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 Capital A Berhad /AirAsia (5099), Asia's largest LCC group

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icemanfx
post Apr 8 2020, 02:20 AM

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QUOTE(joeblow @ Apr 8 2020, 02:05 AM)
Since you mention political issue, I am wondering if TF and gang closer to PN or PH? Seems to be closer to PH or playing both sides. I guess at his level should be playing both sides. At the end of the day, is AA too big to fail? Also I could be noob here, TF acts as if AA can continue at least for the next 3 months. Also they seem to want to transit to ecommerce platform! lol. Anyway I am not owning AA, tempted to go in below 50 cents. But now maybe got better value stocks elsewhere.

Fascinating how our airline industry so weak...
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TF is a shrewd businessman, airlines business is highly regulated, he needs to be close to whoever is in power.

It seems there is a strong support to stop the price to drop below 50 cents level.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 8 2020, 02:32 AM
icemanfx
post Apr 8 2020, 07:56 AM

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QUOTE(kkk8787 @ Apr 8 2020, 06:33 AM)
Longer term say 6 months. 81 cent I guess is a buy?
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It is your money.
icemanfx
post Apr 9 2020, 02:25 PM

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QUOTE(Bendan520 @ Apr 9 2020, 10:52 AM)
Right now not Pandemic or not, its right whether our gov will bail them out or not.

If pandemic over (give or take 6 months) people with all their pent up MCO emotional urge to travel will cause tourism market to sky rocket.

But.. not for AA, because our malaysia gov fcks it up.
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Leisure travel will be at bottom of list in economic recession.

QUOTE(Salvador_Dali @ Apr 9 2020, 11:07 AM)
Just look at China once the lockdown ends. tsunami
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These travellers were returning home or work from lockdown.

QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 9 2020, 02:07 PM)
Have you gave it a second thought that perhaps AirAsia current woes were also due to gross management?
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Operation management and investors relationship is different matters.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 9 2020, 02:26 PM
icemanfx
post Apr 9 2020, 02:52 PM

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QUOTE(Bendan520 @ Apr 9 2020, 02:45 PM)
we'll see about it, lockdown more than a month can make people do silly things like the sudden urge to travel.
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Provided their income remain intact and unaffected by economic recession e.g GLC employees and gomen servants.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 9 2020, 02:53 PM
icemanfx
post Apr 10 2020, 03:59 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 10 2020, 10:12 AM)
... which comes the very logical question....

If AA needs to go under, well it failed. Let it go under. Cannot meh?
Capitalism mah... survival of the fittest mah... u fail.. someone else gets the chance. Why not?

Yes... why not let it die...?
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Should tell this to mh.
icemanfx
post Apr 12 2020, 04:30 PM

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QUOTE(joeblow @ Apr 12 2020, 04:20 PM)
This whole credit refund or full refund is stupid since clearly AA doesn't have the resource to process the huge amount of requests. Credit control process takes several layers of check and approval before it gets through.

Since AA relies on automated tools like AVA, they should just allow people to make unlimited changes until the next year. Currently they only allow those flights before end of May to be changed until Oct 2020. They should just change to next year and all flights before the realistic date that people can fly instead of just May. This way they save on resources processing those refunds and make sure there's future demand. Not sure what AA thinking...
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AK expect load to remain poor until school holidays in November 2020. Hence, wanted to fill seats before peak season.

Some airlines voucher valid til June 2021 and 120% value.

During the good time, ak only refund with voucher, what's more when they are bleeding cash.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 12 2020, 04:34 PM
icemanfx
post Apr 12 2020, 04:36 PM

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QUOTE(kkk8787 @ Apr 12 2020, 04:33 PM)
legally I think they are allowed to give credit instead of full refund?
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If one insist on refund but they could charge hefty processing fees and take a few months.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 12 2020, 04:37 PM
icemanfx
post Apr 13 2020, 11:12 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 13 2020, 09:57 AM)
Yes. That was correct. But the incidents I was talking about was b4 2010 (I think) when at one point AirAsia owed almost 100 million to MAHB. And yes, AA were always at odds with MAHB for decades!
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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 13 2020, 10:55 AM)
https://weechookeong.com/2008/07/10/airasia...tony-fernandes/

and then this earlier posting ....

https://weechookeong.com/2008/08/29/tony-fe...gs-bhd-settled/

the second last paragraph ....
just sharing to you....

there are loads of info out there ........
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AK owning airport charges to mahb is a commercial dispute between them, have nothing to do with customers. believe settlement have reached on this.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 13 2020, 11:12 AM
icemanfx
post Apr 13 2020, 11:32 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 13 2020, 11:25 AM)
Er... That was a reply to another posting.

Anyway, of course it's easily to term it as a commercial dispute. But that's not the issue here...

Quote: Its passengers had all paid the airport tax when booking their flights. It is money that they believed was going to the airport, not to AirAsia.


Quote: The question should be asked how could AirAsia owe such a big sum of Airport Taxes, which it has already collected from the passengers.


They collected the money but refused to pay the collected money to MAHB.  How would judge this kind of businessman? Mine? Unscrupulous!

Anyway refer to earlier posting(s) made ....
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tf behaviour is not unique in bursa, there are a few big name plc behave similarly.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 13 2020, 11:33 AM
icemanfx
post Apr 13 2020, 11:48 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 13 2020, 11:35 AM)
That's your excuse? Others do it so it's ok for AirAsia to do it?  ohmy.gif
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On the other hand, you should blast other stocks also.

icemanfx
post Apr 13 2020, 12:35 PM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Apr 13 2020, 12:30 PM)
which other stock collects airport tax from customers but did not pay gov?
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mahb is a plc, is not gomen.
icemanfx
post Apr 13 2020, 12:46 PM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Apr 13 2020, 12:43 PM)
.....and who owns the largest shares in MAHB?
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gomen may be is the controlling shareholder of glc, glc is not gomen.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 13 2020, 12:46 PM
icemanfx
post Apr 13 2020, 01:08 PM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Apr 13 2020, 12:49 PM)
and who amends the law to allow MAHB to collect airport tax..?
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mahb is collecting passenger service charge (psc) not airport tax, transaction between mahb and ak is under commercial contract.

icemanfx
post Apr 13 2020, 01:24 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 13 2020, 01:14 PM)
LOL. I guess I am not the only one bashing AA then. tongue.gif

When you go asset like, I feel that the most important asset left is the cash. That's the last line of defence. But no, AA shot itself in the groin when it decided to give away 5 billion as special dividend. Now it wants help? What's the Cantonese phrase 'Deserve to die'?

Rights issue is one way out. But when you look at the shareholder structure.. Tony and his sidekick, owns more than 60% of AA directly/indirectly. So are these 2 jokers (who benefited the most from the 5 billion special dividend) willing to fork out the money to safe their company? Or do they still believe that Other People Money will save their ass?

They could do a placement of shares to raise money but who would want to buy in an asset light company? And more so in a period such as now when air travel is almost dead for dunno how long....
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ak behaviour is not unique in bursa. How many and which plc in bursa not benefiting the controlling shareholders before minority shareholders?

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 13 2020, 01:25 PM
icemanfx
post Apr 13 2020, 02:42 PM

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QUOTE(yhtan @ Apr 13 2020, 02:08 PM)
Bank will unlikely finance them at this current moment, it is way too high risk, unless u have government as guarantor lah. So the 2 viable options is right issue and private placement to increase their cash holdings.

Remember back in early 2017 tony & kamaruddin did the private placement at RM1.80 per share, it cost them RM1bil and their shareholding increase to 32.18%. Count from there there is total of RM1.30 special dividend and RM0.48 interim & final dividend, make it total of RM1.9bil they received in this 3 years. If he has sincerity, he should call for private placement from their own pocket at least half billion, then seek for government loan or maybe private placement from EPF.

https://ir.airasia.com/major_shareholder.html

http://www.klsescreener.com/v2/stocks/view...ia-group-berhad

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/aira...or-shareholders

Actually i am quite against they going for asset light model, their cost will increase because lessor will need to earn a margin from it.
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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 13 2020, 02:34 PM)
BTW... which is why I am totally against the bailout. Those 2 owns the big chunk of share. Why should govt bailout the 2 big fat cat?
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For reasons, bursa is known as croc pond. Small shareholders can cry foul, protest or what not, has little impact on corporate movers and shakers.

After sometime, when money could be made, all will be forgotten and back to drink from the pond.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 13 2020, 02:42 PM
icemanfx
post Apr 14 2020, 02:58 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 14 2020, 07:45 AM)
Anyway kasi you know la... laugh.gif
user posted image

Those are big numbers. Let's see what happens next 2 quarters.

Many had already stressed that AA gambles way too much on its hedging. I had asked before is AA an airlines or a company that gambles with its hedges....
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Fuel is about 10% to 15% of airlines opex. Airlines only hedge at price that they could be operate profitably. Spot price cheaper than hedging only mean they couldn't take advantage of lower and cheaper price for higher operating profit. Similarly, if ak hedging policy is consistent, they will benefit if oil price rise next year.
icemanfx
post Apr 14 2020, 03:28 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 14 2020, 03:13 PM)
1. First, please know I am only talking about AirAsia and not other airlines. So stop your pointless comparisons.

2. Do at least try to read up or Google AirAsia past history. Airasia had gambled heavily and lost before. It was in the news before. Leopards don't lose its spots.
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Every prudent airlines hedge their fuel and Forex. Similar fuel hedging consequences apply to ak as well as other airlines. Hedge gain when price rise, loss when price drop. As long as they consume all the contract, only mean higher opex.

I don't need to Google for ak past history.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 14 2020, 03:47 PM
icemanfx
post Apr 14 2020, 03:50 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 14 2020, 03:49 PM)
Do you ever try to use Google?

laugh.gif

Kthxbye
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I don't need to Google to know about fuel hedging or ak past history.
icemanfx
post Apr 14 2020, 07:48 PM

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QUOTE(Raymond_ACCA @ Apr 14 2020, 07:08 PM)
Nope. Delta have their own refinery, Spirit does not hedge, Southwest hedge very very minimal. In the past Airlines used to hedge heavily and have been criticised heavily and also had lots of financial losses. The industry has evolved since the overhedging days of the early 2000s
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DL is exceptional among all airlines. SQ, CX, BA, LH, etc do hedge their fuel. it would be irresponsible for any airlines not at all hedge their fuel.

QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 14 2020, 07:35 PM)
Simple questions I can raise...

1. Why all ordered from 1 supplier, Airbus?

2. Yeah, delivery is staggered but why do many planes ordered??

Now when I read how they ordered that 300 planes in 2011 when their existing plane order was more than 200 planes... what logical thinking is there to order that many planes?

And now we know what happened the next year with Airbus making 50 usd million sports sponsorship to teams that AirAsia does not own. Yeah Airbus paid billions in fines fir the bribery charges.

Kinda make sense now, ya?
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Unlike fsc, lcc business model called for simplicity, hence single aircraft type. further, ak could only buy from either airbus or boeing.

many airlines e.g sq dispose or replace their aircraft before d check. aircraft ordered include replacement and for new routes.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Apr 14 2020, 08:12 PM
icemanfx
post Apr 14 2020, 08:20 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 14 2020, 06:48 PM)
The 99 Beeeeeeeeeeeeloiiiiiins screenshot.



user posted image


This should be over 100 Beeeeeeeee come the next qr in May.

Next qr May, shouldn't matter cos the qr is for the period Dec-Feb.
The worrying rpt should be the one in Aug.
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This is committed capex, could be funded by shareholders or borrowing, not yet a liability or assets.

A320 is priced in euro, amount reported fluctuate with MYR Forex rate.

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