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 USD/MYR drop, v3

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AVFAN
post Dec 11 2015, 11:20 AM

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crude at 36.50 and below may push the rm >4.30 before dec 16/7.

QUOTE
KUALA LUMPUR: Andrew Colquhoun, Fitch Ratings’ head of Asia Pacific sovereign ratings, believes the real risk in Malaysia was that the government would be forced into populist moves and thereby relax its fiscal discipline, according to Bloomberg News. Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak has already been handing out cash handouts to the poor via BR1M (Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia).
Colquhoun thinks the government’s fiscal-deficit target, as one result, may be “a bit higher” than 3.1 per cent. Najib aims to cut the budget shortfall to 3.2 of GDP this year and 3.1 per cent in 2016.
The 29 per cent drop in Brent crude prices this year is the single biggest factor hitting the Malaysian economy as 22 per cent of the Federal Government’s revenue comes from oil-related sources.
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...-risks-in-msia/


ikanbilis
post Dec 11 2015, 05:38 PM

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USD1 = 4.3022
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 11 2015, 05:44 PM

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QUOTE(ikanbilis @ Dec 11 2015, 05:38 PM)
USD1 = 4.3022
*
Quite close to BNM rate of 4.2925 @ 5pm
nexona88
post Dec 11 2015, 05:46 PM

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Oil slump now biggest risk for Malaysia debt as 1MDB mess fixed
QUOTE
“Malaysia is hardly out of the woods,” Nicholas Spiro, a London-based managing director at Spiro Sovereign Strategy, said in a Dec 9 e-mail interview. “The 1MDB asset sales will do little to help bolster growth given the bleak external backdrop of a rapidly slowing Chinese economy and the persistent weakness in commodity markets.”

“While the sale of assets by 1MDB should be viewed as a positive development, there remains uncertainty on the resolution of the 1MDB issue and political pressures for a leadership change,” said Ng Kheng Siang, head of Asia Pacific fixed income at State Street Global Advisors, the asset-management business of State Street Corp. overseeing US$2.2 trillion.

Five-year credit-default swaps on Malaysian government bonds have dropped 42 basis points since Sept 30 to 190, down from a six-year high of 247 in September, CMA prices show. 1MDB’s progress may help improve sentiment in the debt-insurance market but the key driver still remains risk aversion, especially for commodity exporters like Malaysia, according to AllianceBernstein LP.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/o...?type=Corporate
AVFAN
post Dec 11 2015, 09:05 PM

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10 yr mgs 4.34%.

10 Dec 2015 13:00 UTC - 11 Dec 2015 13:02 UTC
USD/MYR close:4.32758 low:4.24706 high:4.32999
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 12 2015, 12:35 AM

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Brent Crude Oil tank 3% to USD38.5 now
MYR may need to say Hello to 4.35 soon
nexona88
post Dec 12 2015, 08:57 PM

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next week the very important week for MYR tongue.gif
@secret@
post Dec 12 2015, 09:27 PM

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guys, I'm extremely cautious on the MYR, SGD, USD and Euro movements.
but I'm no expert.

I'm going to Europe for about 6months on the second half of next year. So yeah I'll need a lot of Euro. What should I do in order to hedge the currency exposure/MYR volatile movement?

Too much information available
- Fed meeting
- Euro QE
- Weak crude ~ ringgit
- Big bank's forecast [and they forecasted USD at MYR2.9 one year ago sad.gif mad.gif ]

Deposit SGD, the stable currency of all? or the strengthening USD?
AVFAN
post Dec 12 2015, 10:13 PM

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QUOTE(@secret@ @ Dec 12 2015, 09:27 PM)
I'm going to Europe for about 6months on the second half of next year. So yeah I'll need a lot of Euro. What should I do in order to hedge the currency exposure/MYR volatile movement?
*
if u r sure u will need euro, a dual currency account may fit yr needs.

i do not use it but i think it should be useful in yr case. not useful for speculation or have no intention to spend a particular foreign currency.

there is thread on that, search for it.
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 13 2015, 12:25 AM

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Hold on tight n b prepare for volatility, if any
@secret@
post Dec 13 2015, 09:38 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 12 2015, 10:13 PM)
if u r sure u will need euro, a dual currency account may fit yr needs.

i do not use it but i think it should be useful in yr case. not useful for speculation or have no intention to spend a particular foreign currency.

there is thread on that, search for it.
*
i'll look into that. thanks smile.gif
nexona88
post Dec 13 2015, 11:02 AM

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We needed to watch the movement next week.. Guess could even reach 4.50 if bad situation..
ikanbilis
post Dec 13 2015, 12:59 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 13 2015, 11:02 AM)
We needed to watch the movement next week.. Guess could even reach 4.50 if bad situation..
*
Reach 4.44 i will remit another USD10k back to malaysia. hopefully the FED will raise rate this week and this will pressure BNM to raise the OPR. Then we will have chance to see bank promo FD at 5%! rclxm9.gif
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 13 2015, 01:04 PM

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QUOTE(ikanbilis @ Dec 13 2015, 12:59 PM)
Reach 4.44 i will remit another USD10k back to malaysia. hopefully the FED will raise rate this week and this will pressure BNM to raise the OPR. Then we will have chance to see bank promo FD at 5%! rclxm9.gif
*
I dun think BNM will raise OPR soon as Bee End is facing difficulty to maintain or grow GDP next yr
nexona88
post Dec 13 2015, 01:48 PM

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QUOTE(ikanbilis @ Dec 13 2015, 12:59 PM)
Reach 4.44 i will remit another USD10k back to malaysia. hopefully the FED will raise rate this week and this will pressure BNM to raise the OPR. Then we will have chance to see bank promo FD at 5%! rclxm9.gif
*
gomen say tenkiu for the usd 10k biggrin.gif well I guess any changes to OPR only in Q2 onwards yawn.gif
[Ancient]-XinG-
post Dec 13 2015, 03:57 PM

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where the quote again in December 2015 will drop till 4.8?
nexona88
post Dec 13 2015, 04:26 PM

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QUOTE(Ancient-XinG- @ Dec 13 2015, 03:57 PM)
where the quote again in December 2015 will drop till 4.8?
*
lol now tat u mention, unker Dreamer mia so long.. no post from him so long. I'm kinda miss the posting biggrin.gif tongue.gif
Kaka23
post Dec 13 2015, 05:07 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 13 2015, 11:02 AM)
We needed to watch the movement next week.. Guess could even reach 4.50 if bad situation..
*
shocking.gif really... why you say so?
nexona88
post Dec 13 2015, 05:47 PM

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QUOTE(Kaka23 @ Dec 13 2015, 05:07 PM)
shocking.gif  really... why you say so?
*
Fed meeting.. even lower oil price can decide myr..
AVFAN
post Dec 13 2015, 06:06 PM

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4.50 is very possible if fed hike rates and crude price go to 32-33 by dec 31.

5.0... will take a lot more - low gdp growth, big budget deficit requiring more and fast debt to fund budget overruns, incr in br1m. and maybe a cut in int rates to promote gdp growth. not likely in early in 2016 but u never know what our gomen is capable of when it comes to spending/throwing money to sustain itself.

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