Prophet,.. tq for your good insights,... And you have great observation skills,.. I'll start observing rigs too from now,...

In another thread, I mentioned that the time is right to convert half of the targetted holdings into the SGD yesterday, and to convert another half today.

I converted half yesterday,.. but has decided not ot convert the other half today. Think I'll wait for the next few days to see if the Budget Revision will 'steroid' the MYR again. Furthermore, I have yet to use up all my funds in the SG mkt. Still waiting for more values.

In a low oil environment, the 1st sector to get their Capex and Opex haircut is the E & P. Thats upstream O n G activities. No one will invest in such low oil price environment if they can. Who would want to invest in exploration which is a high risk activity? Who would want to invest in production facilities when there is over supply of 1.5mil barrels per day???????

Whereas low oil prices are good for downstream activities because that means their raw material is cheap, therefore profitability will increase if all things remain equal like our pump prices.

i saw the price of drilling coming down from $135k p day to 85k p day for drill rigs!
those new rigs like what UMW O n G has is gonna suffer big time!

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Jan 26 2016, 12:14 PM

Further to the Sete saga

Maybank Kim Eng says" If we removed the revenue from Sete Brasil, earnings per share for 2016-17 will be reduced by 17%"

There is good writeup here

Pg 16

http://tefd.theedgemarkets.com/2016/TEP/20160126g1k7a0.pdf

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Jan 26 2016, 02:39 PM

Then we will be hoping that the other two business segments will be able to fill the voids left by O&M.

The CEO has also committed that they will always pay 40%-50% of their net earnings out as dividends.

Okay,... for unitholders of Parkway Life REIT, reporting this evening,... Parkway Life REIT is one of two healthcare REITs in Sgp.

Edited by updating : Till now,.. the reports are not uploaded to SGXNET,...they said after trading hours,...

This post has been edited by Hansel: Jan 26 2016, 07:05 PM

Temasek mulling sale of stakes in Keppel, Keppel Reit and M1

http://sdb.theedgemarkets.com/2016/SMR/SMR...60127x4b3ug.pdf

Tq prophet.... similar article as below :-

January 26, 2016:

Temasek Holdings Pte is discussing options for portfolio companies Keppel Corp. and Sembcorp Industries Ltd., ranging from divesting their non-core assets to selling shares, as the two Singaporean rig builders grapple with the oil-price slump, people with knowledge of the matter said.

Temasek is weighing the possibility of Keppel selling its 19.1 percent stake in wireless operator M1 Ltd. and paring its 44.6 percent interest in office landlord Keppel REIT, the people said, asking not to be identified as the information is private. Keppel’s holdings in the two firms are worth a combined S$1.6 billion ($1.1 billion) at current market prices, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Temasek executives also discussed the possibility of Keppel and Sembcorp Industries selling stock through rights offerings, the people said. The options, presented Monday during a regular Temasek meeting to review its portfolio companies, focused on how Temasek can preserve the value of its investments amid a downturn in the oil-rig sector and will be shared with the two companies’ boards, the people said.

Orders at Keppel and Sembcorp Marine Ltd., the world’s No. 1 and No. 2 maker of oil rigs, dropped in 2015 to their weakest level in six years as falling crude prices crimped demand for drilling equipment. The two companies also face cancellation risks from a major client in Brazil, which is embroiled in a corruption probe and hasn’t been able to pay the two Singapore companies since November 2014.

Any action would need to be decided and approved by the companies’ boards, according to the people. Temasek is the largest shareholder in the two conglomerates, with a 21 percent stake in Keppel and a 49.5 percent holding in Sembcorp Industries, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The Temasek team told executives at the state investment company that the rig-building industry outlook is likely to remain weak for the next three years, and Temasek may be called on to support any moves taken by Keppel or Sembcorp Industries, the people said. Brent crude, the benchmark for most of the world’s oil, has fallen 39 percent in the past year and last week hit the lowest level since 2003.

Temasek declined to comment in an e-mailed statement. Representatives for Keppel and Keppel REIT didn’t comment. A spokeswoman for Sembcorp Industries didn’t immediately respond to an e-mail and phone call seeking comment, while a representative for M1 declined to comment.

Comments :-

1) Keppel Capital is being mulled to incorporate the asset management divisions of Keppel DC REIT, Keppel Infra Trust and Alpha Investment Partners. Hence, chances are high that these 3 divisions will continue to stay under the umbrella of Keppel Corp.

2) Keppel REIT may be spun off,... and appears as a standalone REIT. No more clout under Keppel Corp and Temasek Holdings.

3) M1 may lose its clout under Temasek Holdings too.

4) I would prefer that Starhub is not included in this divestment exercise by Temasek Holdings.

If,..let's say,..someone in OPEC or in a strong non-OPEC oil-producing country says : supply cut,....... will this really :-

1) turn around China's economy ?

2) improve stock indices around the world, including the STI-ST ?

3) and locally in Kangkong Land : re-strengthen our MYR back to 4.00, or slightly below 4.00 vs the USD ?

Do all the above really hinge on the price of oil, and oil price only and no other factors ???????????

Parkway Life REIT uploaded their reports yesterday at 8.15pm.

1) DPU increased from 2.90 Cts per unit (Q4 2014) to 3.37 Cts per unit (Q4 2015). Minussing out a one-off gain in the DPU of 0.38 Cts per unit, the DPU for Q4 2015 = 2.99 Cts per unit, still an increase compared to 2.90 Cts per unit for Q4 2014.

2) DPU for Q4 2015 was 3.37 Cts per unit, but can't recall if there was any one-off gain for that quarter. Perhaps there is,... because of the reason for the one-off gain is from a divestment of some Japanese properties.

3) The CEO said : This marks the ninth consecutive year of growth since 2007, and once again demonstrates the success of the REIT’s resilient model.

4) Interest rate has been hedged for 93% of the loans,...this is good. If interest rates increases in the immediate future, this REIT will not be shaken suddenly,.. and will have time to adjust slowly to such increases.

5) The CEO is of the view, moving forward : The healthcare sector will remain resilient due to the strong demand for high quality healthcare driven by growing affluence and ageing population in the region.

6) Provided that this REIT is not 'shifted' to another country, say,... Msia, then there is a lot of future to stay with this REIT.

I will continue to hold this REIT !

Mostly NO is the answer.

The low oil price environment is a consequence of lower demand and higher supply.
Lower demand is a consequence of contracting economic activities, therefore China's slow down contributes to the lower oil demand.
Stock indices will only improve when economic activity starts to improve. While this activity is anemic and slow, we won't see stock markets improving that soon.
that's the reason why economy is a cyclic activity.

wow, I have quite a few counters same as you including this Plife.

Thank you, prophet,...great diagram you have there,...

Hopefully we are right !

I have started to look at Ascott Residence Trust. Trigger-point, this REIT has started giving out DPU based on her US properties. The Element, at Times Square West was acquired in August 2015.

Hansel, what u think of Accordia Golf Trust.
Price drop severely and the yield seem good.


http://www.sgx.com/wps/portal/sgxweb/home/...facts?code=ADQU

Good morning, Elea,... will look at it...

As we speak, the Interbank Rate now for the SGDMYR= 2.9583. Another 10 mins to the Budget Revision. The MYR continues to strengthen,...

We called Mid-Valley in KL - SGDMYR offered is 2.98, BUT NO STOCK.

Another place in KL offered at 2.99,.. even for mediocre of $20K only,... so should be able to get further discounts,...

Ready ammo,... ready contacts,... fill-up warchest today,....

A few quick glances at key metrics and opinion threads :-

1) Something new, something like Keppel DC REIT, targetted at the luxury market. Golf activities in Japan are expensive, many Jap executives would rather go overseas, and even after factoring-in the flight-ticket, hotel expenses, etc, they still find playing gold outside of Japan cheaper. Hence, green fees are not the only considerations here.

Furthermore, sometimes, the weather in Japan really does not permit tee-off activities,... but that's just what I heard from my Jap friends.

2) There is something like a lock-up period reported throughout the filings with SGX since July 2014. Could be lockup from selling. Didn't read further.

3) Lots of transactional reports about shareholders selling and buying throughout the two years since listing in July 2014.

4) The unit price has been on a downtrend since listing : https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=ADQU...DQU.SI;range=1d

5) Dividend looks very good, at 16.6% at last count, but there is no dividend history to evaluate on,... hence we do not know how stable the dividend can be. There is no nearest peer in Singapore that I can reference on. Have not checked overseas.

Low level dividend policy research : http://www.dividends.sg/view/ADQU

6) Not much opinions from my contacts and analysts,...

Perhaps the trust needs to do more advertising and promotional activities to advertise this trust out there. Can't comment with a BUY,..yet,...

SGDMYR is ready around 2.9590. Heard many positions are ready to load-up on the SGD. Soon,... no more stocks again ?? More work to follow-up on,....

Edited : *steady

This post has been edited by Hansel: Jan 28 2016, 12:06 PM