I'm just sharing my 2 cents. Still long way to go for me. So don't learn any "ajaran sesat" from me.
I should learn from Guppy Master instead. You handle IPOs and CF matters with closed eyes.

and tehoice

TAANN's results is out. So the rumours is true that the results is crappy. Susah dot com.
A bit weird why they rush the disclosure of the announcement. I tot norm would be in the final week for TAANN.

Pink Spider what's your plans for your Maybank, Malakof, Utdplt and Taann? Still intend to keep and buy more?

True story. Can plan for early retirement soon.

Unbilled sales should be based on signed SPAs.
There are some jokers out there that include bookings as well to make them look good.

Note: Unbilled sales is totally different from accrued billings.

Pink Spider Chinwel's results look interesting this round. I can see they are trying to do more local sales, which is a good move. Cash balances and FCF looks very good.
Let's see how 4th qtr goes.

Maybank and Ambank gonna test 52 week low soon.

M & A

FUYOH!!! Last few mins the funds just dumped Armada, CIMB and Maybank. @__@
Crazy stuff.

I bought some MBB at 8.16. Not sure whether will go Holland or not.
Seems like a high chance since support has been tested quite a number of times and overall trend is declining.
Just buy more and keep for Gen Alpha kids.

This post has been edited by TC-Titan: Jun 1 2016, 09:53 AM

Ampun Tuanku~!

Most of your favourite export stocks rising d.
Especially homeboy and Hevea.
Any comment's on CBIP's future plantation activities?

How about consumer stocks like: Cocolnd, Pwroot, OFI
I have been monitoring them for some time. But there's something telling me to chill and wait first.

This post has been edited by TC-Titan: Jun 2 2016, 10:03 AM

Thanks sifu!

Too many people have been harping and covering OKA for quite some time already.
I recall RHB kept on reiterating it's a jewel for the small/mid caps and I also saw a few blogs/write-ups about it.
Apart from the above, it's quite clear-cut that the stock is still on an uptrend and is in play... for now.
I'm not too keen to join the party until the price has retraced a fair bit and till I have done more homework first.

Speaking about construction stocks and building materials....
What's your take on Annjoo, MRCB and Ekovest.
I recall u commented a long time ago on Annjoo's trend.
MRCB was hyped up previously by OTB.
Ekovest on the other hand.... is a different animal if u roughly know LKH's game plan.

My 2 cents:

It's a different ball game IF your family and yourself are solely dependent on how much profit you can bring in on a daily/weekly/monthly/yearly basis from your trades.

Those with a lot of commitments (e.g service home and car loan, fund kid's college and uni education etc) will have even more psychological stress/pressure. Are you confident to be in the right state of mind to trade every day? How about days when you're very sick?

Even if your trading strategy may be good, but there are some situations (black swans) which may out of your expectations (e.g refer to crazy dips in BAT, Gtronic, MISC). Can you cut-loss on time? Willing to make an immediate realised loss from that or wait till price recovers back? Time is money. How much are you willing to cut-loss (e.g 2% to 30%)? To regain back the amounts that you have cut-loss also takes time.

Lot's of things to consider and lot's of battles and wars to choose. Don't need to be a champ to trade every stock out there all the time. And not necessary to follow the crowd to trade the "favourite" stock of the day/week/month.

The best thing you can do now is to gain more knowledge and experience. Read up and go for courses if you need to. Practice "paper trades".
Don't learn the hard way by burning your hard earned money within a few seconds or from just one trade. Ain't worth it.

I used to think 3 to 5 years assessment alone was good.
Then changed it to min 8 to 10 years then add on with TTM. On rare occasions I go beyond 12 years.
Reason bcoz if too short a time frame, what you see may be a beautiful side of a story and not the whole cycle. So there's always a mean reversion and non-linear progress/results. And your assessment must consider those and not merely the beautiful side.

Just my 0.2 cents input.

This post has been edited by TC-Titan: Jun 4 2016, 12:54 PM

Wow, Sifu active early in the morning during weekends and on weekdays. Good stuff!

Smart trader or not.... Gtronic was indeed a tricky stock to trade/invest in.

1. What's the differentiating factor between Gtronic and other mountain climbing stocks before the 4th qtr FY15 and 1st Qtr FY16 announcement results?
Aren't they the same? Multi-year high, strong growth, good cashflow, good mgmt etc.
(Note: I'm ignoring the forex impact, as this happened to all export-oriented comps as well).

2. Entry price plays a big role in whatever decision u want to do - cut loss with minimal or painful losses; sell with good or peanut profits; or just do nothing.

3. From 1 qtrly result alone (4th qtr FY15), could u really have made a disciplined decision to sell?
Or would you have waited for another qtr's results to see how things go?
Or can one even decide to sell even without referring to the qtrly results and sold specifically on 7 or 8 Jan 2016 itself?
Seriously, given Gtronic's track record so far, would u really sell and risk the price rebounding and breaking out at a higher level?

4. How many people could really interpret what the 4th Qtr FY15 results was really telling us with such info:
a. Revenue Q415 vs Q414 - down by 14%, but GP Margin improved from 22% to 30%
b. Net profit Q415 vs Q414 - improved by 3%, NP Margin improved from 17% to 20%.
(Note: I'm ignoring Total comprehensive income as the "other comprehensive income" element is non-distributable)
c. Cash balances and FCF improved.
d. Comments such as:
versus
e. 2.6 mill gain from forex in 4th qtr FY15 alone.

5. If you check into 2015 AR - no mention or indication of 2016 prospects/outlook having any issue.

6. In 1st Qtr FY16, you will see this sentence "reduction in end customers' demand and general slow down in the industry" mentioned a few times. We also saw that mentioned above in 4th Qtr FY15 results.
Why can't they be straight forward to just say they are facing technology obsolescence for some of their products and will need time to create new products plus they are also having some deferment issues for some orders? Makes things easier to understand/comprehend right?

So, after considering the above, is it really easy to spot Mountain Climbers doing the reverse (after ignoring forex element) and can one really sell a stock so easily given the comp's past performance, business model and mgmt credibility?

Any average joe out there without insider info or even specific industry insight would have thought that Gtronic as a market leader in their field and would have done the necessary to avoid their current fiasco. But as usual, nothing is linear forever right?

This post has been edited by TC-Titan: Jun 6 2016, 10:55 AM

Chilllll la!

Yes yes... cari makan memang susah.
Plenty of mistakes to be made and avoided if possible.
Life long learning process... before becoming a sifu that dies cow cow.

What do u think of KESM?

And they still dare to put the TP at 8.00 even after knowing a 20 to 25% production cut was happening...
Susah betul ni.

On KESM, nothing much to say except everything seems good?
But, I find something interesting that so far no one has spoken about (I think so la).
To me... the 3rd qtr FY16 results is not a surprise and not really a big deal.
Just that people forgot to see the real impact going forward from the full acquisition of the NCI in FY15, that was completed on 4thQtrFY15.

New vocabulary acquired.
TP = Toilet paper

I wasn't following Gtronic previously before the crash, so I didn't notice any mention by mgmt on the production cut as per the MBB Research report.
Only begin to be curious with Gtronic after they crash.
And to answer your question, the SELL signal was pretty strong as opposed to the "Buy call" on 11 Jan 2016.

To be fair... apart from the boom boom time... fundamentally Gintonic was good. Double digits for GPM, NPM, ROA, ROE, ROIC. Positive FCF and decent Div Yield. All of this was for quite a number of years...
So if no one paid attention to the MBB report with regards to the production cut, everyone will just continue to hold and assume everything will continue to be OK even if the price dipped for a bit.

My opinion or checklist on KESM may be different from yours or other people ma.
So that's why it is good to discuss in the forum to see if you noted something different based on your experience that may be significant. Just like Gintonic above.
Anyway, even if the stock may appear to be good, I prefer to monitor their price movement and observe how the counter is being played before going in.
More intel/facts on the stock doesn't hurt.

Penta is getting more interesting eh.

tehoice I'm sure u know this one.

Yeap.
Since you're trading AA, does that mean u're also trading Padini?

Speaking about Stock God... pink spider Come back and discuss stocks lo. Don't camp at CC d

There's quite a number. I have mentioned some before. But u can try checking out Litrak and Taliwrks.

Go take up basic to advance charting course. Helps a lot to have this knowledge.
But fully utilising them on the practical side for various "live" scenarios is another story.