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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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icemanfx
post Sep 21 2015, 11:27 PM

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QUOTE(prody @ Sep 21 2015, 10:24 PM)
This is extremely unlikely. You can have a look at the last 10 years and see how often it is below 60 us$.
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Shale oil was not in the market until recently.
icemanfx
post Sep 22 2015, 12:09 PM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Sep 22 2015, 08:19 AM)
Showtime747,

1) You need to hope that I am wrong.  You need to hope that it is not too late..  I don't.  I am prepared.  Malaysia's economy can crash any time and it would not matter to me.  In summary, you need to know when.  I don't.

2) I wish you best of luck.

3) I am reaching a point in time that I no longer care to argue or debate about this.  I had written and posted too many posts on this.  If you are interested, you can read my posts and look at number and come up your own conclusion for the time frame.

4) You cannot buy confidence.  You have to believe it yourself.

Dreamer
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Showtime747 likes to ask other people to predict exact time but he never predict a precise time himself.
icemanfx
post Sep 22 2015, 12:36 PM

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QUOTE(towar @ Sep 22 2015, 10:27 AM)
as someone else already told u , USA develop new fracking tech which did not exist 10 years ago. with this tech, USA has ability to become largest producer of oil even more than saudi.
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U.s is still the largest oil producer in the world.

Idling shale oil production doesn't take long to reactive, oil price is unlikely to sustain over $60.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Sep 22 2015, 01:04 PM
icemanfx
post Sep 22 2015, 12:55 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 22 2015, 11:06 AM)
i thought the options were 20-80, 50-50 and 80-20.

now, u r talking 0-100 or 100-0! laugh.gif

personally, i rather lean towards 80-20 until things clearly are changing.
as we speak, 4.2835.
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When showtime747 is at tight corner, he likes to brand other either is 0-100 or 100-0.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Sep 22 2015, 01:02 PM
icemanfx
post Sep 22 2015, 01:37 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 22 2015, 12:15 PM)
Your children are grown-up and are located overseas. I am hoping for that day too, but I have not achieved it.

If I am in your position,... frankly, I wouldn't think too much about money and diversifying anymore. But I still have to do this because I stlll have responsibilities to fulfill. There is still a long way to go.

There are no lessons to be learnt at your side. You have made it. You are safe,... if need be, you can always fly, or escape to where your children are located. YOu don't have to set aside funds for your eventual escape, if really this country crashes.

rclxms.gif
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Those who are trapped without alternative could only hope, wish and dream for the better no matter how unrealistic they are e.g kV property flipper, goldbug.
icemanfx
post Sep 22 2015, 04:01 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 22 2015, 03:26 PM)
they can shut their eyes and ears but not for long.
those who keep saying "it's the usd strong, not rm weak" or "other currecnies also drop", try these charts.

if still don't get it, can't help.
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In the few years, mys GDP growth especially in property sector was partly fuelled by debts.
icemanfx
post Sep 22 2015, 05:07 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 22 2015, 04:36 PM)
that is well known.

not only props but car loans, credit cards and personal loans for furniture, weddings, tv's, ipads, holidays.

and you keep hearing, "what's wrong with incr debt as long as gdp grows". sweat.gif

so, here we are - the rm falls hard when the wind blows.
as we speak, 4.300.
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"Feed people with debt" is a doctrine to make people on the street feel prosperous. By the time these people realized will be like frog in boiling water.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Sep 22 2015, 05:08 PM
icemanfx
post Sep 22 2015, 09:47 PM

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QUOTE(anudora @ Sep 22 2015, 07:45 PM)
International Reserves of Bank Negara Malaysia as at 15 September 2015 The international reserves of Bank Negara Malaysia amounted to RM360.1 billion (equivalent to USD95.3 billion) as at 15 September 2015. The reserves position is sufficient to finance 7.3 months of retained imports and is 1.1 times the short-term external debt.
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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 22 2015, 09:07 PM)
Reserves increased by USD0.60 billion as compared to 28/8 position
Will MYR start to appreciate tmrw?
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About 90% of bnm foreign reserve is from short term external debt.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Sep 22 2015, 09:49 PM
icemanfx
post Sep 23 2015, 07:38 AM

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QUOTE(ikanbilis @ Sep 23 2015, 03:11 AM)
I see you like to use HKD as your example. Have you ever lived in HK to experience the cost of living in HK?

I worked in HK many years ago for a salary of HKD30,000/month. The accounting clerk in my company earns about HKD18,000/month. He can just barely survive with house rental, food, transportation expenses etc.

Please stop using HK as an example if you do not know about the real life in HK.
doh.gif
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Hkd30,000/month salary is current starting pay for engineering graduate in HK
icemanfx
post Sep 23 2015, 04:36 PM

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QUOTE(endau02 @ Sep 23 2015, 04:30 PM)
I was waiting for lelong until my neck long liao
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From NPL to foreclosure sale could take 12 to 24 months, hence, need to wait quite a while.

icemanfx
post Sep 24 2015, 01:44 AM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Sep 23 2015, 09:43 PM)
prophetjul,

1) Correction.  Every year, they have 2 supplementary budgets for previous year's budget.

2) Some people believe that Malaysia has unlimited Oil Money.  So, "Don't worry, be happy!!"

Dreamer
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Gomen budget is basically window dressing exercise.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Sep 24 2015, 05:37 AM
icemanfx
post Sep 24 2015, 12:34 PM

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Those ib and rating agency depending on GLC for business are almost always issue positive outlook to the public.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Sep 24 2015, 12:39 PM
icemanfx
post Sep 24 2015, 12:37 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 24 2015, 11:02 AM)
Of course. There is no prediction which is static. In fact, things could change in the next hour. Like a terrorist nukes New York. US$ will tumble. RM back to 3.30. Gold will soar

What I am saying is without a time frame, no prediction is meaningful. That is what I am saying to the pessimist and negative people here who avoided to make a meaningful prediction. They are just afraid to be wrong. While the professionals like IBs with much higher reputation is not afraid to do that in the open

I guess this is all about personal ego as big as a watermelon  tongue.gif
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Then what is your prediction of RM by year end?
icemanfx
post Sep 24 2015, 07:55 PM

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QUOTE(yolldddd @ Sep 24 2015, 07:48 PM)
Imho worse come to worst most probally will be peg at 4.5 is it does comes to that.
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Gomen will get more bang per petronas $ from depreciating myr, why need to peg?


icemanfx
post Sep 24 2015, 09:09 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 24 2015, 08:28 PM)
how low will the rm go?

how will it affect the rest of the economy?

why doing nothing will be a bad idea?

a clue may lie here - study brazil closely.

msia's situation is not all that different from brazil, imo.

good read:
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The currencies of South Africa, Turkey and Malaysia -- countries identified by markets as deserving a credit-rating downgrade -- declined.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...hai-baht-slides


Brazil GDP and natural resources is much larger than us. If Brazil gomen bond could be rated junk, there is nothing to stop our gomen bond to be similarly rated junk.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Sep 24 2015, 10:10 PM
icemanfx
post Sep 24 2015, 10:11 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 24 2015, 10:10 PM)
There were people saying this for 2012 doomday approaching time, dooms day already why save money, spent all on whatever you like.
Now, may be struggling to repay all the money spent... tongue.gif

Every crisis always got silverlining and opportunity, but if without money/capital then one won't able to capitalise it.

Situation is challenging, but not the end of the world.
If RM is depreciating then the money can be used to invest into something that has inverse relation with RM depreciation.
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SGD

icemanfx
post Sep 24 2015, 10:21 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 24 2015, 10:17 PM)
There are a lot more actually, even with local RM denominated investment.

Eg.
Global UT that invested in overseas asset primary in USD.
Local company that has asset overseas in foreign denominated currency particularly in USD one.

Having said that, USD won't forever appreciate one, there may be a point of shift or changing, as world economy and financial market is not one way street forever.

So a better diversification asset is always preferred to mitigate those risk.
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So basically anything else is better than myr.

icemanfx
post Sep 25 2015, 10:19 AM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 25 2015, 07:03 AM)
At the rate MYR is going, I think the govt should implement Capital Control. Currently many biz are affected, esp those who buy in USD and pay in credit, currency exchange loss would have kill the biz if it continues. The 1998 capital control turned out well, didn't it?
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These businesses could hedge US$.

icemanfx
post Sep 25 2015, 11:30 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Sep 25 2015, 10:38 AM)
Ringgit prospects worsening, may hit US$4.50
http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/313416

It seems M'sia have a gud branding in international arena
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4.50 is a foregone conclusion.
icemanfx
post Sep 25 2015, 12:28 PM

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QUOTE(anudora @ Sep 25 2015, 12:16 PM)
Revising the target only after it hit 4.44 which is already inside their target range. Mind blowing forecaster!  sweat.gif
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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Sep 25 2015, 12:20 PM)
they're playing safe  tongue.gif  laugh.gif
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QUOTE(anudora @ Sep 25 2015, 12:26 PM)
They were the one that forecast USDMYR will not reach 4.00 this year just a few months ago.
Now on its way to making a second joke of the year. This time they are turning to being reporter rather than forecaster.
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Midf is a GLC, you expect GLC to forecast negatively?

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