QUOTE(guy3288 @ Jan 26 2016, 12:36 AM)
j.passing.by and lukenn seemed reluctant.
Add 1 more, " past performance is no guarantee of future results", i wont expect more.
Not that i dont believe in UTs, i am yet to see for myself.
Perhaps we can have a show of hands see how many people in here get 20% pa return past 1 yr,
3 yr, 5 yr?
guy3288 I'm not even reluctant. Like I mentioned earlier, for 3Y to get CAGR above 20% is beyond my ability. This is simply because I would never recommend that my clients take on so much risk. Why? Here's the math.
10% loss = 11% gain to break even
20% loss = 25% gain to break even
33% loss = 50% gain to break even
50% loss = 100% gain to break even
The larger the loss, the harder it is to recover. In lay terms, a portfolio with good risk management will eventually outperform a volatile high yield portfolio.
As for 5Y and 10Y, even with a 100% allocation in the top performing fund would yield less than CAGR 20%.
Having said that, my primary goal is to manage down side risk. The up side will take care of itself. My secondary task is to keep the clients discipline. Making the hard decisions to keep them on track, and preventing any emotional knee jerk reactions.
This is probably why my views and strategies differ from the rest of the consultants/forumers/individuals.
Even my clients with the highest risk profile I would cap stddev to 10~12%. I'm guessing if I hit 20% losses, I'd be out of the business. Since I started, I have only had 1 full redemption due to illness, 1 full redemption due to the client leaving the country, and 1 partial redemption during rebalancing for profit taking.