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 Capital A Berhad /AirAsia (5099), Asia's largest LCC group

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Intimidated
post Mar 13 2020, 12:23 PM


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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 13 2020, 12:16 PM)
Flights cancelled. Dwindling passengers.

And then you have the many fundamental issues about the company.

Stocks worldwide has corrected substantially.

Simple question is why need to bet on this stock?
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Why do people go to the casino? biggrin.gif

You’re probably ignoring me already but to be fair, i appreciate that you do know what you’re talking about when it comes to the actual state of the company. Like, you did your homework. But sometimes people just get this feeling that they should do something, even if it flies against the conventional wisdom and it’s a really bad idea, like taking a cheap holiday in Shanghai now biggrin.gif either end up getting COVID-19 and die, or hey it’s a bloody cheap holiday!

At least in this casino called bursa I won’t lose my life if I’m wrong biggrin.gif but the upside apart from monetary gain? The joy of knowing my fart-based decision made me money lol

1.30 or higher by late-2021. I’ll bookmark this and set alarm for October 2021 biggrin.gif
Raymond_ACCA
post Mar 13 2020, 12:55 PM

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If anyone is still interested in investing in AirAsia, I'd highly suggest to compare to the performance of budget airlines around the world, especially take a look at their core performance indicators such as RPM/APM/Passenger capacity/Debts and balance sheet strength, including their fuel hedging strategy (or lack of it). Then compare their stock market performance to see which one has been beaten down way worse than AirAsia.

Those that have a stronger performance/financial position and shares that have declined way more is a better bet for upside.

Hint: Spirit Airlines.

Just my 2 cents. Study well before putting your hard earned money in any counters. Facts don't lie (unless of course there's accounting manipulation tongue.gif)
Intimidated
post Mar 13 2020, 01:00 PM


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QUOTE(Raymond_ACCA @ Mar 13 2020, 12:55 PM)
If anyone is still interested in investing in AirAsia, I'd highly suggest to compare to the performance of budget airlines around the world, especially take a look at their core performance indicators such as RPM/APM/Passenger capacity/Debts and balance sheet strength, including their fuel hedging strategy (or lack of it). Then compare their stock market performance to see which one has been beaten down way worse than AirAsia.

Those that have a stronger performance/financial position and shares that have declined way more is a better bet for upside.

Hint: Spirit Airlines.

Just my 2 cents. Study well before putting your hard earned money in any counters. Facts don't lie (unless of course there's accounting manipulation tongue.gif)
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Good tips!

I’ll take your word and put a small sum on spirit airlines biggrin.gif
moosset
post Mar 13 2020, 01:48 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 13 2020, 11:53 AM)
Exactly. Sometimes if one takes the stock out of the equation, they will then understand if the stock is worth bothering....

For me, I always ask the simple question...

How was Airasia able to pay big dividends not too long ago?

Well, they already decided they needed the sales and leaseback. Debts gearing was way too big already. Unsustainable. Esp when you have less than 1 billion cash and carry more than 12 billion bank borrowings. New planes are coming in regularly (that 19us billion plane order). Ticket sales are simply not growing fast enough. So sales and leaseback was needed.

They then created a wholly owned subsidiary to handle the leaseback, called AAC.

So AAC but the planes and leaseback to their parent company, Airasia.

So voila. Airasia became rich by selling own planes and leasing back own planes. How rich? Was it 1 billion?

And they then got some company to buy this leasing company. LMAO!!

So Airasia got millions and millions and millions to give back to shareholder.

They needed the money cause too much bank borrowings. Instead of trying to lower the debts and improve their balance sheet, they gave out millions and millions in dividends.

Wait. The curveball was the previous year(s), Airasia did a cash call but that cash call (private placement of shares) as offered to only Tony and his partner.

Thinking about it. It was genius. Share placement to its big boss. Subsequently big dividend was given out. I think it was genius. You say?
Yes, the brand Airasia is there. Cheap flights are good. Who doesn't love cheap flights? But since there exist so many other stocks why should I bother trading the stock that carries so much questionable issues?
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wah.... you're not a shareholder also research so much about the company?? thumbup.gif

Is this your day time job?
Boon3
post Mar 13 2020, 01:54 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Mar 13 2020, 01:48 PM)
wah.... you're not a shareholder also research so much about the company??  thumbup.gif

Is this your day time job?
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My opinion(S) on all Airasia issues can be found all over the forum. I had been consistently critical against the way the company had been run. It's a sham. A company built on credit cannot be sustained.

A house of paper airplane.
tangtang22
post Mar 13 2020, 02:06 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 13 2020, 01:54 PM)
My opinion(S) on all Airasia issues can be found all over the forum. I had been consistently critical against the way the company had been run. It's a sham. A company built on credit cannot be sustained.

A house of paper airplane.
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Not many ppl read the AR n even lesser understand that AA was an aircraft-leasing company few years back should u judge a company based on its sources of income.
Intimidated
post Mar 13 2020, 02:39 PM


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QUOTE(tangtang22 @ Mar 13 2020, 02:06 PM)
Not many ppl read the AR n even lesser understand that AA was an aircraft-leasing company few years back should u judge a company based on its sources of income.
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It’s a very simplistic but also easy way to gauge if a company/person has a future biggrin.gif

Just like personal finance, you can only save as much as you earn. You earn RM1, your maximum saving is RM1 if you don’t spend anything at all biggrin.gif if you can earn RM10,000, then only it’s worthwhile to look into cutting down commitments and keep what’s left biggrin.gif

So base on that really naive analogy, AA just need to survive the coming six months (which they plan to, according to the recent pay cuts and etc), see what they can about whatever leasing/hedging, and pray for revenue to come back again biggrin.gif
Boon3
post Mar 13 2020, 02:49 PM

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QUOTE(tangtang22 @ Mar 13 2020, 02:06 PM)
Not many ppl read the AR n even lesser understand that AA was an aircraft-leasing company few years back should u judge a company based on its sources of income.
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Well exactly. The facts are all there that the company financial engineering is not gonna last. Many questionable issues. The incredible intercompany transactions. The layers and the layers of it. The integrity issue of the boss. The hedging issues which highlighted the boss tendency to bet rather than to hedge.
Syie9^_^
post Mar 13 2020, 02:52 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 13 2020, 04:19 PM)
Well exactly. The facts are all there that the company financial engineering is not gonna last. Many questionable issues. The incredible intercompany transactions. The layers and the layers of it. The integrity issue of the boss.  The hedging issues which highlighted the boss tendency to bet rather than to hedge.
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the last thing one of the stock owner will ever found out it is flying cans of worm sweat.gif
Boon3
post Mar 13 2020, 02:58 PM

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QUOTE(Syie9^_^ @ Mar 13 2020, 02:52 PM)
the last thing one of the stock owner will ever found out it is flying cans of worm  sweat.gif
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Problem is once the issue of stock price is factored in most issues are usually ignored.....


Syie9^_^
post Mar 13 2020, 02:59 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 13 2020, 04:28 PM)
Problem is once the issue of stock price is factored in most issues are usually ignored.....
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bias about to explode? notworthy.gif
Intimidated
post Mar 13 2020, 03:02 PM


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Hahaha alright someone just reported my post biggrin.gif I’m sorry if I offended your sensibilities by taking an opposite position of yours

But hey if it turns out I’m right about this and I make money from this, quote me this post and I’ll buy you a drink. No hard feelings. Peace out folks
Raymond_ACCA
post Mar 14 2020, 09:04 PM

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QUOTE(Intimidated @ Mar 13 2020, 01:00 PM)
Good tips!

I’ll take your word and put a small sum on spirit airlines biggrin.gif
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I am in no way asking you to buy.. just asking you to compare. There are also alot of factors to think - i.e. will an airline declare bankruptcy to break plane purchase agreements etc. Also, who are the main customers of budget airlines - these group of people might be out of jobs etc etc. There's a whole macro picture to consider and not buying in just because the price is "low". Of course, if you have lots of bullets and would like to make an informed bet, so be it..
jiaen0509
post Mar 15 2020, 02:47 AM

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Airasia will drop to what price? Think to get some when bottom price. Any idea?
Salvador_Dali
post Mar 15 2020, 03:16 PM

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QUOTE(jiaen0509 @ Mar 15 2020, 02:47 AM)
Airasia will drop to what price? Think to get some when bottom price. Any idea?
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Drop to 0 like all pyramid scheme.
airtawarian
post Mar 15 2020, 08:36 PM

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QUOTE(jiaen0509 @ Mar 15 2020, 02:47 AM)
Airasia will drop to what price? Think to get some when bottom price. Any idea?
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drop until niama cannot recognize
AhBoy~~
post Mar 15 2020, 09:17 PM

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they need to go private... but o too much debt, boss himself won't want to take the company private
AVFAN
post Mar 16 2020, 03:09 PM

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FYI... MAS, airlines...

QUOTE
MAS tells staff carrier risks bankruptcy amid Covid-19 travel ban
https://www.themalaysianinsight.com/s/228941

Virus could bankrupt most airlines by end of May
https://www.thestar.com.my/news/regional/20...s-by-end-of-may


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 16 2020, 03:14 PM
!@#$%^
post Mar 16 2020, 03:15 PM

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gamble gamble
TSnexona88
post Mar 16 2020, 04:21 PM

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bankrupt by end of May??
huuhuhuh

then better don't enter at all whistling.gif
BUT what if there's U turn??? U shape recovery... another chance gone up i smoke laugh.gif laugh.gif

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