My investment strategy is obviously different from yours, almost always a step ahead of you e.g kv property and divesting MYR assets.

If those have investable assets is not in MYR e.g in USD, EUR, GBP, RMB, SGD, JPY, etc, need not do anything for the moment but to look for cherry to pick.

It is pretty obvious, your overall portfolio has depreciated with MYR.

More like you are having a single track mind, couldn't accept any alternative or someone is a step ahead of you.

Are you going to buy more USD or myr on Monday?

Employment data is an indicator market look at.

I still believe USD on up trend, are you going to sell USD for myr tomorrow?

US fundamentals is strong, current trend could persist for a few more years until commodities price clip up. As for bubble in the US, have yet to identify.

As for MYR, expect recession to kick in next year or so especially this October budget is unconvincing. What the country need is not more spending by gomen but tax cut. It is a proven that there is too much leakage in gomen budget, the economy will be more beneficial if spending is by joe the public.

At depreciated MYR, for the same US$ volume both export and import should increased. Shrinking import mean domestic consumption has dropped fairly significantly and implying poor market sentiment. 3Q/15 domestic consumption numbers could be rattling.

It seems your vested interest is in stronger myr. Guess you business buy more in US$ than receiving us$,.

Myr is one of many em currencies flowing with the tide. Occasional change of direction is not unexpected and is opportunity for trader.

After mys graduated from us preferential tax years ago, volume of FDI lost to neighboring countries. Mys signing tppa is a foregone conclusion.

Mys gomen has the habit to exercise options to delay opening up local market, tppa unlikely to have immediate impact on myr Forex rate except for speculation.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Oct 12 2015, 08:11 AM

A rebound in Malaysia’s ringgit will prove short-lived as the factors that made it Asia’s worst performer this year show few signs of going away, according to an investment arm of France’s largest bank.

“We’re in a situation where nothing’s changed, so therefore the only conclusion we have is that Malaysia remains a market to be short,” said Mark Capstick, a London-based fund manager at BNP Paribas Investment Partners, which oversees 532 billion euros ($605 billion). “We’re short right across the board,” he said, adding that assets being bet against include the ringgit as well as the nation’s local-currency and global bonds.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...-ringgit-surges

Negative measures e.g. toll hike is off budget, next week budget is left with only positive and rosy news. More $ gives away to those under privileges.

Classic herd behaviour, see the tree and miss the forest.

USD will strengthen further.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Oct 17 2015, 07:41 PM

Forex is like commodities, short term movement could be deviated from long term trend. People looking at tree/short term price movement may miss the forest/long term trend. Long term economic equilibrium always prevail. MYR forex is expected to worsen before stabilizing.

Most average joe don't have alternative or ability to foresee but to accept what is coming when it comes. The impact will be similar to when MYR/USD changed from 2.5 to 3.8.

Official inflation rate will be below 4%.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Oct 18 2015, 04:40 PM

Indon corporare bonds default in sg will add weight to myr downfall.

Fear of contagious like typhoid outbreak.

Given little price wars among ME oil producers, oil price is unlikely to sustain above $50/barrel and oil price is more likely to trend downward. If USD/MYR rate is correlated to oil price, there could only one direction for the next few months.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Oct 21 2015, 12:00 AM

If not because of myr depreciation, monetary easing would be on the card.

Mys gomen asked Chinese to buy mgs; could mean falling demand by foreign bond buyers, gomen to issue more mgs or both.