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 Capital A Berhad /AirAsia (5099), Asia's largest LCC group

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icemanfx
post Mar 20 2020, 04:50 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 20 2020, 01:58 PM)
The thing is that Airasia got this money to give out as dividends when they sold off their planes to the leasing company.

Prudently, how could they give the money out as dividends when Airasia clearly needed those money.

This was so wrong.
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Major shareholders interest is more important.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Mar 20 2020, 04:51 PM
icemanfx
post Mar 20 2020, 05:22 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 20 2020, 04:57 PM)
Yup. The major shareholders who had the special privilege of subscribing to new shares. Sorry. Lots of new shares.

So if this company in the near future, is of need of a bailout...
How would you feel?
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Sell and avoid this type of plc.
icemanfx
post Mar 20 2020, 05:40 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 20 2020, 05:34 PM)
I wonder how Airbus would feel...

They were the ones footing the sponsorship in millions...
They were the ones paying the fines too for the sponsorship...

LOL!!

Does BDO even understand what corporate governance is?
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Part and parcel of doing business in this country. If the head of gomen could, so are head of GLC and plc. What is so surprise?
icemanfx
post Mar 20 2020, 05:40 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 20 2020, 05:34 PM)
I wonder how Airbus would feel...

They were the ones footing the sponsorship in millions...
They were the ones paying the fines too for the sponsorship...

LOL!!

Does BDO even understand what corporate governance is?
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Part and parcel of doing business in this country. If the head of gomen could, so are head of GLC and plc. What is so surprise?
icemanfx
post Mar 20 2020, 09:52 PM

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QUOTE(Raymond_ACCA @ Mar 20 2020, 09:43 PM)
These are just independent experts hired by them.. not by SC or MACC. Not cleared yet.
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as caterham f1 was a failure, serving "national interest" and in current time of economic crisis, sc and macc are likely to drop the case quietly.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Mar 20 2020, 09:52 PM
icemanfx
post Mar 26 2020, 07:51 PM

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AK aircrafts leasor are foreigners; lease default is unlikely to cause systemic risks to local banks.

The gomen may offer some relief but there is no justification for tax payers to take up AK debts.

There is a high possibility for D7 to clip its wings.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Mar 26 2020, 07:59 PM
icemanfx
post Mar 30 2020, 08:07 PM

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QUOTE(staind @ Mar 30 2020, 06:17 PM)
I think some are buying hoping gomen will bail them out.

Too big to fail kind of thing.
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In most if not all bail out, shareholders will take a hair cut.

QUOTE(paintballunited @ Mar 30 2020, 07:56 PM)
i still dont understand why it hasnt gone down. and from what i see, everyone seems to think that this is a buyer's market. everyone is buying!

amazing...you would think that everyone would be worried but even public bank hasnt gone down. perhaps a lot of people have a lot of money
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There is a s@@ker born everyday, there won't be a shortage of them believe they are better than the professional/expert and could beat the market.
icemanfx
post Mar 31 2020, 12:26 AM

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QUOTE(paintballunited @ Mar 30 2020, 08:25 PM)
for me I just want to know the reason and understand why it hasnt gone below 0.50 - that's all smile.gif or perhaps most people are optimistic about the market.
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If major shareholders pledged their shares to banks at this price, support level will be just above.
icemanfx
post Apr 7 2020, 01:47 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 6 2020, 08:23 AM)
user posted image
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AK need moratorium from aircrafts lessor else could run out of cash. Hence, critical to borrow from banks with gomen guaranteed.
icemanfx
post Apr 7 2020, 02:11 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 7 2020, 02:02 PM)
Take a look at AAX instead. They had already tried asking for deferrals...

https://www.flightglobal.com/strategy/airas.../136882.article

user posted image

As you can see, AAX has a number of lessors... and as you can read from the article, not everyone will agree. If I am the lessor, I would think its wise to just sell the planes....

Borrow from banks with govt guarantee? Interesting but would you, the rakyat be happy that govt is helping a company which TF and his sidekick owns more than 60%? Bailout of 2 who was accused of taking a 50 million bribe? You ok with this? I am not.
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D7 business model is not financially feasible, won't be profitable for next few years. It is better to allow it to fold.

Gomen could charge a premium for its guarantee like insurance company. AK is still liable to banks, is not a bailout or free money like to MH.
icemanfx
post Apr 7 2020, 03:54 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 7 2020, 02:29 PM)
D7?

AK?

laugh.gif sorry do not know what they refer to.....
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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 7 2020, 02:58 PM)
I see.
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If you are not familiar with the business, shouldn't touch the stocks.
icemanfx
post Apr 7 2020, 04:55 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 7 2020, 04:32 PM)
laugh.gif

Never did I mention I will touch AirAsia. I have no interest in it. Seriously. What la.

As for AAX, clearly it was a non investable stock from day one. I dare say so when I am a mere trader.

As for a AirAsia.

Quote: Gomen could charge a premium for its guarantee like insurance company. AK is still liable to banks, is not a bailout or free money like to MH.

The problem with what you mentioned is that because AA adopted the asset light strategy of sale and leaseback, it doesn't have any feasible asset left (if you followed my arguments earlier). Its planes are sold to the lessors. So how could govt even consider giving such a loan guarantee?

And based on AA track record, it definitely does not deserve any bailout at all! That's my opinion and that's what I am stressing.
Got money from sale and leaseback, 5 billion plus, gave it all back as special dividend (a move which clearly benefited the big 2 shareholder!)
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Gomen often issue guarantee for glc (without charging premium), is not unprecedented. AK is a viable business, after economy returned back to normal, it will generate tax, etc for the gomen.

Assets light mean higher return on capital employed, better for shareholders. it is normal for airlines to lease their fleet e.g. MH.

Special dividend was given to all AK shareholders, not limited to 2 shareholders only.

you and i may not like tf, doesn't mean AK is not worth saving.

QUOTE(nexona88 @ Apr 7 2020, 04:33 PM)
lolz..
I don't know want to pity or cry for your noobness...
bib boss @Boon3 knows in & out of AA & its business models..
that's why whenever he post. me look from afar ph34r.gif  sweat.gif
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If he is familiar with airlines business, he should knows iata code.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 7 2020, 05:27 PM
icemanfx
post Apr 7 2020, 05:48 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 7 2020, 05:28 PM)
My focus is on AA and AA alone la. I am talking about the tree and not the forest and in this case, my issue is on AA.

That AA business was a business built on loans. Financially engineered from day one. Viable? Can loan growth go on forever and ever? Clearly, AA should be a classical business case study on how you can go bust if you over relied on loans.

And this wa how AA was forced to go the sale and leaseback. Read my past postings. At it worst, it had less than a billion in cash and over 12 billion in bank debts. How to carry on? Insane plane orders were placed AA were forced to the delivery schedule of new planes and it was up to its nose in debts. This forced them to do the sale and leaseback. This forced them to be at the mercy of many lessors. Now without their planes as asset collateral how can AA get the bank loans?

Now those 2 special loans. Read la my arguments. The markets knew it. Before the special dividends were paid, AA made an outrageous private placement. Now you know private placement tends to benefit the buyers of the placement shares. And the private placement was made just before the special dividends were paid. Who was the private placement investors? Tony and his sidekick.

Iata codes? Lol. Hey obviously I dunno those codes. Should I apologise?
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Any capital intensive company need borrowing to expand, no airlines buy aircraft with cash or 100% shareholders fund. sale and lease back is a way to reduce borrowing because lease is opex.

there is no doubt, those subscribed to private placement had a windfall from special dividend, sc should sanction them.

if you are unhappy with tf's or any major shareholders behaviour, should stay away from their companies, not that you don't have choice.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 7 2020, 05:58 PM
icemanfx
post Apr 7 2020, 06:12 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 7 2020, 06:00 PM)
Well the problem is how AA went about it. It was already overburdened with debts and delivery of new planes. What did Tony do? AA had about 150+ new planes yet to be delivered. Huge debts. And what did he do? He placed a new order worth usd19 billion. Shit load of debts but yet buy new planes.

The next year Airbus made that usd50 million sponsorship to Tony's sports teams. Airbus as we know today was charged with bribery.

Put all this into context and chronicle order... with AA then doing the leaseback... and then the placement of shares... and then special dividends...

Should the country bailout this company, in which the top 2 shareholders stake is more than 60%?
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Many aircraft ordered is option not firm, not all will be delivered and many will be for thailand, etc. popular aircraft like a320 lead time was >2 years and delivery could stretch over many years. it is normal for airlines to replace lease aircraft with own aircraft.

shareholders and company are separate entity. in some country, tf could be instructed to relinquish his executive power in exchange of loan guarantee.

if you are concern about ak debts, wait til you look at some property developers.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 7 2020, 06:13 PM
icemanfx
post Apr 7 2020, 07:26 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 7 2020, 06:46 PM)
I wish to talk only AA and not AK and certainly not property developers.

By the way, I have pointed out that as per last qr, AA debts is relatively low. All the debts had been engineered to leases which stands at over 12 billion. Mind boggling.
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This is typical of sell and lease back exercise. Nothing exceptional or abnormal.
icemanfx
post Apr 7 2020, 08:02 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 7 2020, 07:47 PM)
laugh.gif

Good night.
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Instead of trading online, suggest you to have long lunch with some experience remisier and pick their brains.
icemanfx
post Apr 7 2020, 10:42 PM

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QUOTE(kkk8787 @ Apr 7 2020, 10:31 PM)
I know the answer will be nobody knows.
But just based on your hunch. Do u think air asia will eventually get through this or rather will government allow it to fail.
Is air asia a buy at 0.81 now
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AK is a viable company, was profitable and could be profitable after economy is returned back to normal, the gomen is likely to assist.

as i am not a tf's fan, i don't touch his stocks.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 7 2020, 10:42 PM
icemanfx
post Apr 7 2020, 11:16 PM

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QUOTE(kkk8787 @ Apr 7 2020, 11:04 PM)
Im actually not a fan of his, but as a business entity, it is fine.
Without government help there is no way it will survive?
Anyway say 1 week later tf announces he forgot financial backing or that government is giving a so call soft loan, will the price then appreciate
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Don't under estimate tf's connection, ak brand or his i.b. beside mys gomen soft loan or loan guarantee, tf could tap sovereign wealth funds.
icemanfx
post Apr 7 2020, 11:17 PM

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QUOTE(tangtang22 @ Apr 7 2020, 11:08 PM)
Why should Govt help this private company? Wont it be a moral hazard issue?
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Similar argument could be given on cash payment to b40 and m40 in recent stimulus.
icemanfx
post Apr 7 2020, 11:34 PM

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QUOTE(kkk8787 @ Apr 7 2020, 11:23 PM)
Govenemtn may wanna help but first, will there be political repercussion. Sexondaly does that boost the share price?
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Almost everything in this country could be political issue.

airlines is vulnerable to lock down and restriction, it will take longer than most businesses to return to normal. stock price is more likely to drop than rise in the short term.


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