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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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prophetjul
post Nov 12 2015, 01:48 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 12 2015, 12:09 PM)
They are not sochai. In fact they are very smart. In the sense that they know who matters the most to them

Contrary to most of us believe, "his" position is very secured. No one can touch him now. He actually sleeps very soundly at night. He has his grassroot firmly behind his back. Depending on the situation closer to GE14, he can choose to continue or pass the baton to his own people. He can "cross control" them just in case any one of them go against his will, one can replace the other. He already has this plan B. If he thinks the 2.6 issue fades away before 2018, then he will carry on with the desired plan A

Now all he needs to do is manage the "elders" and "foreign funds and credit agencies". Urban voters is the least of his worries. Tol will not affect them. Subsidies like petrol, rice, electricity etc can be reimburse through brim. Whereas GST increase will make the credit agencies happy

Looking at his position and what he can do, RM appreciation will be the by product
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I meant sochai like me! biggrin.gif

Yeah. There are many smart strategists in their team.

i sure hope your are right. About the ringgit. i am paying lots of AUD which is very strong presently
prophetjul
post Nov 12 2015, 01:50 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Nov 12 2015, 01:47 PM)
Some bankers define as govt linked institutions
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i MAY-help-you BANK. biggrin.gif
prophetjul
post Nov 13 2015, 08:13 AM

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QUOTE(Kaka23 @ Nov 13 2015, 07:52 AM)
I dont even to see.. this RM thingy really affecting me la..
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Why is RM thingy affecting you?

i am sending 2 children to Aus. That's how it's affecting me. sad.gif
prophetjul
post Nov 13 2015, 08:39 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 13 2015, 08:23 AM)
Aussie is not appreciating against RM too much as compared to USD or GBP.
It is those sending kids to US and UK that headache the most if not hedging or bought the currency prior before hand.
Tuition fee suddenly cost nearly 30% more.  sweat.gif

I knew because years ago, I bought Aussie at Rm2.9x and 3.0x level before.
Last time it went as high as 3.1x to 3.20 level.
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BUT BUT i was so used to the 2.70 levels! i bot in June? at 2.70.....now its slowly creeping up to 3.2

That's 18%. Not too littlewhen you are spending in excess of MYR300k a year!
prophetjul
post Nov 13 2015, 08:47 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 13 2015, 08:41 AM)
Look at the 10 year AUD/MYR chart. You are still below the highs between 2009-2013. RM strengthen only since 2013-2015. Aussie dollar is still relatively low compare to US$/SGD/RMB/GBP

Bersyukur  tongue.gif
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One must never be Syukur. Its called stagnating! tongue.gif
prophetjul
post Nov 13 2015, 08:48 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 13 2015, 08:47 AM)
Aussie fundamental actually is much weaker than RM.

Slow growth, low interest rate (potential being cut further), current account deficit, trade balance deficit.
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i know. That's why i can't understand why the Aussie is gaining vs MYR in the last 2 months rclxub.gif
prophetjul
post Nov 13 2015, 09:52 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 13 2015, 09:44 AM)
Actually both countries are affected by commodity prices. Both currencies closely move in roughly same direction. Maybe affected by data such as the recent job creation numbers or political deveopment

I would prefer AUD to RM over long term. But because of the tax laws, investments other than own stay residence in Australia is putting me off
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Over long term i would place my bet on SGD. The up trend has never been broken.
Whereas AUD has fluctuated a bit vs MYR.
prophetjul
post Nov 13 2015, 11:04 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 13 2015, 10:51 AM)
Yes, Sgd is one of most stable currency, but it gives almost no interest throughout.

I converted to SGD at about (about 2.50) on 2008 years ago, the interest rate was so low across, basically earn less than 2% over the 7 years period.

Today it becomes 3.05 + 2% = 3.11 worth

compared to 2.50 of RM that placed with average 3.x%  now compounded (total up about 23%) now roughly worth 3.08.

I merely gain much 0.03 by holding Sgd, over the 7 years period, unless one just converted last year at about 2.6~2.7 time, then different story.
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That's why i bought SReits. biggrin.gif

Currency stability plus yields! Whe i first invested into Sreits, SGD was 2.3 and the yeilds were just humongous! From 9 to 12 %!

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Nov 13 2015, 11:05 AM
prophetjul
post Nov 13 2015, 11:08 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 13 2015, 11:02 AM)
Wow,... so many are confident abt the republic (me included, I believed I was one of the first to signal out in this forum of the everlasting strength of the SGD throughout the years).  rclxms.gif

However, as in everything, will Sgp ever fall due to any reason,... and the SGD depreciates badly ?
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There are no guarantees to anything. However, SG has shown to have better governance than most countries.
Plus its the 53rd state of USA. biggrin.gif
prophetjul
post Nov 17 2015, 08:29 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 16 2015, 07:27 PM)
ya, mal funds are desperately needed to keep in at 4.40 thereabout!

mgs yield still rising, closed at high 4.35% today:
http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?tpl=govtsecuritiesyield

bnm...
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Guess EPF will buy more MGS soon.
prophetjul
post Nov 24 2015, 04:08 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Nov 24 2015, 03:41 PM)
wow after so long  blush.gif
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Huh?

1.00 SGD = 2.98410 MYR
prophetjul
post Nov 26 2015, 09:01 AM

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http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government...-at-close-to-2-

Singapore averts recession by the skin of their teeth

YET SG is rising against MYR? WHAT gives? rolleyes.gif
prophetjul
post Nov 26 2015, 09:41 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Nov 26 2015, 09:38 AM)
I beg to differ for the period of the whole last week. The SGD has been WEAKENING against the MYR. Now contemplating heavily to convert into the SGD........
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Think SG averted twice in the last 2 qtrs now. Should be 2.5 to the MYR ! biggrin.gif
prophetjul
post Nov 27 2015, 11:58 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 27 2015, 09:55 AM)
Even for the first hike, Fed seems like indecisive, so likely the second hike will be distance away, I don't see this Fed is a hawkish camp.
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They will hike as it is 'expected' of them. a token of 25 points perhaps.
prophetjul
post Nov 30 2015, 04:33 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 27 2015, 02:07 PM)
I was talking about the hike further down the road, aka "second hike".

I guess they will hike 0.25% in the coming meeting, but pause from there.
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They probably won't know whther it will be a hike or an ease further down. biggrin.gif
prophetjul
post Nov 30 2015, 04:34 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 30 2015, 03:24 PM)
i, for one certainly hope the Aussie gets turned upside down! biggrin.gif
prophetjul
post Dec 1 2015, 09:16 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 30 2015, 03:24 PM)
Can't understand the resilience of the AUD.........strong support at 0.72
prophetjul
post Dec 1 2015, 05:25 PM

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AUD/USD is blazing
prophetjul
post Dec 2 2015, 08:23 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 1 2015, 06:59 PM)
Could be because of this report after the RBA rate was held steady yesterday at 2.00%.

The following points were notable in the report :-

1) The economy can still expand in spite of lower investments in the mining sector.
2) Prospects for economic conditions have improved over recent years.

Media Release
Number 2015-23

Date 1 December 2015
Embargo For Immediate Release
Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0 per cent.

The global economy is expanding at a moderate pace, with some softening in conditions in the Asian region, continuing US growth and a recovery in Europe. Key commodity prices are much lower than a year ago, reflecting increased supply, including from Australia, as well as weaker demand. Australia's terms of trade are falling.

The Federal Reserve is expected to start increasing its policy rate over the period ahead, but some other major central banks are continuing to ease monetary policy. Volatility in financial markets has abated somewhat for the moment. While credit costs for some emerging market countries remain higher than a year ago, global financial conditions overall remain very accommodative.

In Australia, the available information suggests that moderate expansion in the economy continues in the face of a large decline in capital spending in the mining sector. While GDP growth has been somewhat below longer-term averages for some time, business surveys suggest a gradual improvement in conditions in non-mining sectors over the past year. This has been accompanied by stronger growth in employment and a steady rate of unemployment.

Inflation is low and should remain so, with the economy likely to have a degree of spare capacity for some time yet. Inflation is forecast to be consistent with the target over the next one to two years.

In such circumstances, monetary policy needs to be accommodative. Low interest rates are acting to support borrowing and spending. While the recent changes to some lending rates for housing will reduce this support slightly, overall conditions are still quite accommodative. Credit growth has increased a little over recent months, with credit provided by intermediaries to businesses picking up. Growth in lending to investors in the housing market has eased. Supervisory measures are helping to contain risks that may arise from the housing market.

The pace of growth in dwelling prices has moderated in Melbourne and Sydney over recent months and has remained mostly subdued in other cities. In other asset markets, prices for commercial property have been supported by lower long-term interest rates, while equity prices have moved in parallel with developments in global markets. The Australian dollar is adjusting to the significant declines in key commodity prices.

At today's meeting the Board again judged that the prospects for an improvement in economic conditions had firmed a little over recent months and that leaving the cash rate unchanged was appropriate. Members also observed that the outlook for inflation may afford scope for further easing of policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand. The Board will continue to assess the outlook, and hence whether the current stance of policy will most effectively foster sustainable growth and inflation consistent with the target.
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Yeah

It appears that Aus economy is performing better than expectation.
The rate for AUD/USD is now 0.733

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