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 Investors Club V9, Previously known as Traders Kopitiam

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Boon3
post Nov 21 2016, 06:04 PM

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QUOTE(Suicidal Guy @ Nov 21 2016, 03:47 PM)
How is Hevea? Bulih masok again?
*
laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif


Seriously?




SO ....

what's your expectation of the coming quarter profit report?

1) Will Hevea be able to register an improvement/growth in quarterly profits?

2) If it fails to meet expectations.... what would be the market reaction?


Suicidal Guy
post Nov 21 2016, 10:25 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 21 2016, 06:04 PM)
laugh.gif  laugh.gif  laugh.gif  laugh.gif
Seriously?
SO ....

what's your expectation of the coming quarter profit report?

1) Will Hevea be able to register an improvement/growth in quarterly profits?

2) If it fails to meet expectations.... what would be the market reaction?
*
1. Probably yes. Last quarter was down due to closure for maintenance. This quarter shouldn't be disappointing. Plus hoping that Hevea's higher quality product will get more demand. icon_question.gif

2. If fail to meet expectations I think the price will still be supported since our friend USD is up. Many will see it as chance to buy cheap if the price drops.


mikehwy
post Nov 22 2016, 12:20 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 10 2016, 03:22 PM)
Haha... tongue.gif

Tell you what...

Write this down...s ome place.

Come back 3 months time....

Then look 4 look 4 at how the stock did or did not do and compare it with what you wrote....
*
big big TIP!!!
bang hard hard.

Boon3
post Nov 22 2016, 03:06 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Nov 22 2016, 12:20 PM)
big big TIP!!!
bang hard hard.
*
LOL !!!
Boon3
post Nov 23 2016, 08:55 AM

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QUOTE(Suicidal Guy @ Nov 21 2016, 10:25 PM)
1. Probably yes. Last quarter was down due to closure for maintenance. This quarter shouldn't be disappointing. Plus hoping that Hevea's higher quality product will get more demand.  icon_question.gif

2. If fail to meet expectations I think the price will still be supported since our friend USD is up. Many will see it as chance to buy cheap if the price drops.
*
Before the bell....

user posted image

user posted image


Boon3
post Nov 23 2016, 09:58 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 25 2016, 03:54 PM)
FLB again....

yeah, yeah... use trading platform, it shows FLB is trading at a PE of 5x.
Trading of 5x wei.
How can that not be a buy?

That 5x PE is based on trailing eps.

And the trailing eps was boosted by 2 quarters where the USD is much higher than where it is now.

So with the USD not shooting for the sky atm...
Then logically it is NOT WISE to assume and use trailing earnings. (trailing eps at this moment = 27 sens)

Me?
I would assume and project a much lower eps of around 14.5 sen for FY 2016. ( Dude, this is my assumption la. I could be WRONG one! )
Which would be significantly much lower than an EPS of 30.7 sen recorded for FY 2015.

Yes, I am looking at a possible decline of more than 50% in eps.
And mind you, I am assuming that everything else remains pretty much the same, ie a flat sales growth. ( Yes, what about the possibility of negative sales? )
And yes, in other words, I am clearly assuming another huge drop in earnings come the next quarter.

And how would the market react to this?

Me?
I am a trader.
This is clear uncertainties for me.
How could I price in my risk factor given such a scenario?

Why should I hunt now based on simple assumptions of its earnings? ( Mind you, I could easily be wrong ! )

And of course... the chart.
The chart setup is totally awful at this moment.
Why be the hero?
and then what about the next fiscal year, 2017?
me thinking at this moment?
Errr... not sure if FLB could even break 17 sen eps. wink.gif
*** Oooo... this is me talking to myself again tongue.gif ***
*
Checking up on my notes. tongue.gif

FLB turned in an eps of only 2.79 sen

Trailing EPS as suspected, plunged.
Trailing EPS fell from 27 sen to 20.87 sen. (again I would not use the Trailing EPS of 20.87 as a guide!)

Current nine month eps = 10.5 sen.

Current FY eps?
Looks like it would be extremely difficult to pass even 17 sen!!!



Clearly highlights why one cannot totally rely on trailing eps.

** USD is clearly much higher now... which means that going forward, there is a possibility that FLB eps could recover....
** if I have to guess.... oh maybe ... we could see a current FY eps of maybe 14 sen only.....



Suicidal Guy
post Nov 23 2016, 10:48 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 23 2016, 08:55 AM)
Before the bell....

user posted image

user posted image
*
What does these two charts mean to you Boon?
rclxub.gif rclxub.gif rclxub.gif
Boon3
post Nov 23 2016, 12:50 PM

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QUOTE(Suicidal Guy @ Nov 23 2016, 10:48 AM)
What does these two charts mean to you Boon?
rclxub.gif  rclxub.gif  rclxub.gif
*
Lol.

Before the bell, it showed a possibility of a pullback.

Plan. Plan. Plan.

Planning and buying correctly solves most problems/difficult decisions.


If you have or if you wanted to buy, you should have consider the risk of a lower/flat earnings from Hevea, as during this reporting period, the ringgit was rather higher compared to the previous year.

Tricky?

Yes, on one hand, one might consider Hevea as buy cos one might easily deduct the possibility of stronger future earnings due to current forex prices but on the other hand one should also need to consider the negative market reaction should Hevea report in a lacklustre earnings this month.

If no plan....
Now susah a little bit.....
Since Hevea's price has now dropped 3 days....


icon_rolleyes.gif
Suicidal Guy
post Nov 23 2016, 04:21 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 23 2016, 12:50 PM)
Lol.

Before the bell, it showed a possibility of a pullback.

Plan. Plan. Plan.

Planning and buying correctly solves most problems/difficult decisions.
If you have or if you wanted to buy, you should have consider the risk of a lower/flat earnings from Hevea, as during this reporting period, the ringgit was rather higher compared to the previous year.

Tricky?

Yes, on one hand, one might consider Hevea as buy cos one might easily deduct the possibility of stronger future earnings due to current forex prices but on the other hand one should also need to consider the negative market reaction should Hevea report in a lacklustre earnings this month.

If no plan....
Now susah a little bit.....
Since Hevea's price  has now dropped 3 days....
icon_rolleyes.gif
*
Yes.. rather tricky.. so are you saying that it is better to wait for results to be out first before making any move? if we are expecting strong quarter results, does the same still hold?


Boon3
post Nov 23 2016, 04:36 PM

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QUOTE(Suicidal Guy @ Nov 23 2016, 04:21 PM)
Yes.. rather tricky.. so are you saying that it is better to wait for results to be out first before making any move? if we are expecting strong quarter results, does the same still hold?
*
Your game plan is NOT me. tongue.gif


Suicidal Guy
post Nov 24 2016, 12:11 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 23 2016, 04:36 PM)
Your game plan is NOT me. tongue.gif
*
laugh.gif
WinkyJr
post Nov 24 2016, 11:21 AM

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anyone eyeing for VIVOCOM q3 report?
Boon3
post Nov 24 2016, 11:27 AM

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QUOTE(WinkyJr @ Nov 24 2016, 11:21 AM)
anyone eyeing for VIVOCOM q3 report?
*
Nope.

Tell us your expectations.
WinkyJr
post Nov 24 2016, 11:35 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 24 2016, 11:27 AM)
Nope.

Tell us your expectations.
*
looking at previous 2015 q3 (good result), after the report came out, the price go south, but going up sharply 2 weeks before the report come out and got UMA.
as for 2016 q3, the price is going sideways from the start of nov until now despite of good q1 & q2 report..
probably 'they' playsafe to avoid another UMA and kaw2 buy a few days before report come out

dunno

just my 2c
Boon3
post Nov 24 2016, 11:58 AM

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QUOTE(WinkyJr @ Nov 24 2016, 11:35 AM)
looking at previous 2015 q3 (good result), after the report came out, the price go south, but going up sharply 2 weeks before the report come out and got UMA.
as for 2016 q3, the price is going sideways from the start of nov until now despite of good q1 & q2 report..
probably 'they' playsafe to avoid another UMA and kaw2 buy a few days before report come out

dunno

just my 2c
*
2015 q3 compared with 2016 q3 ?

!!!!!

For this stock you cannot make such comparison.

Do research...go find out why.
WinkyJr
post Nov 24 2016, 12:01 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 24 2016, 11:58 AM)
2015 q3 compared with 2016 q3 ?

!!!!!

For this stock you cannot make such comparison.

Do research...go find out why.
*
will find out why
tq boon!


max_cavalera
post Nov 24 2016, 12:39 PM

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QUOTE(Suicidal Guy @ Nov 21 2016, 11:25 PM)
1. Probably yes. Last quarter was down due to closure for maintenance. This quarter shouldn't be disappointing. Plus hoping that Hevea's higher quality product will get more demand.  icon_question.gif

2. If fail to meet expectations I think the price will still be supported since our friend USD is up. Many will see it as chance to buy cheap if the price drops.
*
Latest quarterly report earning not encouraging bro...
Just maintaining last year figure....

I could be wrong but expect a sideway trading for this stock the next 3 months 😅
Suicidal Guy
post Nov 25 2016, 01:47 PM

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QUOTE(max_cavalera @ Nov 24 2016, 12:39 PM)
Latest quarterly report earning not encouraging bro...
Just maintaining last year figure....

I could be wrong but expect a sideway trading for this stock the next 3 months 😅
*
Yup. Latest QR is flat. Cimb report mention hevea have increased their chipboard price. And China is pushing for e0/super e0 products which hevea is producing. Next QR should be good..
max_cavalera
post Nov 25 2016, 03:57 PM

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QUOTE(Suicidal Guy @ Nov 25 2016, 02:47 PM)
Yup. Latest QR is flat. Cimb report mention hevea have increased their chipboard price. And China is pushing for e0/super e0 products which hevea is producing. Next QR should be good..
*
Was skimming thru a lot of company latest quarter performance recently....

My how come most of them eventhough maintain revenue or slightly increased but the nett profit deterioriate badly ah? Is it because of gst? Or the cause of Rm depreiacte greatly against USD making them eat up the nett profit?
Suicidal Guy
post Nov 26 2016, 11:55 PM

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QUOTE(max_cavalera @ Nov 25 2016, 03:57 PM)
Was skimming thru a lot of company latest quarter performance recently....

My how come most of them eventhough maintain revenue or slightly increased but the nett profit deterioriate badly ah? Is it because of gst? Or the cause of Rm depreiacte greatly against USD making them eat up the nett profit?
*
No idea bro.. probably best to ask sifu here.. tongue.gif

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