Can't really understand your question fully but I will try.

MAS stock price never crashed to zero. It was delisted and taken private by Khazanah in 2014.

Google or any search engine is so important, more so when you want to play stocks. You need to get the right info.

So for this instance, try search 'MAS delisted' and you should get proper info. Else, you might get info from someone like me, who could make mistakes and thus feed bad info....

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...ded-from-dec-15

That link above....

Second part...do you mean AirAsia financial back in 2014? Or now?

Third question... pump MAS into AirAsia? I think u are asking pumping MAS into AAX right?

Sorry don't quite understand your Qs there...

This post has been edited by Boon3: Apr 28 2020, 04:33 PM

Reasonable thinking. I mean there's some logic behind the thinking. Given time, surely AA would recover, right? I mean give it long enough time, there's a good chance that AirAsia will be back flying every where....

There's a saying... time is a friend of a good business.... cos good business grows over time. However this theory doesn't hold for the weaker business. Air travel has gone much, much cheaper in time but there's more competition, more airlines adopting the same strategy and extremely competitive in pricing and costs aren't getting cheaper. So in a sense, this is a damn lousy business to be in. You gotta be damn good to survive.

Anyway, let divert and show you a chart. Well, the thinking is about the same. You wanna bet on a 5 year time frame. But before you do that, wouldn't you want to know how AirAsia did exactly 5 years ago?

Chart 1... this is chart shows it as it is.... ie the exact traded stock prices before and after the special dividends which AirAsia paid out...

AA stock performance since 2015. (5 years ago - give and take la)



Chart 2 ... this chart shows after the prices are adjusted after the dividends are paid out....



Now many use charts to predict. Me? I try to understand what the market tells me about the stiock.

ok. First 1 will IGNORE the after Jan 2020 period. Now the chart tells me clearly the good times is over. The stock peaked in early 2018. What are the significant events that lead the stock to fall?

before 2018, You have the hefty special privilege placement of shares to Tony and side kick. Then we have sales of AA own leasing arm. Billion dollar sale. And AirAsia had already embarked on their sale and leaseback of airplanes. Loads of money will be flowing into AirAsia (how convenient the share placement to Tony). Speculation was so panas that AA was giving away 'free money' back to shareholders. Of course, the greed of money drove the stock higher....

the stock then started paying the special dividend of 40 sen on Dec 2018 and another 90 sen on Jul 2019.

so despite all the market feel good news, the stock had been declining.

So base on this 5 year time frame, this signals to me is that AA had already 'peaked' since early 2018. And this was before the C19 became full blown....... so would i bet that the next 5 year time frame, the stock would recover and fly higher?

That's my opinion... 3 sen nia ...... what's yours?

Yea, base on this, would you dare bet on a horse that is already weak since 2018?

No other stock to bet on?

Anyway, as it is, with no 100% vaccine, no one will be gung ho on air travel. Every country will have their own way on dealing with the virus. Some will impose quarantines on visitors from overseas. If there's a 2 week quarantine on arrivals, how many air travelers would want to fly to that country? What if some country impose a no fly zone? And surely, once air travel continues, airlines will resume their price wars to seduce air travel. What about social distancing on flights? If there is, there will be plenty of empty seats per flight. When do you expect normal air travel to continue?

So many questions/doubts yes?

Now back to AirAsia. The next QR wont be that bad, since we will still see some revenue, since the QR is for Dec 2019 to Feb 2020 period. The bad and worrying one is for the current months, when AA is practically not flying. That report only comes in Aug 2020.

So if you wanna bet, don't you think it's a safer bet to bet after Aug 2020 qr report? Betting now, the risk are aplenty. So much worry. Can AA survive? If not, how bad a bailout is required? etc etc etc .....

Anyway, sorry for long post.

GL

As mentioned earlier...

The next QR wont be that bad, since we will still see some revenue, since the QR is for Dec 2019 to Feb 2020 period. The bad and worrying one is for the current months, when AA is practically not flying. That report only comes in Aug 2020.

Eyes will be on his sidekick statement on its furl hedge



https://www.nst.com.my/business/2020/04/588...rasias-expenses

Its last qr, it mentioned it had 11.4 million barrel of jet fuel hedged.....

That's what I will be watching....

....... that chapalang F1 team USD50 million 'ahem sponsorship' ....
so we all now that this was part of the corruption investigation where Airbus agreed to pay over USD3.9 billion in fines.....

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/airbus-agree...y-and-itar-case

On a separate note...

What is even more interesting is the news on AirAsia chairman who paid RM364 million for insider trading.... (no mention on this thread? )

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/aira...insider-trading

Ooolala... didn't realise that they finally released their super delayed report yesterday..

*conspiracy?

Oh... saw Star biz news.. Mmmm

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...n-first-quarter

Company reported 800 million plus in losses and that's the best article headline it can come up with?

**** deleted -

This post has been edited by Boon3: Jul 7 2020, 09:18 AM

This was from Dec QR report from AirAsia...



This was yesterday..



Much easier to see, when one put this together. The focus, imo, should be the fuel contracts due in less than one year.....

The fuel contract due one year in Dec was about 9 million barrels.
Yesterday the contract due one year has shrunk to 3.1 million barrels.

So they settled and cut loss.... according to their report they loss 110 million.

Based on MARCH 31st fair market prices, these fuel contract due less than 1 year, was carrying a loss of 794.9 million.


Now this part does the reader no good. According to the notes, page 30, AirAsia said the following...



process of restructuring the remaining exposure.... lol ... process of cutting loss la....

Therefore, the max loss on fuel hedges on the next quarter should be less than 794.9 million....

We can guestimate a little on them Singapore jet fuel prices....

Recent article... https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/jet-f.../138772.article

This one part...



Jet fuel has some what recovered a bit...

and then we know from articles like this earlier this year... https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/aira...ing-fuel-prices



Therefor, the paper losses from these fuel hedges is gonna be big... but how much did they cut since March 31st? Well, I have a feeling it should not be more than 795 million...



..... my opinion remains... they are way too reckless on their hedging. In fact, in my opinion, they are gambling far too big with these hedges.

And worst still, AirAsia has a history of losing millions and millions with their hedges and they are still doing it.

Google AirAsia hedging losses and you can see article like this...

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/aira...all-fuel-hedges



Never learn from its mistakes, no?

This post has been edited by Boon3: Jul 7 2020, 01:44 PM

All I am saying its overzealous betting in hedges has put the company in very dire position.
It's had a history of huge losses before in hedges and once more its being hit very hard with its hedges.
Having over 11 million in fuel hedges is certainly reckless betting.

And then we have the issue of trust of the owners...
The 2 owners who were alleged for accepting 500mil US in bribes...
Securing a 30% placement to themselves and then have the company embark on a sale and leaseback of its planes, where the money from this fund raising exercise is then splurged on a dividend orgy, thus profiting the 2 owners who got that extra 30% shares.

If they were financially strong, they wouldn't needed that sale and leaseback.

Now they are crying out loud that the company need funding??
(Check the shareholder spread.... any bailout is like bailing out those 2!)

and then one of the boss was found guilty and fined for insider trading!

Think about these issues first .................

Err..... there's way too much numbers in the rpt.... and it's not easy to get an understanding... in fact much easier to 'hide stuff'... this issue has been brought up b4... which was one of the main point brought by one ang moh...

The planes they sold to the leasing companies... err... how come it can declared as a non current asset? Sold already ma... can then flip and coin them as 'right of use assets' meh? No under standing...

The hedges.... they had been hedging over a billion... and for me, what's given (the info) is not enough.... and more so... when they are sitting on more than a billion ringgit in hedging losses...

Paper losses more than a billion in hedging...
Burned 900 million cash for the quarter ending March....
huhu... the lockdown period... no income... how?

Die die die die....

And oh ... they still got the capital commitment to buy new planes is now over 115 Billion!!!!

115 Beeeeeeeeeeeeeeelliiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiooooooooonnnn !!!!




This post has been edited by Boon3: Jul 8 2020, 10:02 AM

Contradictory statement boss.

If the company is very well run.. it wouldn't need any cash injection right?

If the company is very well run.. it wouldn't be starring at over 1 billion in paper loss from hedging as at 31st March 2020.

If the company is very well run.. it boss wouldn't have been accused of the bribery scandal...

i could go on and on.......

Point 2) Don't really agree. If the company is good, it should not have followed what other companies, right? When you place the those hedges, the well run company needs to understand that there is always a chance that they might lose money. The well run company should have realise that. Acknowledging the possible risks and managing the downside risk is most important. Look at it now. It has cut loss on some positions but despite that, as at 31st March, it's starring at those massive paper loss of over 1 billion! How could a well run company leave themselves exposed to such massive losses if their hedges go bad?

In 2009, they lost over 640 million in hedges. Am I wrong to say history repeated itself and that the company never learned from their mistakes?

In the corporate world, are there not companies who abuses their hedges and turn their hedges into a form of gambling?


Point 1) ... I would not compare it to SIA because of AA shareholding structure..



Due to the size of shares owned by boss 1 and boss 2.... for me, a bailout would be a bailout of boss 1 and boss 2.

Do they deserve the bailout?

I would also ask why must bailout? Boss 1 and boss 2 farked up. They had their chance.... so why can't we just let it fail? Is it all that bad to let it fail?
Perhaps another better company could be born from AirAsia failure!

Cos boss 1 and boss 2 each owns for than 30% shares of AA.
Adding it up, they owned more than 60%.
Bailing the company out is like bailing them out.

Less not forget how boss 1 and boss 2 shareholding got so big. They did a 30% placement of new shares to THEMSELVES...
Then started AA on its sale and leaseback.
The money from the sale of planes is supposed to be a safety net but instead they gave out huge dividends which benefited boss 1 and boss 2 since they got a huge chunk of new shares..
Now company is so asset light...
And burning cash so fast...

All the main problem stems from boss 1 and boss 2 piss poor management...
You seriously think they should be bailed out?

I don't.

BTW... the two options I would prefer....

1. Share placement to raise money.
2. Rights issue


I would prefer to see a rights issue...

Of course but since this is a forum, I am only sharing my 4 sen opinion lo.

Blow steam mah...



Oh... and i have always been negative on AirAsia for a couple of years already. It's in this thread.. somewhere... lol...

LOL. Who knows. Maybe boss 1 got die hard fansi?

Anyway, yeah now is different and it's gonna be tough to get financing and this is the bosses fault for adapting the asset light strategy by selling their planes...

You got half a point la but AA mismanagement stinks like hell....

How did AA got so big? Borrow, buy planes, use cash flow to pay finance cost and then borrow again.... They used debts to build the company up.
They kept on buying new planes, they kept on borrowing .....

A well managed company would know this, right?

A well managed company would know that they cannot be so greedy and borrow and buy new planes like peanuts, right?

So today. What's their problem?

Have they buy too many airplanes? Yes, yes, yes! Look at the back order for new planes! It's over 110 Billion la.
AA is committed to buy 110 Billion worth of new airplanes.

Why did AA got so greedy buying new planes?
Aha.... I puked here...



Cos I start to recall the USD50million bribery paid by Airbus.

What if that's part of the reason why AA placed such a huge order of over 200 new planes in 2012 (when their existing order of planes were already over 100 planes (pls check exact figures)) ??

Look at it the company now....

whose fault?

Covid 19 only exposed AA to the world that it was swimming naked la... ie... it showed everyone that it's such a badly managed company.

If they were well managed, the money from the sale and leaseback of their planes, would solved all problems, no?
Instead, we know what happened to those money....


Let this company fail laaaa.... cannot meh?

Oh, if wrong.... thanks for correcting.

My devilish thought is this....

Let boss 1 and boss 2 take up a new placement of 30% new shares... just like a couple years ago.


Last time they issue placement of new shares to themselves ma.. then AA started give out those dividends...

So isn't it fair?



walauehhhh... sky also not dark and I am dreaming and talking in my sleep already....

That one line -> Deliberations on the planned rights issue and stake sales are still ongoing and AirAsia may decide not to proceed, said the people.

That's really the lifeline and some of us talked about the possibility of rights issue in this thread itself. However. that above line is rather suggesting in my opinion. Why wouldn't AirAsia would decide not to proceed? My simple guess? Boss 1 and Boss 2 due to the size of their shareholding might not want to forking out their own money to save AirAsia. Rather telling isn't it?

Holders of the stock should be prepared in the event of a rights issue ... they need to make sure they have enough funds to participate fully

it could be a rather tricky situation...

1. it they don't participate fully in the rights issue, they could face bigger losses (although it can be mitigate some losses by selling the rights to the rights issue...)
long ago, icapital decline a rights issue scenario and it ended up losing about 12million (if i remember correctly)
2. rights issue never a sure win thing. If the shares are Char Kuay Teuw, then good fortune lo... but if turns out to be a SAPNRG, then cry also no tears come out..

and they might think twice.... say if they already dumped in 20k into AA, they might think it is not wise to dump in more money into AA. For example, would they be willing to fork out another, say, 20k into AA?


--------------------


and the question now is... how much money does AA need?

Dec-Mar qr, showed a 900 million cash burn rate..
the next quarter cash burn rate is gonna be intense since planes are not flying...
they got the leases to pay...
they still got loans to pay...
they got that massive paper losses from their hedges to settle (paper loss stood at 1 billion but should be less since jet fuel recovered some what but the losses should probably remain or maybe higher from their interest rates hedges)
salaries to pay....

ok... they probably can get deferral on acceptance of new planes (what to do... backorder of planes is over 110 BILLION (not a typo there)) ... but .... they sooner rather later... they will still ned to take delivery of at least 1 or 2 new planes....

most worrying is their lessors... imo
they are using many lessors from all over the world... not all will be understanding and forgiving .....


... yeah.... they so lucky Bursa announced on April 2020 that pn17 are given one year to get their shit together ...

This post has been edited by Boon3: Jul 9 2020, 10:11 AM