Understanding the business model helps. long post...................................... Many years ago.... Everyone knows that AA model is one that builds on leverage. Using other people money to build your dream. What a dream world. And that is what Tony did. He build up AirAsia from scratch with the massive help of borrowings. As everyone knows... You cannot borrow and borrow forever..... and that's when Tony got into trouble few years ago.... With debts reaching 8 billion (or so ... cannot remember precisely) ..... and with the influx of more planes... and with sales revenue not growing as fast as its debts..... something had to give..... Tony were forced to give the order to ask deferment of airplane delivery.... that slowed the borrowings down ( new planes equals many millions of new debt)... and it worked.... ..... and you can see clearly how AirAsia became a darling of many traders in late 2010.... (* its not whether you love or hate the industry but the need to understand what's happening *) Can you see how much the stock rise? Look chart...... and as you can see also in the chart.... AirAsia then started falling again in 2011.... After crawling out of the gates of hell of its debts problem... which was caused by the fact that AirAsia could not possibly take in so many new orders of airplanes..... AirAsia did the dumb dumb thing once more... Arrogance I think.... AirAsia in 2011 announced it ordered 200 new planes... worth over 50 billion ringgit.... so dumbfounding... cos the old airplanes order.... AirAsia was already having trouble digesting.... that order...iif I would recall.... forced AirAsia to carry a capital commitment to buy new airplanes to be worth around 70+ billion. Here was a company.... less than a billion cash... carrying close to 10 billion in loans... taking a new order, increasing the future airplanes purchase to over 70+ billion........ how to survive? And that's why the stock tumbled... and tumbled.... RECENTLY.... what changed? SALE and LEASEBACK! Yup.... survival tactics..... selling own plane and then leasing back. (makes one wonder...consider that AirAsia still has more than a hundred new planes to take delivery!) this is where I don't understand... cos I am not smart enough to be an accountant... There is lease income... and also lease expense... for example... lease income this Q is 322 million (see note 10) (see how big a booster it was to the sales revenue?) and then there's lease expense.... 111 million (income statement) .... err.... err ....... (* I wish AirAsia was more transparent and give more details in its leasing. There is major money involved here!) and then ..... borrowings went down a lot (thanks to the planes sold)..... and also ... this year.... in Feb.... AirAsia again were forced to eat humble pie... and asked Airbus to postpone delivery of 7 new airplanes. ( which begs again... why did Tony give that freaking order of 50 billion new airplanes back in 2011? Old order still got, order new one for what F***? ) and boom.... the balance sheet of AirAsia got a whole lot better..... can this sustain? in the short short term..... probably yes. .... until..... airbus starts asking Tony about when he will take delivery of the new airplanes!) and the stock chart.....

Message to ownself... http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...1bil-in-2-days/ Sounding damn cocky once more.... It was just recently that AirAsia the stock was dying.... Never change. LOL! Same old same old. List price. 20% discount ah? LOL! Haiyaaaa.... make it 25% la.... why? Tony mouth geng ma! So we are talking about 45.7 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions Existing order of 304 fei kei. In latest account, these order is worth 86 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions Give or take a couple 86 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions to account for USD fluctuations laaa... Note majority of debts is in USD. Note last I remember a portion of the debts is hedged at USD3.50 to the ringgit. So..... drum roll phluzzzzzzzzzzeeeeeeeeeeeeeee...... the new order means... AirAsia is committed to buy 131.75 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions worth of fei kei and engines! * note if AirAsia has no marney, it has to do what it is so good at.... ie.... borrow! * Note its balancing shiiit shows cash 1.7 Billion Total loans 10.9 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions. (It was reaching 13 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions until he was forced to embark on his sales and leaseback program) (LOL! Copy and paste from recent own remarks) Note.... Does this sound remotely possible... Can a person who has cash asset of 1.7 86 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiion and currently owing 10.9 86 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions COMMIT itself to buy new assets worth 131.75 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions???? Where is the damn calculator???? LOL! Yes, yes, yes.... the 131.75 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions is not one time one... can split... can postpone one.... but assuming a time span of .... not 20.... but 25 years.... AirAsia is committing itself to 5.27 Beeeeeeeeeee-liiiiions worth of new asset EACH year.... do the math.... do the risk assessment of such ridiculously absurd corporate exercise........ note: this posting does not suggest anything about the stock.... I am no fortune teller... I can not tell you if the stock will fei or lam.... do contact your own saham bomoh.... note: previous postings earlier have NOTED that its hedging profits and losses is a huge integral of the company... sometimes much more than the fei kei's core profits..... yeah... a company whose fortunes depends a lot on the company's gamble in the oil and forex company.

So I write... You say chillax.... Errr... Now I write to myself.... You are troubled with me talking to meself? And you ask me to write to BOD? LOL ! Eat full ah? Harlooooo.... I am not even a shareholder.... Write for what? Lol ! Tell you what.... Why don't you show where and what I am writing to meself is wrong? Why is my risk assessment wrong? Be subjective maaah Wait..... I chlillax dulu.....