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 Capital A Berhad /AirAsia (5099), Asia's largest LCC group

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TSnexona88
post Apr 11 2016, 06:48 PM

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AirAsia offers 50% discount to affected Rayani Air passengers
QUOTE
AirAsia said the discount is applicable to all Rayani air passengers who hold a confirmed flight booking to and from Kuala Lumpur, Langkawi, Kota Baru, Kuching, and Kota Kinabalu, from today until April 27.

AirAsia said these passengers can present their flight tickets at any of AirAsia Travel & Service Centres at klia2 in Sepang, Langkawi International Airport, Sultan Ismail Petra Airport (Kota Bharu), Kuching International Airport, and Kota Kinabalu International Airport.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/a...?type=Corporate

from shariah to ?? drool.gif devil.gif
TSnexona88
post Apr 29 2016, 11:03 PM

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Annual Report - 2015
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/5081185
TSnexona88
post Apr 30 2016, 03:18 PM

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AirAsia mulling international headquarters in Thailand, Thai DPM says
QUOTE
Low-cost airline AirAsia is mulling the possibility of setting up its Internatioal Headquarters (IHQ) in Thailand as well as building its own airport in the country, said Thai Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak.

The matter, he said, was discussed when AirAsia’s founder and Group Chief Executive Officer Tan Sri Tony Fernandes made a courtesy call on Thai Prime Minister Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha at Government House yesterday.

The budget carrier’s owner, he said, also envisaged the consolidation of its subsidiaries in the region and listing the consolidated company on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) or seeking a dual listing in Malaysia and Thailand.
- See more at: http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia...h.iZ0bxToI.dpuf
TSnexona88
post May 16 2016, 12:48 AM

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AirAsia introduces BIG loyalty card for civil servants
http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2016...civil-servants/
TSnexona88
post May 26 2016, 11:54 PM

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AirAsia Bhd posted an almost six-fold increase in its earnings for the first quarter ended March 31, 2016 to RM877.8mil, mainly due to higher revenue and lower fuel price.

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...lmost-six-fold/
TC-Titan
post May 27 2016, 05:21 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ May 26 2016, 11:54 PM)
AirAsia Bhd posted an almost six-fold increase in its earnings for the first quarter ended March 31, 2016 to RM877.8mil, mainly due to higher revenue and lower fuel price.

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...lmost-six-fold/
*
I heard a number of "value investor" gurus targeting RM3.

Interesting thing is when I browsed thru their qtrly report, the forex gain is 400+mill which is half of the 800+ profit now.

If u look around, there's a lot of hedging and derivatives being used. Some of this figures are seriously damn huge, that I'm not sure whether the comp already has a new business segment specialising and focusing in all this instruments instead of their core biz.
I guess it's a lot of pressure for TF to make AA and AAX appear in the black a.s.a.p eh.
TSnexona88
post May 27 2016, 06:02 PM

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QUOTE(TC-Titan @ May 27 2016, 05:21 PM)
I heard a number of "value investor" gurus targeting RM3.

Interesting thing is when I browsed thru their qtrly report, the forex gain is 400+mill which is half of the 800+ profit now.

If u look around, there's a lot of hedging and derivatives being used. Some of this figures are seriously damn huge, that I'm not sure whether the comp already has a new business segment specialising and focusing in all this instruments instead of their core biz.
I guess it's a lot of pressure for TF to make AA and AAX appear in the black a.s.a.p eh.
*
well AA & AAX have bad record previously. so TF needed to do his level best to "save" the company. so I guess he found out 1 new tactic to make profit & make shareholders happy devil.gif

and juz heard my friend complaining about price hike on AA flight to KB for upcoming Raya. previous years paid around 1.5k for her whole family. Now she needed to pay around 1.9k bruce.gif
tehoice
post May 27 2016, 06:35 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ May 27 2016, 06:02 PM)
well AA & AAX have bad record previously. so TF needed to do his level best to "save" the company. so I guess he found out 1 new tactic to make profit & make shareholders happy devil.gif 

and juz heard my friend complaining about price hike on AA flight to KB for upcoming Raya. previous years paid around 1.5k for her whole family. Now she needed to pay around 1.9k  bruce.gif
*
airport tax also increased la... thats why.... but should be happy with that as an investor...
Boon3
post May 27 2016, 06:46 PM

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QUOTE(TC-Titan @ May 27 2016, 05:21 PM)


Interesting thing is when I browsed thru their qtrly report, the forex gain is 400+mill which is half of the 800+ profit now.

If u look around, there's a lot of hedging and derivatives being used. Some of this figures are seriously damn huge, that I'm not sure whether the comp already has a new business segment specialising and focusing in all this instruments instead of their core biz.
I guess it's a lot of pressure for TF to make AA and AAX appear in the black a.s.a.p eh.
*
LOL!

You seem to bery active here.
Why?
Here nobody la....

Forex gain? If you look at the segmental, it's actually 547 million plus.

But these type of gains.....
it's half wet half dry....
cos with the bulk of its billions and billions of loans still in USD...
AirAsia carries a massive chunk of unrealised loss in forex,

Like I said before...
Tony is STILL pissed poor in hedging.
When USD starts flying...
and the oil starts falling....
he fast hand fast leg...
scare lose....
and he went on a hedging orgy....
started hedging oil at 80++ (ahem... scroll down to the end of the report, look at the fair value of the fuel contract)
and also...
as per report...
AirAsia is still carrying more millions of barrels of fuel contracts.....
looks like AirAsia bought more.... laugh.gif

his crazed action....
was saved by the USD...
cos his hedging of the USD started around 3.20+.

rolleyes.gif

and yeah... you are right to ask...
and you probably wonder if he thinks he is hell of a super derivative trader. (he once almost lost the pants of airasia in hedging that he had to loudly claim that there will be no more bets (yeah.. that was the exact word used. 'bets') for Airasia.... whistling.gif

having said that he made one hell of a move recently....
and that seriously changed the fortunes around for AirAsia. tongue.gif


TC-Titan
post May 27 2016, 07:13 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 27 2016, 06:46 PM)
LOL!

You seem to bery active here.
Why?
Here nobody la....

Forex gain? If you look at the segmental, it's actually 547 million plus.

But these type of gains.....
it's half wet half dry....
cos with the bulk of its billions and billions of loans still in USD...
AirAsia carries a massive chunk of unrealised loss in forex,

Like I said before...
Tony is STILL pissed poor in hedging.
When USD starts flying...
and the oil starts falling....
he fast hand fast leg...
scare lose....
and he went on a hedging orgy....
started hedging oil at 80++ (ahem... scroll down to the end of the report, look at the fair value of the fuel contract)
and also...
as per report...
AirAsia is still carrying more millions of barrels of fuel contracts.....
looks like AirAsia bought more....  laugh.gif

his crazed action....
was saved by the USD...
cos his hedging of the USD started around 3.20+.

rolleyes.gif

and yeah... you are right to ask...
and you probably wonder if he thinks he is hell of a super derivative trader.  (he once almost lost the pants of airasia in hedging that he had to loudly claim that there will be no more bets (yeah.. that was the exact word used. 'bets') for Airasia.... whistling.gif

having said that he made one hell of a move recently....
and that seriously changed the fortunes around for AirAsia. tongue.gif
*
Welcome back and Thanks Sifu for making an appearance to give your insight on AA and Tony!
Hibernate for too long d. Lai come back discuss on stocks.
Well, let's see how Tony continues to perform with his mastermind tactics.

And yeah... he hedged for the next 3 qtrs already laugh.gif

This post has been edited by TC-Titan: May 27 2016, 07:26 PM
Boon3
post May 27 2016, 07:51 PM

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QUOTE(TC-Titan @ May 27 2016, 07:13 PM)

Well, let's see how Tony continues to perform with his mastermind tactics.

And yeah... he hedged for the next 3 qtrs already laugh.gif
*
Mastermind tactics?

laugh.gif

So tell me....
What really changed fir AirAsia?


TC-Titan
post May 28 2016, 11:50 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 27 2016, 07:51 PM)
Mastermind tactics?

laugh.gif

So tell me....
What really changed fir AirAsia?
*
Sifu, I don't really follow AA or AAX as an investment. Not too keen on their industry too.

Not sure, whether the great move you were referring to was on the private placement (559 million new AA shares to Tune Live at RM1.84 per share).
To me, that was a psychological/tactical move to cement the share price above the RM2 mark added along with other tactical moves and sweeteners if you like.

The other key moves to me are as follows:

1. 4th Qtr 15
- hedged approx 58% of the US dollar liabilities
(Note: forex range from start (Oct) to end (Dec) was around 4.40 to 4.29. Lowest was 4.12)
- Fuel hedged for about 5+ months for 1st and 2nd qtr FY16
(Note: crude oil went from 47 to 37).
AA became more creative in this department by entering into Singapore Jet Kerosene fixed swaps (SJKFS), Brent options and Crack swaps arrangements as opposed to just SJKFS as noted in 1st qtr FY15.

VERSUS

2. 1st Qtr 16
- hedged approx 61% of the US dollar liabilities
(Note: forex range went from 4.29 to 3.90)
- Fuel hedged for the next 3 qtrs in FY16.
(Note: crude oil went from 37 to 39. Lowest was around 28).
The arrangement apart from those mentioned above was to add in Brent swaps.

Apart from the improved market sentiment (passengers increase @ load factor) on using AA plus other marketing schemes plus doing other interesting things in Thailand etc, I think the above plays a big role on the results and the next remaining few quarters to come.

Pass or Fail? blush.gif

This post has been edited by TC-Titan: May 28 2016, 11:51 AM
Boon3
post May 28 2016, 01:08 PM

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QUOTE(TC-Titan @ May 28 2016, 11:50 AM)
I don't really follow AA or AAX as an investment. Not too keen on their industry too.


*
Understanding the business model helps.

long post...................................... tongue.gif

Many years ago....

Everyone knows that AA model is one that builds on leverage.
Using other people money to build your dream.
What a dream world.

And that is what Tony did.
He build up AirAsia from scratch with the massive help of borrowings.

As everyone knows...
You cannot borrow and borrow forever.....
and that's when Tony got into trouble few years ago....
With debts reaching 8 billion (or so ... cannot remember precisely) .....
and with the influx of more planes...
and with sales revenue not growing as fast as its debts.....
something had to give.....
Tony were forced to give the order to ask deferment of airplane delivery....
that slowed the borrowings down ( new planes equals many millions of new debt)...
and it worked....

..... and you can see clearly how AirAsia became a darling of many traders in late 2010....


(* its not whether you love or hate the industry but the need to understand what's happening *)

Can you see how much the stock rise?
Look chart......


and as you can see also in the chart....
AirAsia then started falling again in 2011....

After crawling out of the gates of hell of its debts problem...
which was caused by the fact that AirAsia could not possibly take in so many new orders of airplanes.....

AirAsia did the dumb dumb thing once more...
Arrogance I think....
AirAsia in 2011 announced it ordered 200 new planes...
worth over 50 billion ringgit....
so dumbfounding...
cos the old airplanes order....
AirAsia was already having trouble digesting....

that order...iif I would recall....
forced AirAsia to carry a capital commitment to buy new airplanes to be worth around 70+ billion.

Here was a company....
less than a billion cash...
carrying close to 10 billion in loans...
taking a new order, increasing the future airplanes purchase to over 70+ billion........
how to survive?

And that's why the stock tumbled...
and tumbled....

RECENTLY....

what changed?

tongue.gif

SALE and LEASEBACK!

Yup.... survival tactics..... selling own plane and then leasing back.
(makes one wonder...consider that AirAsia still has more than a hundred new planes to take delivery!)

this is where I don't understand...
cos I am not smart enough to be an accountant... tongue.gif
There is lease income...
and also lease expense...

for example... lease income this Q is 322 million (see note 10) (see how big a booster it was to the sales revenue?)
and then there's lease expense.... 111 million (income statement) ....

err.... err ....... (* I wish AirAsia was more transparent and give more details in its leasing. There is major money involved here!)

and then ..... borrowings went down a lot (thanks to the planes sold).....

and also ...
this year....
in Feb....
AirAsia again were forced to eat humble pie...
and asked Airbus to postpone delivery of 7 new airplanes. ( which begs again... why did Tony give that freaking order of 50 billion new airplanes back in 2011? Old order still got, order new one for what F***? )

and boom....
the balance sheet of AirAsia got a whole lot better.....


can this sustain?
in the short short term..... probably yes.
.... until..... airbus starts asking Tony about when he will take delivery of the new airplanes!)


and the stock chart.....

laugh.gif







TC-Titan
post May 28 2016, 02:03 PM

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Sifu, I hampir crap my pants after seeing your nice long post.
Reminds me back of the days when people use to write pen-pal letters manually. biggrin.gif

On more info on the sale and leaseback arrangement can refer to 2015 AR - Note 29 b).

AA's capital commitment hasn't reduced yet but still expanding...
If I'm not mistaken they were suppose to receive 15 A320s and four A320neos in 2016. Not sure how many deferments are there apart from the 7 mentioned by you earlier.

The only way for Uncle Tony to get a really GOOD night's sleep is to cancel some of the plane orders lo. 300+ plane of orders too excessive. No need to be a hero of the planet lo.

My wild guess is he will continue with the sales & leaseback arrangements with all his associates, create more spiderweb Related party transactions, then ultimately list all of them in their respective countries. Win kao kao to the max $$$$$$ after plenty of sleepless nights haha laugh.gif tongue.gif
Not surprised if he has other comps that he wants to bring for listing too (si beh not focused ar this Tony. Hand, leg and balls everywhere).

But hor, I think now he has done well la on the hedging part this round (considered lucky or bold?), I think he will going to continue to play the game until full delivery of all the planes.
Boon3
post May 29 2016, 09:48 AM

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QUOTE(TC-Titan @ May 28 2016, 02:03 PM)
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

On more info on the sale and leaseback arrangement can refer to 2015 AR - Note 29 b).

AA's capital commitment hasn't reduced yet but still expanding...
If I'm not mistaken they were suppose to receive 15 A320s and four A320neos in 2016. Not sure how many deferments are there apart from the 7 mentioned by you earlier.

The only way for Uncle Tony to get a really GOOD night's sleep is to cancel some of the plane orders lo. 300+ plane of orders too excessive. No need to be a hero of the planet lo.

My wild guess is he will continue with the sales & leaseback arrangements with all his associates, create more spiderweb Related party transactions, then ultimately list all of them in their respective countries. Win kao kao to the max $$$$$$ after plenty of sleepless nights haha  laugh.gif  tongue.gif
Not surprised if he has other comps that he wants to bring for listing too (si beh not focused ar this Tony. Hand, leg and balls everywhere). 

But hor, I think now he has done well la on the hedging part this round (considered lucky or bold?), I think he will going to continue to play the game until full delivery of all the planes.
*
You need to look at the bigger picture.
The fact is Tony is pretty much a very arrogant person and his hedging activities over the years shows his reckless gambling behavior.

Instead of focusing on current hedging form/result...
Go dig deeper.
Look at the historical results from AirAsia.
Go make a yearly comparison table...
No need any bloody fancy formula...

find out the past 10 years profit/losses in fuel and forex hedgng.
Go have a look.

For starters.... this wasn't too long ago.
http://themalaysianreserve.com/new/story/a...rex-losses-year



TC-Titan
post May 30 2016, 02:42 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 29 2016, 09:48 AM)
You need to look at the bigger picture.
The fact is Tony is pretty much a very arrogant person and his hedging activities over the years shows his reckless gambling behavior.

Instead of focusing on current hedging form/result...
Go dig deeper.
Look at the historical results from AirAsia.
Go make a yearly comparison table...
No need any bloody fancy formula...

find out the past 10 years profit/losses in fuel and forex hedgng.
Go have a look.

For starters.... this wasn't too long ago.
http://themalaysianreserve.com/new/story/a...rex-losses-year
*
Agreed. Once he starts hedging... difficult to stop to see whether the hedging is really essential for the business or not.

On the leasing part and doing IPO again, check out the latest news.
AirAsia gets US$1 bil offer to acquire leasing company
Boon3
post May 30 2016, 04:02 PM

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QUOTE(TC-Titan @ May 30 2016, 02:42 PM)
Agreed. Once he starts hedging... difficult to stop to see whether the hedging is really essential for the business or not.

*
There's actually a point much about that exercise. tongue.gif

You had pointed out the fact that a huge chunk of AirAsia profit is derived from its foreign gain.

What's more interesting or mind blowing is much of the gains is actually derived from AirAsia borrowings of the USD in the very first place (
so the gains is actually 'savings', would this be correct? and the rest comes from the hedging on USD, hedging of the jet fuel (lol .. Tony is not very good at jet fuel hedging cos he's getting burned many times) and hedging of the interest rates ...

So 3 type of bets... tongue.gif

And as we saw last year...
many, many millions was 'lost' ....

in fact....
every year..... millions were either lost or gain....

so the point is...........................

one cannot or should I say 'must not' treat such gains as extraordinary item gains...

Each year.... millions of forex gain or losses.....

so therefor.....

one needs to included this issue when considering investing/trading in AirAsia.

So if you think about it.....
if one is investing in AirAsia...
isn't one betting on whether Tony win or fail in his hedging bets? rolleyes.gif

so how should or how could one evaluate the risk?



* ps: if one had understood the past and knew what hat happened when AirAsia deferred their delivery of new aircrafts....
the one should realise how big a month it was for AirAsia the stock in Feb 2016.......

laugh.gif

TC-Titan
post May 31 2016, 08:00 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 29 2016, 09:48 AM)
Look at the historical results from AirAsia.
Go make a yearly comparison table...
No need any bloody fancy formula...

find out the past 10 years profit/losses in fuel and forex hedgng.
http://themalaysianreserve.com/new/story/a...rex-losses-year
*
Just for fun. tongue.gif

user posted image
Boon3
post May 31 2016, 03:45 PM

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QUOTE(TC-Titan @ May 31 2016, 08:00 AM)
Just for fun.  tongue.gif

user posted image
*
tongue.gif
TSnexona88
post Jun 10 2016, 10:47 PM

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AirAsia appointing advisors for sale of aircraft leasing biz
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...ft-leasing-biz/

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