jan 15 2016, 12:37 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 15 2016, 12:33 AM)
If they are so good... no need for you to promote lor..results speaks itself..

oug parklane is d best example.. 400k to 500k.. bo lang wanna buy
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Parklane is one of a kind story lol.. Super high density >4K units. Now the place look like some medium cost flat. Lift also broken and dirty. Even if desperate owners now sell at "dead chicken" prices you will think twice to go in, due to stiff competition in terms of rental and future flip.
netboy
post Jan 15 2016, 12:39 AM

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QUOTE(wanted111who @ Jan 15 2016, 12:35 AM)
There are a few factor i factored in when i made my own analysis, and i got my own reason as of why i predict June.

All i can say is i know very well the market back in 2011 and the market today. It's not my intention to kacau anyone cari makan. I'm sorry, I won't discus these anymore. peace thumbup.gif

after these post i'm back to be a /k again..  icon_idea.gif live to troll.
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Disturb who cari makan hehe. I'm just commenting based on my own view too, after seeing too many optimist here waiting for fire sale and dead chickens. No offence smile.gif
netboy
post Jan 15 2016, 01:03 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 15 2016, 07:59 AM)
1 km from oug parklane to main road jln puchong is tiara mutiara 1 and tiara mutiara 2... so many units to0... before tiara mutera is sutera residence... occupancy not even 30% .. 2 years vp

the otherside of oug parklane is PPR flats just across the bridge... ppr flats is fully occupied.. while OUG parklane is not.. why? Pricey... ppr full occupancy... then z residence... leavez... rootz lar.. rainz lar...

these condos zzz...jln puchong gg..

furthet up a bit ... residensi 8... the entrance so small like kedai runcit.. adjacent dah banyak condi lain belakang kfc... same ting here again.. residensi 8 .. anytume got ppl rent and sell.. the other condo old ones like PPR fully occupied

along the stretch no need me to tok.. wat southank residence... dat tesco and studio...saville lar... cypress lar..opposite d mall.. I dun remember so many.. in dat stretch.. older highrise belum cakap.. puchong area belum cakap..

one common ting is dat.. newly finished suffers low occupancy.. reli low... PPPR.. flats all fully occupied.. either ppl have still waiting to buy.. or cant afford those merely 400k to 500k... if later is d issue.. cant afford.. property sure GG... cant rent.. cant sell.. potential buyers cant afford GG
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You are spot in the sense where a certain vicinity (in this example, Jalan puchong) is over crowded. But you also just answered the next concern, which is also directly related to density. Assume many can't hold anymore longer for 2016-2017, there are also many waiting to pounce, after pounce, back to square one, competing for rental again, then holding power shift to your side.

Another 2-3 years, another new group appear again say waiting for bubble burst again and the story continue.

I'd say again, too many people just aren't aware how the general Malaysians are well to do even in the current economy condition. Just remember you're not the only one with cash ready to pounce. After you pounce, make sure you also have holding power to compete for rental with the rest.

netboy
post Jan 15 2016, 02:55 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 15 2016, 02:49 PM)
wow... investment carries risk...

property investment carries risk as well....

in this part... investment is further coupled with excessive speculation ... got money ppl would want to profit and not get stuck like OUG parklane and pay loan (despite they can afford)...

the objective of investment is gain as fast as they can and move on... older units going you know where the market going...

when you see semenyih start building high rise.. sure we know it is GG...

useless to talk my version and yours... results are more important... of course the owners/investors who service loans and agents with low sales majority will know...
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Yup, you are right. Good luck to those who are waiting for dead chickens. I know some have been waiting for almost 4-5 years.

Patience is important, but having an eye for rare gem is key. Good luck all smile.gif
netboy
post Jan 15 2016, 03:07 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 15 2016, 02:57 PM)
do not think property investment like crony project like highway... must profit ... those are big corp and political powered... even new developements they work with banks sure 90% loan..

we are talking about individuals here... high rise in semenyih cost 400k to 500k... very right and good move one...

they believe semenyih will become 'setia alam" wor...
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I've worked in Kajang for 1 1/2 year in 2007, the property market there are very localize, as in majority are local buyers. Most of them are cash rich. I also struggle to see how outsiders (people who are not originally from Kajang area) are able to turn Kajang/Semenyih into the next Setia Alam.

Maybe there'll be a point where Klang valley's population will grow towards there but it will take a very long time. Even Setia Alam's appreciation is not that great. It only boomed for awhile after the Elite exit was open. Thereafter was pretty slow.
netboy
post Jan 15 2016, 03:14 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 15 2016, 03:10 PM)
i stay in kajang since secondary school.. zzz

many of my friends bought semenyih... who lives in kajang .. now vp di.. what they complaint? too far.... i wanna flip only.. salary 3k bought 400k prop 1st phase..

if you really interested they are dying to sell... direct owner i give you...
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That's what I meant lo, majority local buyers. Local buyers already complaining, what more outsiders who fail to do their homework before entering Kajang/Semenyih market.
netboy
post Jan 15 2016, 03:46 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 15 2016, 03:19 PM)
u sure of what you talking or not? u go setia eco hill threads and eco majestic.. how many active monkeys are from kajang? PJ.. cheras.. sunway.. klang got lar..

most holding more than 1 units... minimum 3.. got so many ass to stay around meh? zzz

despite the highway opens.. it is still far category

my sister friends parents first time go semenyih  hantam 3 biji.. reason.. flipping wor... also dying to sell...

where got do homeweok one.. see SP setia... then show house.. then advertisement 40 minutes to KL...zzz haiyoo hantam dulu
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Talking about Kajang/Semenyih, now suddenly Eco.. Aduh. I can't catch what you're talking about.

I also just realised, earlier was talking about Cyber, then you pusing me go Jalan Puchong, then pusing to Semenyih now suddenly pusing me go Eco.

Anyways, bottom line is good luck to everyone who are trying to buy/sell/flip/rent. Just remember to do your homework and have some spare bullets for rainy days.
netboy
post Jan 15 2016, 03:51 PM

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QUOTE(kslee79 @ Jan 15 2016, 03:46 PM)
For one reason that I know of, you don't want to tie down all your good cash with a property that is still being constructed. If unlucky, the developer could abandon project halfway...
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Well, that has always been a risk that comes with under construction property. Do your homework and see which developer that you're buying from. Branded developer's abandoning risk are lower but then you'll be paying premium price. Lesser known developers are cheaper but potential abandon risk higher. Either way, abandon risk is always there.

Wait project complete, you're almost definitely going to pay a higher price than 3-4 years prior when it was launched. If the project completed but result wasn't desirable and owners letting go cheaper, you also won't enter due to the same undesirable reason.
netboy
post Jan 15 2016, 04:11 PM

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QUOTE(shelby_yong @ Jan 15 2016, 04:02 PM)
where the oug parklane thread, like couldnt find it ad
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https://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?act=Sear...ghlite=Parklane
netboy
post Jan 15 2016, 04:16 PM

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I heard about Parklane during its launching time a few years ago and didn't bother after hearing they have >4K units.

Just 2 weeks ago I visited my friend for the first time and step into Parklane. The whole place looks literally like a medium cost apartment development.
netboy
post Jan 16 2016, 02:57 AM

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In the end, some will keep talking no action, while some keep making money. Also some will lose money due to bad decision(s)/luck.

Everyone's risk appetite is different. Everyone's bullet capacity is different. Everyone's preferences are different. Some made some fortune, some made losses. Some missed boat due to sceptism, some escaped potential losses due to good hindsight.

Bash here and there, result still the same.

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