Whoa. What kind of theory?

I am a very new investor directly in stock market, just opened my IBKR brokerage account back in early April, hastily transferred funds from my HK bank account, converted to SGD and ventured into SG blue chips. Valuations were cheap back then. I have done my due diligence before this, aiming for undervalued counters. My efforts for OCBC and CMT has paid off apparently, judging from the current return, although the magnitude is kind of scary.

I have never hold any counters (didn't even have any brokerage account) before April. I was late to the party apparently, since the panic sell down was in March. But I did one thing right, averaged down my Manulife AP REIT fund substantially in March. Milestone: All constituents in my portfolio is green today for the first time since last year, Manulife AP REIT finally in positive territory since March!

Before April, I only had holdings in 2 mutual funds (bought from FSM), ASNB FP funds and EPF. And my holdings were like 45% equities, 45% fixed income and 10% cash. Today (After venturing into SG markets) my portfolio is like 60-65% equities, 30-35% fixed income and 10% cash. For equity holdings, about half in M'sia and about half in SG. The rest in developing and developed markets of Asia, Europe and the US.

So, is your theory proven?

This post has been edited by TOS: Jun 10 2020, 10:37 PM

All in green, but looking at the sell-off today, should fall back into red territory when the NAV price is released tomorrow.

Wait lah. Be patient. I have 40 years of compounding interests. It's not like I am retiring tomorrow. Need to do homework mah.

MCT has significant exposure to vivocity, portfolio concentration risk is there. But the Sentosa-Brani masterplan should do good to the area for the long run.

Will look into euro and USD area soon.

Same thought. As said earlier, higher yields mean higher risks. It makes no sense to buy if OCBC and DBS pays me the same 5-6% yield yet I am comfortable with it. At least OCBC is more popular (more liquid, talk about liquidity risk) and established compared to WPC.

Currently looking into JNJ and MSFT for long haul capital gains.

EDIT: Just check-up WPC, looks okay. Very long WALE, recently converted into REIT in 2012, BBB grade, long debt maturity. Good investment target, but need to consider after-tax yield and currency risk. May not be suitable for investors who seek more exposure in emerging markets.

This post has been edited by TOS: Jun 11 2020, 01:04 PM

For mutual funds, I opted for DCA last year, then began very simple market timing (buy when BOTH SG and HK REITs are in red) towards the end of last year. I stopped investing into my mutual funds around last year as I moved some of my money to EPF and ASNB FP fund. I then averaged down around March this year. So, basically I only average down this March for my mutual funds. The rest of time, let the market force determine the fate.

Ya, speaking of today. CMT goes from 18% all the way to 11%. Basically this week's gain is completely shed off. Looking on the other side, good that it retreated, otherwise the valuations would look completely distorted.

For the more observant, you would probably notice that KDC finished up green. The only REIT in green today! I have noticed that this counter is highly negatively correlated to the main market, at least in the past sessions. Claimed by many as over-valued, this counter's surge probably suggests that markets are pricing into a second-wave. Traders can consider looking into this.

Ramjade has been at full steam in north america and europe recently (or maybe for quite some time already). I certainly agree that there are good opportunities over there. But I personally need more research before jumping into a conclusion. Moreover, what suits him may not suit you. Sometimes, one man's meat is another man's poison. We all have different risk profile, different amount of dry powder. SG is close to us, and we are familiar with its market. So for long haul capital preservation, plus dividend support, SG surely is the best choice to go. That said, will surely venture into the West soon. He shared with me a list of "good" counters and I am looking into them.

EDIT: If you know understand Mandarin, https://www.sinchew.com.my/content/content_2287753.html is perhaps one evidence supporting my thoughts.

This post has been edited by TOS: Jun 11 2020, 08:28 PM

I see a lot of discounts today. Like an ongoing megasale.

Looking at Micro-mech today, my favourite one. Hmm...

SATS is doing surprisingly well. I thought it should be negative today but there's a sharp rebound from today's low. It even fared better than OCBC.

Thanks for the info. Is this a new rule or it has been implemented before April 2020?

Ramjade Need to check this.

This post has been edited by TOS: Jun 12 2020, 09:44 AM

Too late. Window closed earlier than I thought. But the discount is only like 6% from its recent high, still not enough to convince me to enter.

Nikko AM analyst suggest a 6% downside for S&P 500 in coming weeks. If it spillover to SG markets, maybe can consider pick up some quality ones.

UMS isn't as liquid as Micro Mech, and not really as good as MM. At least not as transparent as MM.

Which counter did you enter this morning?

To be more specific, it's land scarcity in CBD. Hard to find good Grade A offices these days. The most recent transaction is the changeover in ownership of AXA tower in Tanjong Pagar to Tencent. Most large office buildings are swallowed up by REITs.

And one should be mindful of:

1. SG can always expand its land by reclamation. 50 years ago, the shoreline was only along Clifford Pier, today, it's further south into SATS Marina South terminal. And it can go further. Once Tuas seaport is operational in 5 years time, Pasir Panjang shoreline would add to more supply. Oh, and Keppel harbour, just beside the CBD, more lands coming soon.

2. Most REITs, if not all, have exposure to properties beyond SG, and properties in other country may or may not subject to the same land scarcity issue as SG. Most important of all, if you expect SGD to appreciate against other currencies in the long run, the income remitted from overseas will be diluted in the long run.

Perhaps the above factors will counter the "land scarcity" plus point mentioned earlier. But one thing is certain, if talk about office REITs, CBD rents are quite stable, and somewhat predictable. For one thing, they are not subject to the same "political" risk like their HK peers.

As zenquix said, it's because of the spillover effect from the correction in US markets on Thursday night. Can expect some further correction of around 5-6%. Good time to collect the ones you miss back in March and April. I am hoping to get Micro mech at 1.65-1.67, which gives me an upside of 7-8% from its recent high, should there be a pullback.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/sin...as-global-funds

Bright side in mid-term.

Futures suggest around 1-1.5% drop in STI.

Damn it. Micro mech refuse to go down. Waited for whole day.

STI forward PE approximately 12.59, now trading at 0.5 SD below average.

This post has been edited by TOS: Jun 15 2020, 02:59 PM

I see. I am just referring to data from DBS Research. If there are multiple waves then yes the P/E would have to be revised downwards.

Well, Phase 2 to begin this Friday. https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/coro...cial-gatherings

And regarding multiple waves, it's too early to tell if there will be multiple waves in SG after reopening. SG is small and easier to control, I do not foresee any protests. And election is coming soon.

"Domestic" stocks should be fine. Export-oriented ones will likely take a greater hit from the 2nd wave.

So, the DBS chart can be quite still valid, maybe PE figures just revised down a little. The banking troika has diversified source of income and SG still accounts for about half of it, helping to insulate any potential downside risk.

Too bad tiger does not offer service for SG stocks. Any idea when they will offer service for SG stocks?

EDIT: I am wrong, there is a new service for SG stocks: https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/market/sem-sg

This post has been edited by TOS: Jun 17 2020, 10:01 AM

https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/market/sem-sg

Sorry, there is indeed a new service for SG equities. I was looking at the US version before this.

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/ri...ort-should-hold

Sideways trading more likely, per TheEdge SG.

Support rally for blue chips faded recently, unfortunately.

Election coming!

These days, you can't make a lot of money by selling newspapers and magazines. So, SPH ventures into data centers instead. I recalled it just ventured into nursing homes (think Parkway LIFE REIT) not long ago.

https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-annou...194df16792a8708

Looks like Temasek is off for something else?

This post has been edited by TOS: Jun 29 2020, 08:51 PM

Cross-posted in IBKR thread: https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/banking-fi...to-local-stocks

IBKR has arrived in Singapore.

This post has been edited by TOS: Jul 8 2020, 02:42 PM

2019/20 4Q SATS result to be announced anytime from now.

https://www.sats.com.sg/investors/financial-reports

Busy refreshing the SGX company announcement page.

https://www.sgx.com/securities/company-anno...e=1&pagesize=20

Oh, results released.

I just joined the live webcast.



EDIT: SGX Link for media/press statement, detailed results and presentation slides released: https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-annou...9fead477c63bad6

This post has been edited by TOS: Jul 9 2020, 06:12 PM

Mind sharing why?