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 Capital A Berhad /AirAsia (5099), Asia's largest LCC group

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Boon3
post Apr 7 2020, 05:28 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 7 2020, 04:55 PM)
Gomen often issue guarantee to glc (without charging premium), is not unprecedented. AK is a viable business, after economy returned back to normal, it will generate tax, etc for the gomen.

Assets light mean higher return on capital employed, better for shareholders. it is normal for airlines to lease their fleet e.g. MH.

Special dividend was given to all AK shareholders, not limited to 2 shareholders only.

you and i may not like tf, doesn't mean AK is not worth saving.
If he is familiar with airlines business, he should knows iata code.
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My focus is on AA and AA alone la. I am talking about the tree and not the forest and in this case, my issue is on AA.

That AA business was a business built on loans. Financially engineered from day one. Viable? Can loan growth go on forever and ever? Clearly, AA should be a classical business case study on how you can go bust if you over relied on loans.

And this wa how AA was forced to go the sale and leaseback. Read my past postings. At it worst, it had less than a billion in cash and over 12 billion in bank debts. How to carry on? Insane plane orders were placed AA were forced to the delivery schedule of new planes and it was up to its nose in debts. This forced them to do the sale and leaseback. This forced them to be at the mercy of many lessors. Now without their planes as asset collateral how can AA get the bank loans?

Now those 2 special loans. Read la my arguments. The markets knew it. Before the special dividends were paid, AA made an outrageous private placement. Now you know private placement tends to benefit the buyers of the placement shares. And the private placement was made just before the special dividends were paid. Who was the private placement investors? Tony and his sidekick.

Iata codes? Lol. Hey obviously I dunno those codes. Should I apologise?
Boon3
post Apr 7 2020, 06:00 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 7 2020, 05:48 PM)
Any capital intensive company need borrowing to expand, no airlines buy aircraft with cash or 100% shareholders fund. sale and lease back is a way to reduce borrowing because lease is opex.

there is no doubt, those subscribed to private placement had a windfall from special dividend, sc should sanction them.

for reasons, i don't like and very selective of local stocks. if you are unhappy with tf's behaviour, should stay away from his companies, not that you don't have choice.
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Well the problem is how AA went about it. It was already overburdened with debts and delivery of new planes. What did Tony do? AA had about 150+ new planes yet to be delivered. Huge debts. And what did he do? He placed a new order worth usd19 billion. Shit load of debts but yet buy new planes.

The next year Airbus made that usd50 million sponsorship to Tony's sports teams. Airbus as we know today was charged with bribery.

Put all this into context and chronicle order... with AA then doing the leaseback... and then the placement of shares... and then special dividends...

Should the country bailout this company, in which the top 2 shareholders stake is more than 60%?


Boon3
post Apr 7 2020, 06:46 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 7 2020, 06:12 PM)


if you are concern about ak debts, wait til you look at some property developers.
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I wish to talk only AA and not AK and certainly not property developers.

By the way, I have pointed out that as per last qr, AA debts is relatively low. All the debts had been engineered to leases which stands at over 12 billion. Mind boggling.
Boon3
post Apr 7 2020, 07:47 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 7 2020, 07:26 PM)
This is typical of sell and lease back exercise. Nothing exceptional or abnormal.
*
laugh.gif

Good night.
Boon3
post Apr 9 2020, 10:08 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jul 14 2016, 09:02 AM)
LOL!

Really it doesn't matter?

Look at the core numbers la...

Cash 1.7 Billion ring
Total loans 10.9 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions. (It was reaching 13 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions until he was forced to embark on his sales and leaseback program)

304 fei kei means total capital commitment of 86 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions.

86 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions if AirAsia takes delivery of 304 fei kei.

Go imagine for a moment or two or maybe you need more ....
Can 1.7 Billion buy 86 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions worth of fei kei?

Is the funding possible?

How much will AirAsia debts ballooooon to?

How many Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions?
if that was remotely even possible...

now bring in the super computers to do the math and add in the 100 new fei kei.....

can a company sustain such an illogical and reckless setup?
and so why does it matter?

it matters to me...
cos one day....
AirAsia will be one company drowned in Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions of debts....
and when it does fail.....

what will happen?

gift-a-ton to bailout AirAsia?

will it matters to me then?
... and needless to say I am chill ....
(actually that's such a stupid remark from me... do I go berserk or do I jump myself happily silly when I am a keyboard warrior. LOL! ) .... but unfortunately I have been wide awake and aware of such an unsustainable business model of AirAsia for many years already...

yeah... Tony gifts me the chance to fly cheap....
but I won't idolize just cos of that....
and neither will I idolize him for this recent wonderful, incredible flying stock.

LOL!

what to do...
console.gif
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Bump!

That post was dated 2016.... tongue.gif

Just to say that I wasn't an overnight critic of AA. innocent.gif

This post has been edited by Boon3: Apr 9 2020, 10:09 AM
Boon3
post Apr 9 2020, 10:24 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 9 2020, 10:08 AM)
Bump!

That post was dated 2016.... tongue.gif

Just to say that I wasn't an overnight critic of AA.  innocent.gif
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One more thought....

That capital commitment of new fei kei...ie... the reckless buying of airplanes by Tony... which caused its supplier, Airbus to be charged with bribery corruption.....
in 2016, as noted in the posting, the capital commitment to buy new fei kei was 86 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions.

end 2019... as reported by AA itself .... that figure is now 99 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions.

Can you say 99 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions???

Now here's another kicker...... since then the ringgit has now plunged to 4.3++ ....

which means the reckless boss has now committed AirAsia to buy 100 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions of airplanes.....


You wanna the govt to bailout such a reckless company? ohmy.gif

So with Khazanah (or the govt itself) in deep trouble with MAS, who probably needs a massive injection of cash.... why would the govt involve itself with AA?
Govt so rich ka? Can baioult 2 airplanes company? Oh, then Malindo how? Can it qualify too ah?

With all airplanes not flying, MAHB should also be hurting big time? Does it need a bailout too ah?

Bursa also plenty of company needing bailout help.... bailout them too?

rolleyes.gif
Boon3
post Apr 9 2020, 02:07 PM

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QUOTE(Bendan520 @ Apr 9 2020, 11:21 AM)
Ya but MAS is a dying company due to mismanaging.
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Have you gave it a second thought that perhaps AirAsia current woes were also due to gross management?


Boon3
post Apr 10 2020, 10:12 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 9 2020, 10:24 AM)
One more thought....

That capital commitment of new fei kei...ie... the reckless buying of airplanes by Tony... which caused its supplier, Airbus to be charged with bribery corruption.....
in 2016, as noted in the posting, the capital commitment to buy new fei kei was 86 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions.

end 2019... as reported by AA itself .... that figure is now 99 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions.

Can you say 99 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions???

Now here's another kicker...... since then the ringgit has now plunged to 4.3++ ....

which means the reckless boss has now committed AirAsia to buy 100 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions of airplanes.....
You wanna the govt to bailout such a reckless company?  ohmy.gif

So with Khazanah (or the govt itself) in deep trouble with MAS, who probably needs a massive injection of cash.... why would the govt involve itself with AA?
Govt so rich ka? Can baioult 2 airplanes company? Oh, then Malindo how? Can it qualify too ah?

With all airplanes not flying, MAHB should also be hurting big time? Does it need a bailout too ah?

Bursa also plenty of company needing bailout help.... bailout them too?

rolleyes.gif
*
... which comes the very logical question....

If AA needs to go under, well it failed. Let it go under. Cannot meh?


Capitalism mah... survival of the fittest mah... u fail.. someone else gets the chance. Why not?

Yes... why not let it die...?

Boon3
post Apr 10 2020, 06:29 PM

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QUOTE(Taikor.Taikun @ Apr 10 2020, 06:11 PM)

If it’s true AA being suppressed, better to move out of Msia like Grab did
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Now that's interesting.

Yeah, why don't AA move out? ( However, correct me if I am wrong but Ah Tony did made such a 'threat' b4 didn't he?)

But would it solve AA problems? AA's biggest problem is accelerating cash burn and literally their balls is totally tied by their lessors....

Selling 12 billion worth of planes to lessors and giving away 5 billion from the sale of planes is looking mighty reckless and dumb dumb thing to do.....

( but would the big 2 shareholder care at all since they got a much bigger slice of the dividends paid which was boosted by their super privileged share placement a year b4 the dividends were paid?)
Boon3
post Apr 10 2020, 07:37 PM

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QUOTE(LoTek @ Apr 10 2020, 06:52 PM)
besides Aa malaysia, is there any other Aa subsidary in the world that consistently made a profit?
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But has AA actually consistently made money since listing?


* do strip out those gains from disposals of assets, oil hedging profits/losses other hedging profits/losses and draw out a table.... Bet you would be surprised *
Boon3
post Apr 10 2020, 08:18 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Apr 10 2020, 08:05 PM)
I never cared much about AirAsia as an investment. But as a service provider, I do appreciate them, esp their good network of destinations within Asia pacific region.
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There lies the issue of ppl thinking its good to buy/invest in what they see/use.

Everyone see so many ppl flying. Yeah, lots of ppl flying but how good is AA books?

Ok. How about integrity of the owner. Let's see...

1. AIRBUS and sponsorship. That was plain bribery imo.
2. Did you read about the issue with the F1 team against Tony after Tony sold his shares? So laughable... really.
3. Ah.. the plane that was painted in support of Najib. That didn't bother me cos that's his political right of choice. But what he said after that stinks....

Yeah, AA does provide good cheap flights but... they screwed up themselves. It's time for them to close shop....
Boon3
post Apr 12 2020, 03:44 PM

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What about BigPay?

Lots of BigPay credits? Better check if your credits are 'safe'........

Boon3
post Apr 13 2020, 08:53 AM

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QUOTE(joeblow @ Apr 12 2020, 04:20 PM)
This whole credit refund or full refund is stupid since clearly AA doesn't have the resource to process the huge amount of requests. Credit control process takes several layers of check and approval before it gets through.

Since AA relies on automated tools like AVA, they should just allow people to make unlimited changes until the next year. Currently they only allow those flights before end of May to be changed until Oct 2020. They should just change to next year and all flights before the realistic date that people can fly instead of just May. This way they save on resources processing those refunds and make sure there's future demand. Not sure what AA thinking...
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How about the other logical answers... ie that they are really facing cash burn at an alarming rate? Revenue almost done to zilo. Hardly any flights but all its costs are still running. How many of their lessors are allowing AA to defer their lease payments?

The other answer? They are unscrupulous. If one reflects on what they had done b4 then isn't this not surprising?

For example. Few years back. They biiitched against MAHB against a 7 ringgit airport charges fees. Used the media and social media against MAHB. But then in the midst of all this, on the back of a recovering oil prices, they diam diam increased fuel charges to its air travellers by a whopping 50%. (the airport fees increase was less than 10%!!!)

For example. Did they care about its air travellers when it blatantly imposed credit card charges? More shockingly, Bank Negara said it was illegal to impose those charges. Cheap air travel was hot so AA decide it can do whatever it likes....


Boon3
post Apr 13 2020, 09:00 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 13 2020, 08:53 AM)
How about the other logical answers... ie that they are really facing cash burn at an alarming rate? Revenue almost done to zilo. Hardly any flights but all its costs are still running. How many of their lessors are allowing AA to defer their lease payments?

The other answer? They are unscrupulous. If one reflects on what they had done b4 then isn't this not surprising?

For example. Few years back. They biiitched against MAHB against a 7 ringgit airport charges fees. Used the media and social media against MAHB. But then in the midst of all this, on the back of a recovering oil prices, they diam diam increased fuel charges to its air travellers by a whopping 50%. (the airport fees increase was less than 10%!!!)

For example. Did they care about its air travellers when it blatantly imposed credit card charges? More shockingly, Bank Negara said it was illegal to impose those charges. Cheap air travel was hot so AA decide it can do whatever it likes....
*
... and how about the airport fees it collected but refused to pay MAHB on the pretax that they were in dispute against those charges? Money not theirs collected but refuse to pay MAHB. And that coincided the period where they owed their bankers more than 10 billion!!!
Boon3
post Apr 13 2020, 09:57 AM

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QUOTE(!@#$%^ @ Apr 13 2020, 09:14 AM)
not that i'm siding with AA, but they didn't initially collect the additional tax until the court ruling forced them to pay i think.

https://www.businessinsider.my/a-reluctant-...-strong-protest
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Yes. That was correct. But the incidents I was talking about was b4 2010 (I think) when at one point AirAsia owed almost 100 million to MAHB. And yes, AA were always at odds with MAHB for decades!
Boon3
post Apr 13 2020, 10:55 AM

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QUOTE(!@#$%^ @ Apr 13 2020, 10:04 AM)
owh, okay.
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https://weechookeong.com/2008/07/10/airasia...tony-fernandes/

and then this earlier posting ....

https://weechookeong.com/2008/08/29/tony-fe...gs-bhd-settled/

the second last paragraph ....

QUOTE
I am very certain that the sum owed by AirAsia to MAHB comprised mainly of Airport Taxes and not service charges as claimed. MAHB does not provide services as such. There is another company, which is providing all the services. The question should be asked how could AirAsia owe such a big sum of Airport Taxes, which it has already collected from the passengers.


just sharing to you....

there are loads of info out there ........
Boon3
post Apr 13 2020, 10:58 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 13 2020, 10:55 AM)
https://weechookeong.com/2008/07/10/airasia...tony-fernandes/

and then this earlier posting ....

https://weechookeong.com/2008/08/29/tony-fe...gs-bhd-settled/

the second last paragraph ....
just sharing to you....

there are loads of info out there ........
*
http://www.chichang.net/2009/07/is-taxpaye...r-airasias.html

3rd last paragraph....

QUOTE
What is there to discuss? Airlines collect airport tax from passengers just like your restaurant charges you the 5% government service tax. It is a tax collected by the private sector on behalf of the government. The Customs and Excise department quite rightly goes after restaurants and other businesses who charge that 5% but don’t remit the sum to the government. No negotiations. You remit what you collected. Why the special treatment for AirAsia? Its passengers had all paid the airport tax when booking their flights. It is money that they believed was going to the airport, not to AirAsia.
Boon3
post Apr 13 2020, 11:25 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 13 2020, 11:12 AM)
AK owning airport charges to mahb is a commercial dispute between them, have nothing to do with customers. believe settlement have reached on this.
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Er... That was a reply to another posting.

Anyway, of course it's easily to term it as a commercial dispute. But that's not the issue here...

Quote: Its passengers had all paid the airport tax when booking their flights. It is money that they believed was going to the airport, not to AirAsia.


Quote: The question should be asked how could AirAsia owe such a big sum of Airport Taxes, which it has already collected from the passengers.


They collected the money but refused to pay the collected money to MAHB. How would judge this kind of businessman? Mine? Unscrupulous!

Anyway refer to earlier posting(s) made ....

QUOTE
How about the other logical answers... ie that they are really facing cash burn at an alarming rate? Revenue almost done to zilo. Hardly any flights but all its costs are still running. How many of their lessors are allowing AA to defer their lease payments?

The other answer? They are unscrupulous. If one reflects on what they had done b4 then isn't this not surprising?

For example. Few years back. They biiitched against MAHB against a 7 ringgit airport charges fees. Used the media and social media against MAHB. But then in the midst of all this, on the back of a recovering oil prices, they diam diam increased fuel charges to its air travellers by a whopping 50%. (the airport fees increase was less than 10%!!!)

For example. Did they care about its air travellers when it blatantly imposed credit card charges? More shockingly, Bank Negara said it was illegal to impose those charges. Cheap air travel was hot so AA decide it can do whatever it likes....

... and how about the airport fees it collected but refused to pay MAHB on the pretax that they were in dispute against those charges? Money not theirs collected but refuse to pay MAHB. And that coincided the period where they owed their bankers more than 10 billion!!!





Boon3
post Apr 13 2020, 11:35 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 13 2020, 11:32 AM)
tf behaviour is not unique in bursa, there are a few big name plc behave similarly.
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That's your excuse? Others do it so it's ok for AirAsia to do it? ohmy.gif
Boon3
post Apr 13 2020, 12:26 PM

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QUOTE(yhtan @ Apr 13 2020, 12:08 PM)
The cash they have at Dec 2019 stood at RM2.5bil, i believe it can only last up to 6-9 months and then cash will be depleting. Their major expenses is going to haunt them for sure.

1. Plane leasing (Deferment is still a big question mark)
2. Staff cost (Many of it consist of allowances, force unpaid leave implemented since Feb 2020)
3. Fuel hedging (About 70% fuel price is hedge at $60 per barrel, u don't use the fuel while grounded but u still need to honour the future contract when it is due)
4. Plane maintenance

The rest like aircraft parking fee has waived by MAHB at the moment. If this covid-19 lingering around for another half year, airline business is not going to be rosy for sure.
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You think they did OK in their currency hedging? How about their interest rate hedges? These 2 hedges were bigger than their fuel hedges? And both had big swings too. Was AA on the right side of the hedges?

Ok. Coming quarter. Meeeellions of losses are to be expected but these are the few things I am looking at...

1. Total lease.
2. Total lease paid per quarter.
3. How many leasors are allowing AA to defer payment.
4. Total cash burned for the quarter.
5. The next quarter is even greater as it will be for the period Feb to May.
6. Amount due from its subsidiaries.
7. Hedging. Check the amount hedged vs the Dec qtr. If hedges increased, this showed how aggressively Tony gambled when prices went against him....

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