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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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Hansel
post Nov 23 2015, 04:13 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Nov 23 2015, 03:54 PM)
wah really? why I didn't see in newspaper.

It's would be headline news  tongue.gif
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Chinese media,... or Facebook ? I heard this from a client of mine who is into CHINESE-MEDIA. Perhaps we should start digging around for this news,... then we can come to conclusions amongst ourselves here. It's a hard world today, information is 'king',... need to know news and rumour coming from all angles.
Hansel
post Nov 23 2015, 04:50 PM

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QUOTE(aeiou228 @ Nov 23 2015, 04:38 PM)
What it said is,... I think, in essence...Chinese Premier Mr Li said that Chinese-Msian trade must be given a chance to stabilize. In order to achieve this, China will contribute by buying Msian bonds.

So,.. there is some truth to what my old client said.
Hansel
post Nov 23 2015, 04:54 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 23 2015, 04:44 PM)
Thank you, Cherroy,... so we have it here. This could be the reason why the RM strengthen in the last few days.

I wonder how much will the RM reverse again after this news,.... I really don't think this news will move the RM all the way up with the impending Feds hike.

'News from all angles',....
Hansel
post Nov 23 2015, 05:01 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 23 2015, 04:58 PM)
can one interprete that as a big chance for msia to issue big new bonds, incr debt big time? tongue.gif
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Theoretically,.. yes, since there is a willing party ready to buy our issues. So, more debts,... but at the same time, more liquidity too.
Hansel
post Nov 23 2015, 05:05 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Nov 23 2015, 05:02 PM)
thanks guys  rclxms.gif

now MGS not only have "help" from locals funds, but also PRC  flex.gif
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Hah,... smile.gif never thank me, huh ?? I was the one who initiated this from the intelligence around us,...
Hansel
post Nov 23 2015, 05:13 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 23 2015, 05:08 PM)
ok, we wait and see if this indeed will affect the rm in the coming weeks and months.

now, 4.30 still.

very stable. biggrin.gif
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Right !

So,...now back to making the decision on what rate of the USDMYR and SGDMYR to go in at. This is the window here. If waited too long, the window might close before we managed to go in.

Hansel
post Nov 23 2015, 05:15 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Nov 23 2015, 05:12 PM)
so sorry  notworthy.gif 

big thanks to u who the 1st inform all of us about the news  flex.gif  notworthy.gif  notworthy.gif
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biggrin.gif Just kidding, man,...I'm a bit euphoric that I managed to see this news, and confirm on its possible effect on the mkt... so, there is another new avenue to catch critical news now - my old client.

Edited by adding : I was appalled too that we could not reason out why the MYR could stand, and defied 'natural gravity' for it to drop.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Nov 23 2015, 05:17 PM
Hansel
post Nov 23 2015, 08:17 PM

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Prb is in the last 3 days, the RM has strengthened against the USD and the SGD. I have not checked,... but has the peers also strengthened against the USD, or weakened ?
Hansel
post Nov 23 2015, 08:38 PM

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Now must decide if the MYR will continue to strengthen from here on, ignoring the Fed rate hike next month, OR this momentary strengthening of the MYR is just for these few days and after the euphoria of China buying MGS has died down, the MYR will continue to trend downwards in-line with the Fed rate hike ?
Hansel
post Nov 23 2015, 08:52 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 23 2015, 08:46 PM)
RM is always moving in tandem with other currencies, just the magnitude is higher than others.  sweat.gif
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If the other currencies weaken in the coming days,.. I'm not sure if the RM will weaken too, given that China has now committed to buying more of the MGS in the near future. China has not openly committed to another country to support their bond issues. Hence, will the RM hold-up ?
Hansel
post Nov 23 2015, 08:55 PM

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Sorry,... but I don't get the point,....
Hansel
post Nov 23 2015, 10:15 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 23 2015, 09:25 PM)
Ie. China buys government bonds of many other countries as well, not just malaysia. EG. It holds >$1 trilliion of USA government bond and is its largest creditor
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Tq Show,... Which Emerging Country then besides Msia ?
Hansel
post Nov 24 2015, 10:17 AM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Nov 24 2015, 08:15 AM)
So China is selling US treasuries when USD is high and buying emerging countries' govt bonds when their currencies at their lowest? That must be one of the reasons for the uptick of these currencies.
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I believed China said that Msia is now allowed to buy up to 50B Yuan of RMB Bonds, and will then 'reciprocate' by buying Msian bonds (MGS) ! However, the anount that they will buy is not stated.
Hansel
post Nov 24 2015, 11:07 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Nov 24 2015, 10:27 AM)
23 Nov 2015 02:20 UTC - 24 Nov 2015 02:24 UTC
USD/MYR close:4.25711 low:4.25711 high:4.31904

MYR have reacted positively on the gud news
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That's right ! This event is a mkt-moving event. As we speak, the MYR continues to strengthen against the SGD and the USD. Is Premier Li still in town, or has he left for Beijing ???
Hansel
post Nov 24 2015, 11:44 AM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Nov 23 2015, 11:23 PM)
1MDB's Edra Energy Disposes Of Assets To Chinese Firm For RM9.83 Billion
http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v8/bu/newsb....php?id=1192827

good news for MYR  hmm.gif
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Hi,... Looks like the Msian Gov't now allows the sale of our assets to foreign companies,... or the purchaser here has a more complicated structure than a mere China-based CGN ?
Hansel
post Nov 24 2015, 12:23 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Nov 24 2015, 12:01 PM)
Is there any more gud news in the pipeline?
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Hi,..well, I can't think of any yet. Even this Chinese bond-buying ann't was not anticipated earlier. It was because of the effect seen on the MYR strengthening that prompted me to go sniffing around on what could have caused this.

Sale of Edra Energy was also not anticipated, but the idea of this happening is pegged in the back of the mind. If sale of 1MDB assets can move the MYR (still unsure yet),... then I tend to think that when 1MDB gets rid of another asset, that would be a 'strengthening catalyst' for the MYR.

Which brings to mind the sale of the second 1MDB asset - the Sungei Besi land. I would say, to rig-up the SPA and for the other legal activities to be made ready,...the event will likely take place right around the time of or after the US rate hike day, namely Dec 18th...

Hansel
post Nov 24 2015, 12:27 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Nov 24 2015, 12:03 PM)
well local purchaser is only Tenaga. and they needed to justified the buy with shareholders.

CGN group don't needed those crap thingy because it's private entity.

plus what I heard CGN have bigger plans in future. they want to have some presence in Malaysia 1st. so in future when Malaysia wanna build Nuclear Power Plant, CGN would have the upper hand to get the project.

pandai tak PRC  rclxms.gif  flex.gif
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Hi,.. you are right on what you have said. I was trying to stress on the point that the Msian Gov't now allows foreign entities to purchase our assets, for it is a known fact that the GOv't always discourages this.

As I have said earlier, if TNB makes this acquisition, then it would be deemed as a 'left-pocket to right-pocket arrangement'. So, they sold to a Chinese entity instead.
Hansel
post Nov 24 2015, 12:39 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Nov 24 2015, 12:35 PM)
Aberdeen Asset Management Plc says it’s adding to holdings of Malaysia’s bonds and Currency as a selloff in Asia’s worst-performing emerging market was overdone.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/a...ff-was-overdone
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I suspect that this has some relationship to the ann't by Premier Li - 'Since China is buying, then can buy-lar...'
Hansel
post Nov 24 2015, 12:58 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Nov 24 2015, 12:53 PM)
I tot 1MDB prefer jv instead of outright sale of Bdr M'sia land
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My news is from the legal fraternity. Arul Kanda could still be thinking about this with his people. That Sg Besi land parcel is worth a fortune if done thourgh an outright sale to raise funds for debt servicing.
Hansel
post Nov 26 2015, 09:38 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Nov 26 2015, 09:01 AM)
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government...-at-close-to-2-

Singapore averts recession by the skin of their teeth

YET SG is rising against MYR?  WHAT gives?    rolleyes.gif
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I beg to differ for the period of the whole last week. The SGD has been WEAKENING against the MYR. Now contemplating heavily to convert into the SGD........

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