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 Forex Trading Corner, Let's discuss forex strategy

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billytong
post Sep 26 2007, 07:58 AM

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there u go 4141 swaped with a 4153.
billytong
post Sep 27 2007, 09:41 AM

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QUOTE(rpg @ Sep 27 2007, 02:31 AM)
95% people will lose money in FOREX and stock market.
better dun trade urself.. invest in something else mutual fund better.
*

ohh thats Strange, last month 95% of my entry position is profit, only 5% is loss. And my loss money is about 0.004% of my income money and this is only count on 1 acc, wheres secondary acc is also roughly ~85% win.

This post has been edited by billytong: Sep 27 2007, 09:52 AM
billytong
post Sep 27 2007, 07:50 PM

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QUOTE(kevler @ Sep 27 2007, 04:26 PM)
huhu are u talking about money management ?
*

partially yes. Money management is one of important factor that the 5% of the traders win right? Just trying to prove him that it is possible to win


QUOTE(hafifee @ Sep 27 2007, 05:25 PM)
so, you have the choice to join us(5% elite trader) or the 95% fail forex trader...or just invest and dunno what happend to ur money..you only get 10%-20% year

if u trade ur self..the potential return is unlimited la bro smile.gif
*

Agree, conservatively 25-50% a month is pretty easy.

billytong
post Sep 27 2007, 10:32 PM

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Believe me jong, 2 pips a day is as easy as biting ur fingers.

but 1USD per pip on $100 acc is a complete no brainer. Only do $1 per pip when u are on 1000 or 2000 accs.

a position size should be .5%~2% of ur acc size.


Just as what I have said. the euro is over bought, I bet many news trader get burned with that bad US news came out tonight. It drive euro down with big -ve US news.
billytong
post Sep 28 2007, 08:02 PM

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QUOTE(rayzs @ Sep 28 2007, 04:49 PM)
yup if u wanna be a really successful forex trader, do some analysis. dont rely on EA. anyway usdchf is goin downtrend under mid bollinger bands. some might saying it gonna start bullish after hitting 0.9995
*

If 0.9995 on Chf is gonna be nuts I'll put my whole acc for longing if that happen this month.LOL tongue.gif

I'm pretty sure you are saying USDCAD, right? I have not traded USDCAD b4, but according to many says breaking parity is something big, any thing below that level is a good deal to long, just wait the fall end then long from bottom. Trade at ur own risk.



billytong
post Sep 29 2007, 09:43 AM

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QUOTE(teleboss2u @ Sep 29 2007, 07:27 AM)
hi billytong...hope your account still survived..alot of red pips there...hehehe...euro shoot up again...
*

Hello fren, I have been scalping Euro short every time it a fresh all time high. My acc is bigger than u can imaging.

billytong
post Oct 2 2007, 07:23 AM

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QUOTE(MNet @ Oct 1 2007, 08:31 PM)
MV spread high + many rumor out about it
try fxtrade
u sure wont regret one
*

To be more specific, he is referring to Oanda fxtrade unless otherwise

billytong
post Oct 10 2007, 09:55 AM

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QUOTE(hunt17 @ Oct 10 2007, 04:07 AM)
it would help u but not entirely. same situation if u jump to demo account without knowing/learn how to interpret the chart or use the indicator.

imo, it's best if u can practice on demo and at the same time practice what u learned to get better result in forex

demo account and real account are not the same thing in term of emotion/feeling. i learned it in d hard way :-(
*

It is all about strategy that u are using. And also money management + Patient.

How long u can hold for a -ve position? can u withstand a -300-500 pips drawdown?


I learned that a hard way also, thats many months ago I lost about 600 Euros(about RM3K that time) for not being patient enough.(The market have me drawdown and go back up). The loss may be just a portion of my acc. But that is still money.

thank fully I found my game plan, I had make a many times more than what I loss.

Good call there Luqmanz, , this bearish reversal is what I said b4. The fiber have to do corrections b4 it move up to 1.45.

This post has been edited by billytong: Oct 10 2007, 09:59 AM
billytong
post Oct 11 2007, 04:41 PM

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QUOTE(luqmanz @ Oct 11 2007, 12:18 PM)
How's everyone making money ?

Did anyone entered long Fiber around 4020-ish? It's now 4150-ish.
Good profit.
*

Aku play shorts, every it top up I short banking some pips tongue.gif

it is gonna hit higher soon, may be 4260s.


Trying to get 50-150 pips at the risk of 200-400 pips is a bit risky up here.
billytong
post Oct 12 2007, 07:47 PM

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QUOTE(luqmanz @ Oct 12 2007, 10:18 AM)
Yup ... I'm going to go short around 4250 as well .... just waiting for the price action to give me the green light hehehe ...
If the bear materialize, its going to crash like crazy. I'm talking about 100-200 pips in a day. Dropping fast down to 3800-3900 zones.

Let's make money!!!!!!  thumbup.gif  thumbup.gif  rclxm9.gif  rclxm9.gif  wub.gif  wub.gif
*

Yes, mate! brows.gif biggrin.gif Let the money flow into our pocket, I am tired of scalping picking the top almost a month. I want a swing to 200-400 pips down. Now we have to see how the retail play out, the retail should be USD positive. But it is still up to the market decide what it want to do. Not adding short b4 the news.

4175 As I type.

billytong
post Oct 12 2007, 09:39 PM

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QUOTE(normeck @ Oct 12 2007, 09:24 PM)
what about leverage 1:400?margin?
i still dont understand this...

my friend said "this was the thing that u can play "kuda 20 sen" or "kuda seringgit"....

so, with usd250 what leverage is acceptable? 1:400 or 1:50?
*

With that amount of money I suggest u open or use only 5% of what u have.

Opening 1 position that cost 5% of ur acc is still very risky. the most I go is 2% per position and only use max up to 15% of my total acc. But typically I stay within 10%.

The biggest Floating loss(usually people call drawdown) I had is -RM9K. But yet I still can sleep like a piggy.

Never go leverage more than 1:200.

billytong
post Oct 17 2007, 08:59 AM

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QUOTE(daytonatkf @ Oct 16 2007, 10:39 PM)
just as a planning, let say if this guy full time forex trader, so most of his income come from forex, is it mean that every year he no need to pay income tax? if he going to buy some aset (house, etc) will anything happen to this guy, sorry to ask this kind of question, cause i new to those income tax issue. Have u attend the EW seminar? Is it really work?
*

Full time trader here, actually getting a monthly salary is quite easy.

1. Save ur self a about 2K USD = about RM7.6K, but I recommend go for euro, because USD is going to go down further in future, this 1-2 months will go up a bit due to the recent a roll of USD positive news + big players looking to take profit for that longs

2. With 2K USD(or Euro), open an Account with 1:200 leverage in Fxcm or oanda (1:50 leverage) or other brokers. Skip interbankFx and forex.com, I heard they sux.

in Fxcm use 5% of your acc size, use 100USD/euro, get 25 pips everyday

100USD/Euro will give u = 2USD per pip

25pips x 2 = 50 USD = ~RM165 daily (@ current exchange rate) = RM3300 a month.
(enough for average people but not going to get u rich)

To get 25 pips a day is very easy, play 5-10times, each time grab 2.5-5pips profit. Sometimes within a big wave u can get 25pips in 1shot.

but b4 doing all these, u have to play demo first and get urself familair. Get the right strategy that works for u.

billytong
post Oct 18 2007, 12:33 AM

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QUOTE(normeck @ Oct 17 2007, 06:48 PM)
im replying billytong posting...he suggest to invest about RM7.6k...well ....from that amount, he can get RM3300 per month...
that's what i'm thinking of just 25 pips a day...from my virtual platform...i can get 25pips ~ 50 pips per day...but just like someone said, pro trader also lose money..

*

I am just giving u some easy target, if u are good in this market, there is no reason for u to work for someone else. We gonna start spoiling the workforce in Malaysia. brows.gif Everyone can be good in any field, just u need to practice practice practice, and NEVER GIVE UP.

the example I gave may be a big amount to some of u guys. but Take a look at the monthly target u have to meet. If u play 5 pips a day, it is pretty easy to consistantly get 5 pips everyday. That target I gave is VERY CONSERVATIVE. I am not suggesting u to open 2K acc, but with a conservative target & that amount, u can paid salary above average workers out there. Just an example only. u cant expect to make 1K USD(RM3300) out from 250, thats pretty risky. A big acc with a very conservative target can easily give u a good monthly salary.


Take what luqmaz said as example, if u can grow ur acc 10% a month from a 5K acc CONSISTANLY. This 5K acc will be >10Mil Acc in 7yrs, and we are talking 10mil USD here. Sounds too good to be true? Well it is. It is not easy to start a business out there and get 10mil USD in 7yrs, and starting a business is generally >5K USD = RM16.5K (@ current exchange as I type) not to mention the additional expenses u need to pay to keep ur business running.

It is about slow and steady.Let the time prove your result.

your broker will probably start cutting ur leverage once your acc size break 6 figures. The only broker I know off(so far) dont cut ur leverage is dbfx.com (Its bank itself so they got enough capital to take a position for u.) whistling.gif

How about Fixed Deposit VS Ultra Conservative Forex Trading?
Typically FD rate is 3.1% per yr (correct me if I am wrong), thats translate just .26% per month. This can be archive by ~4pips per month. if u cant consistantly get more than 4pips per month, u might as well dont trade it all. So that means putting money in bank is useless already. tongue.gif



billytong
post Oct 18 2007, 04:36 PM

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QUOTE(MNet @ Oct 18 2007, 04:00 PM)
highly recommended
fxtrade.com
due to
1.can earn dividen from your unuse balance funds
2.lowest spread among retail broker get 0.9 pips for E/U even u only trade $1
*

If u are using oanda dont use stop loss,because oanda sometimes stop hunt u guys. I prefer to use mental stops This morning we have a sharp 40pips spike down @ 1135am EurUsd for no reason. (view candle stick)

billytong
post Oct 21 2007, 09:14 AM

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I am running 2 accounts a FXCM tradestation and Fxtrade(with 4 chart windows open), together with firefox, msn & etc. on just Athlon Xp2400+ with 512MB RAM

Unless u are running pentium 3 or below, it is hard to see any lagging at all.
billytong
post Oct 24 2007, 10:18 AM

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QUOTE(a6meister @ Oct 24 2007, 12:49 AM)
it is not nice to say that i hunger for the 5 usd. i personally felt that u should use the phrase properly.

since u said not reliable for experienced trader, mind to point out the reasons ?

this is not a flamming or arguing discussion, just wish some experienced traders will share their experiences. Thanks
*

A good broker is the one that dont stop hunt u, do not get slippage. If u buy euro/usd @ 1.4250 they will give u 4250. They are some broker out there they slip u into 4255 which means u buy at 5 pips more expensive. Or in other case u can close euro @ 4300 exactly the price u want. Some broker allow u to open a trade but disallow u close the trade during news time. U might end up not closing at all, or close @ 5-20 pips away (say 4280? instead of 4300) from your target, stop loss will get triggered when the market has not touch there, limit order is not filled when market touch there got 1-3 seconds. Take Profit is not taken, etc.

So far oanda open/close your trades at exactly where u want. Fxcm do miss by 0.x pip sometimes but thats not much.

Oanda is good but during a big news their spread is crazy. Fxcm is good for news trading their spread dont go >5 pips during news time. U can say u dont trade the news, but what happen the news come out unexpected? U might want to close as fast as u can b4 the market went against u further.

Other than this, reputation broker is regulated with high capital requirements I personally feel much safer with my money in their hands. Especially the bank itself. dbfx.com

This post has been edited by billytong: Oct 24 2007, 10:31 AM
billytong
post Oct 27 2007, 10:22 AM

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Eur/Usd outlook -

The market are price in ahead of another .25% Fed Rate cut. Which will send dollar to funeral. (May be Ringgit to RM3.30)

what if a .50% cut? Well u may see euro 1.45 very soon.

With the euro going all time high, I WOULD not recommend to Long euro up here. Chances are the euro might have a 50-200 pips drop b4 heading to mid 1.44 or 1.45. Why risk 50-200 pips just to gain 25-50pips?

I am going to short @ all time high with a Stoploss of 10-20pips depend on market momentum. I personally feel risking 10-20 pips for a gain of 50-200pips down there is very a good deal. I would not have 50-100pips Stoploss. If market move up another 50-100pips, the chances are u might not able to close @ Breakeven at all. or just barely Breakeven. So why jump in the market when u cant get profitable?

What if the FED surprisingly leave the interest rates unchanged @ 4.75%? Well if that is true,

Dow Jones will go crash, Then Yen pairs will go down especially UsdJpy, and possibly Aussy,NZD, Gold, Crude price go down. Follow on with the Asian Stocks going down the next day. Eur/usd will likely to revisit 1.4100 or 1.4000 for a short term basics. (If FED hold the interest rates)


Above everything I said, I could be wrong!
so please trade safely dont over leverage your accs.

This post has been edited by billytong: Oct 27 2007, 08:32 PM
billytong
post Oct 27 2007, 08:22 PM

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QUOTE(amenlo9 @ Oct 27 2007, 07:35 PM)
very nice analisys.alot of people also expected USD will be strong again.let wait and see. smile.gif
*

The term I said "Dollar funeral" means USD is going to be weak/doom. But I am not buying euro because it is all time high. If you buying for USD strength, play short term & play very tight. I think I need to reedit my previous post to give a clearer picture.

This post has been edited by billytong: Oct 27 2007, 08:31 PM
billytong
post Oct 30 2007, 12:11 PM

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As u can see the euro drop a good 50 pips from all time high I said long ago.

personally I will not see a major correction ahead of Fed rate cut. A rate cut to 4.50% would create another new euro all time high.

However Fed might surprise us by holding rates @ 4.75%. That move will send the eur/usd down 100-300pips from 4400 and Dow jones might crash following the other stock from Asian, yen pairs, gold, oil etc as mentioned b4.
billytong
post Oct 31 2007, 12:16 PM

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QUOTE(David83 @ Oct 31 2007, 08:19 AM)
The ringgit shot to an all-time high of 3.3385 yesterday on speculation of a further cut in US interest rates.
*

Apparently the star writer have no idea about ringgit history.


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