LOL!

You seem to bery active here.
Why?
Here nobody la....

Forex gain? If you look at the segmental, it's actually 547 million plus.

But these type of gains.....
it's half wet half dry....
cos with the bulk of its billions and billions of loans still in USD...
AirAsia carries a massive chunk of unrealised loss in forex,

Like I said before...
Tony is STILL pissed poor in hedging.
When USD starts flying...
and the oil starts falling....
he fast hand fast leg...
scare lose....
and he went on a hedging orgy....
started hedging oil at 80++ (ahem... scroll down to the end of the report, look at the fair value of the fuel contract)
and also...
as per report...
AirAsia is still carrying more millions of barrels of fuel contracts.....
looks like AirAsia bought more....

his crazed action....
was saved by the USD...
cos his hedging of the USD started around 3.20+.



and yeah... you are right to ask...
and you probably wonder if he thinks he is hell of a super derivative trader. (he once almost lost the pants of airasia in hedging that he had to loudly claim that there will be no more bets (yeah.. that was the exact word used. 'bets') for Airasia....

having said that he made one hell of a move recently....
and that seriously changed the fortunes around for AirAsia.

Mastermind tactics?



So tell me....
What really changed fir AirAsia?

Understanding the business model helps.

long post......................................

Many years ago....

Everyone knows that AA model is one that builds on leverage.
Using other people money to build your dream.
What a dream world.

And that is what Tony did.
He build up AirAsia from scratch with the massive help of borrowings.

As everyone knows...
You cannot borrow and borrow forever.....
and that's when Tony got into trouble few years ago....
With debts reaching 8 billion (or so ... cannot remember precisely) .....
and with the influx of more planes...
and with sales revenue not growing as fast as its debts.....
something had to give.....
Tony were forced to give the order to ask deferment of airplane delivery....
that slowed the borrowings down ( new planes equals many millions of new debt)...
and it worked....

..... and you can see clearly how AirAsia became a darling of many traders in late 2010....


(* its not whether you love or hate the industry but the need to understand what's happening *)

Can you see how much the stock rise?
Look chart......


and as you can see also in the chart....
AirAsia then started falling again in 2011....

After crawling out of the gates of hell of its debts problem...
which was caused by the fact that AirAsia could not possibly take in so many new orders of airplanes.....

AirAsia did the dumb dumb thing once more...
Arrogance I think....
AirAsia in 2011 announced it ordered 200 new planes...
worth over 50 billion ringgit....
so dumbfounding...
cos the old airplanes order....
AirAsia was already having trouble digesting....

that order...iif I would recall....
forced AirAsia to carry a capital commitment to buy new airplanes to be worth around 70+ billion.

Here was a company....
less than a billion cash...
carrying close to 10 billion in loans...
taking a new order, increasing the future airplanes purchase to over 70+ billion........
how to survive?

And that's why the stock tumbled...
and tumbled....

RECENTLY....

what changed?



SALE and LEASEBACK!

Yup.... survival tactics..... selling own plane and then leasing back.
(makes one wonder...consider that AirAsia still has more than a hundred new planes to take delivery!)

this is where I don't understand...
cos I am not smart enough to be an accountant...
There is lease income...
and also lease expense...

for example... lease income this Q is 322 million (see note 10) (see how big a booster it was to the sales revenue?)
and then there's lease expense.... 111 million (income statement) ....

err.... err ....... (* I wish AirAsia was more transparent and give more details in its leasing. There is major money involved here!)

and then ..... borrowings went down a lot (thanks to the planes sold).....

and also ...
this year....
in Feb....
AirAsia again were forced to eat humble pie...
and asked Airbus to postpone delivery of 7 new airplanes. ( which begs again... why did Tony give that freaking order of 50 billion new airplanes back in 2011? Old order still got, order new one for what F***? )

and boom....
the balance sheet of AirAsia got a whole lot better.....


can this sustain?
in the short short term..... probably yes.
.... until..... airbus starts asking Tony about when he will take delivery of the new airplanes!)


and the stock chart.....

You need to look at the bigger picture.
The fact is Tony is pretty much a very arrogant person and his hedging activities over the years shows his reckless gambling behavior.

Instead of focusing on current hedging form/result...
Go dig deeper.
Look at the historical results from AirAsia.
Go make a yearly comparison table...
No need any bloody fancy formula...

find out the past 10 years profit/losses in fuel and forex hedgng.
Go have a look.

For starters.... this wasn't too long ago.
http://themalaysianreserve.com/new/story/a...rex-losses-year

There's actually a point much about that exercise.

You had pointed out the fact that a huge chunk of AirAsia profit is derived from its foreign gain.

What's more interesting or mind blowing is much of the gains is actually derived from AirAsia borrowings of the USD in the very first place (
so the gains is actually 'savings', would this be correct? and the rest comes from the hedging on USD, hedging of the jet fuel (lol .. Tony is not very good at jet fuel hedging cos he's getting burned many times) and hedging of the interest rates ...

So 3 type of bets...

And as we saw last year...
many, many millions was 'lost' ....

in fact....
every year..... millions were either lost or gain....

so the point is...........................

one cannot or should I say 'must not' treat such gains as extraordinary item gains...

Each year.... millions of forex gain or losses.....

so therefor.....

one needs to included this issue when considering investing/trading in AirAsia.

So if you think about it.....
if one is investing in AirAsia...
isn't one betting on whether Tony win or fail in his hedging bets?

so how should or how could one evaluate the risk?



* ps: if one had understood the past and knew what hat happened when AirAsia deferred their delivery of new aircrafts....
the one should realise how big a month it was for AirAsia the stock in Feb 2016.......

Airasia buys private jet.
LH buys from RH. Duh!

LOL !!!

*wink* *wink*

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/a...imb-ib-research

In his note to investors today, Yap said investors have generally been cautious on the potential orders, fearing that AirAsia is once again over-expanding.
"Investors did not like the additional 100 orders which come at a list price of US$125.7 million each, as they come on top of the undelivered 304 A320neo orders," he said.




304 belum deliver...
Order 100 lagi.....


LOL

How to write the word DIE ah?

100 plans?

what plans?





seriously... do you know the rough implication?


roughly....

304 fei kei not yet taken by AirAsia.
How much? ________

Current cash balance. How much?
Current total loans. How much?

Add in 100 new one at USD$125.7 million each.

125 million x 100 = ..... ?

Add this figure to the 304 fei kei....

how many BEEEEEEEEEEE-lioooooons ?


15 year or 20 year delivery period?
So that BEEEEEEEEEEE-lioooooons divided by say 20. (20 years la. Tony's mouth gung fu so geng)


which means....

AirAsia.... has to find a way.... to beg or borrow.... or maybe gift-a-ton or donatr-ton.......
that much money........
in order to take in delivery of the new fei keis.....



you follow so far ah?





so is Tony's new toy company...
there that the leasing company....
where AirAsia sell and then leaseback own fei kei....
so is this leasing company so geng ?






if you know history...
last time...
the same exact thing happened !




Dejavu baby!

Give u kasar numbers...

Cash 1.7 Billion ring
Total loans 10.9 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions.

304 fei kei ~ 86 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions.



now go add in the 100 new ones.







Tony head always kembang one....

mine too.

Lol !

Typical.
Instead of simply saying chill...
Go do some research la ...

Like i said the same events happened before.
It went overly aggresive....
Bought many fei kei...
Stock tanked big time when its debts went crazy....
He was forced to eat humble pie....
Started to postpone delivery of fei kei...
No choice....
Debts too high...
No money...
Balance sheet imptoved immediately....
Stock soared....
He got cocky....
Lol....typical....
Ordered crazy amount of new fei kei.....
Stock tanked again....
Aax born..
No help...
Lol....
It soon became a penny stock....

Then it was forced to....
Sell and leaseback...
Private placement to raise funds...
Lol...owners ownself bought....
Lol.. owners ownself fry stock or maybe ..what if they could not find any other party to buy?....doesn't matter....
Then...it postoone delivery....

Now is one a trader or is one the stupid keyboard warrior?
Lol......

Stock flew of course....
Hmmmm.....
Why do people study history?

Lol...

Recent events....
Harloo....

Started to poke poke MAHB....
Buy corporate jets...
Talking big....
Started ordering many new fei kei....

Lol....
Washing machine?

Doesn't matter.........

Yeah I am a keyboard warrior....
My these comments are simply poison .....

Hahahahaha

LOL!

Really it doesn't matter?

Look at the core numbers la...

Cash 1.7 Billion ring
Total loans 10.9 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions. (It was reaching 13 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions until he was forced to embark on his sales and leaseback program)

304 fei kei means total capital commitment of 86 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions.

86 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions if AirAsia takes delivery of 304 fei kei.

Go imagine for a moment or two or maybe you need more ....
Can 1.7 Billion buy 86 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions worth of fei kei?

Is the funding possible?

How much will AirAsia debts ballooooon to?

How many Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions?


if that was remotely even possible...

now bring in the super computers to do the math and add in the 100 new fei kei.....

can a company sustain such an illogical and reckless setup?




and so why does it matter?

it matters to me...
cos one day....
AirAsia will be one company drowned in Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions of debts....
and when it does fail.....

what will happen?

gift-a-ton to bailout AirAsia?

will it matters to me then?





... and needless to say I am chill ....
(actually that's such a stupid remark from me... do I go berserk or do I jump myself happily silly when I am a keyboard warrior. LOL! ) .... but unfortunately I have been wide awake and aware of such an unsustainable business model of AirAsia for many years already...

yeah... Tony gifts me the chance to fly cheap....
but I won't idolize just cos of that....
and neither will I idolize him for this recent wonderful, incredible flying stock.

LOL!

what to do...

...and that's becoming of our culture....





... in the stock market when the stock is correct.....
one is ALWAYS correct...
so correct one can not be wrong !


Many years I pointed out Ah Booo high fees for doing nothing....
But market hot...
Stock hot...
How can Ah Booo be wrong....

Now?
Lol !!!!




Ps when the publuc money is used for bailout....
Hope you diam and don't complain...





Oh... chiiiiiillll dude.
I may be wrong.....
My figures all fei kei one..
Pluck from sky.....








Good to be a smartphone keyboard king !!!!!
Hell yea !!!!!!

Lol... yea...everything is subjective.
And if you trade the market long enough...
The market never always trade to its value or fundamentals....
That is why there is overvalue and undervalue ....
And oh....then there are the comatose.....

And that's why there is stock forum discussion.....

And the issue that is subjective at this moment....
Is not whether the stock is going up or going down...

The simple issue is the subject of airasia buying 100 new fei kei...
When it still has 300 plus fei kei ....
Yet to be delivered....

Yeah....so subjective.....why should we even be talking about it...
ESPECIALLY....
When the stock is clearly breaking out higher.....

LOL !











Of course most important is the stock fei higher or lower.

Oolala....new engine orders somemore...

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/a...ircraft-engines

So power Tony.
Lol



Ah Boon sure wrong....
See....

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/a...rs-good-airasia

Message to ownself...

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...1bil-in-2-days/




Sounding damn cocky once more....

It was just recently that AirAsia the stock was dying....

Never change. LOL!
Same old same old.

List price.

20% discount ah?
LOL!

Haiyaaaa.... make it 25% la.... why? Tony mouth geng ma!

So we are talking about 45.7 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions

Existing order of 304 fei kei.
In latest account, these order is worth 86 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions
Give or take a couple 86 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions to account for USD fluctuations laaa...
Note majority of debts is in USD.
Note last I remember a portion of the debts is hedged at USD3.50 to the ringgit.

So.....
drum roll phluzzzzzzzzzzeeeeeeeeeeeeeee......

the new order means...
AirAsia is committed to buy 131.75 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions worth of fei kei and engines!

* note if AirAsia has no marney, it has to do what it is so good at.... ie.... borrow! *

Note its balancing shiiit shows cash 1.7 Billion
Total loans 10.9 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions. (It was reaching 13 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions until he was forced to embark on his sales and leaseback program) (LOL! Copy and paste from recent own remarks)

Note....
Does this sound remotely possible...
Can a person who has cash asset of 1.7 86 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiion and currently owing 10.9 86 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions COMMIT itself to buy new assets worth 131.75 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions????


Where is the damn calculator????

LOL!

Yes, yes, yes.... the 131.75 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions is not one time one...
can split...
can postpone one....
but assuming a time span of .... not 20.... but 25 years....
AirAsia is committing itself to 5.27 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions worth of new asset EACH year....

do the math....
do the risk assessment of such ridiculously absurd corporate exercise........







note:
this posting does not suggest anything about the stock....
I am no fortune teller...
I can not tell you if the stock will fei or lam....
do contact your own saham bomoh....

note:
previous postings earlier have NOTED that its hedging profits and losses is a huge integral of the company...
sometimes much more than the fei kei's core profits.....
yeah... a company whose fortunes depends a lot on the company's gamble in the oil and forex company.




This post has been edited by Boon3: Jul 15 2016, 09:25 AM

So I write...
You say chillax....
Errr...
Now I write to myself....
You are troubled with me talking to meself?



And you ask me to write to BOD?

LOL !

Eat full ah?
Harlooooo.... I am not even a shareholder....
Write for what?



Lol !


Tell you what....
Why don't you show where and what I am writing to meself is wrong?
Why is my risk assessment wrong?


Be subjective maaah



Wait..... I chlillax dulu.....




This post has been edited by Boon3: Jul 15 2016, 11:32 AM

waaa..... 30% ah?



* wtf am I reading and posting *

lol .... delete...delete

This post has been edited by Boon3: Jul 18 2016, 04:20 PM

the thing is ....
if and when it does happen... (cannot run away one la .....)
my question is where is Tony then ???

and where all the folks who are nice nice carry bola and grant him to be the far related UNCLE Tony?