I've gotten fed-up of waiting and expecting, hence I've put in steps to 'cover' all the periods of when they might hike. The only thing I need to do is to stay alert and when they actually hike, I have to observe if my view is in-line with what that actually happens during the 'knee-jerk window of opportunity', and how lomg will this window last ?

Then I need to time my actions to capitalise on the oportunity to load-up on the stocks that I need to load-up on (which I have identified earlier),... again,... assuming that my view is correct upon the hike.

That would be my strategy this time.

for that, 5% gain is definitely knee jerk.

get ready to short.

a hike, however small signifies yellen means what she says - data driven decisions. and the perception of a greater probability of more small increases coming.

bullets ready yes, but the window may be very long...

The Federal Reserve's aggressiveness in raising rates is often, though not always, a determinant in how the economy and financial assets respond. That's why officials at the U.S. central bank have stressed so vigorously that investors should not be focused on when it starts raising rates but rather the trajectory of how long it will take to normalize.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 17 2015, 12:05 AM

[quote=AVFAN,Sep 17 2015, 12:04 AM]
for that, 5% gain is definitely knee jerk.

get ready to short.

just short, simply because oil is 'expensive' while this is 'cheap'.

Well,... tq fro your inputs,.. but I beg to differ, even from the Feds' recommendation. I believe the following scenarios will take place instead :-

When the int rate is hiked fro the first time, that's a very impt signal that the chain of hiking has started. Historically, when the Feds start to hike int rates, they will move the rates up quite aggressively. It then becomes a norm already after that when the rates start to rise gradually, and during this period, the so-called opportunity of 'having stocks on bargain' in the bourse will not be as available as the point of time when the rate was first raised.

However, in case YOU ARE RIGHT instead, then I will have time on my side since the window of opportunity to buy will be longer, which is acceptable to me too.

Whether I am right are you are right, we will never know until we observe the events AFTER the first hike. The only snag is : if you are right, then the 'bargain period will be longer' and the stock price may fall further as time goes by. I would then have the challenge of timing the mkt accurately so that I can grab my targeted stocks at the cheapest possible price.

ya, i dun see it going much more above 47 this session.

no rate hike tmrw may give it a further boost, though.

Yeah...It will be very gradually if there is rate hike but won’t happen until central bankers are certain the first increase is having its desired impact and the US
economy can stand on its own without stimulus.

it will be very fluid, no way to assess futher even if a hike comes tmrw.

there is a big wild card out there - china. things there aren't stable at all. banks may be coming under pressure, rmb may be devalued further, etc. this one, i am very mindful.

Hah,.. if we are going to drag China into the equation, then I will tell with 100% certainty that there will be no rate hike tomorrow. But, honestly, how much weightage will the Feds give to Chine in deciding whether to hike or not ? Perhaps this could be a very new variable that must be included into this equation already, the US never had China as a variable in all her rate hike polices previously. As I always say, times are different today.

With China in the equation now, and with a high weightage given to China to decide on the first rate hike and the subsequent hikes till normalization, then the stretch between the first hike till the last one may be stretched over many months, or years, perhaps ? I don't know yet, but I feel that we will be able to tell better after the first hike,.. by listening to the tone of the Feds Governors,....

haha, that fello is dipping slowly?

i don't think fed takes china too much into consideration for the first hike but will for the later ones.

they will need to see how china and the rest of the world and oil reacts to it.

my take is there will be a small hike tmrw but with a message "it will take a lot more to do the next one".

really, i put my money on it - sold all my us equities, just shorted some crude.

so, pls put the money where the mouth is!

maybe change of hearts - pricing in a higher chance of rate hike tmrw.

if can close 1/2 the gap up would be nice....

latest ....

china, last week 4 execs at the largest broker firm were caught n admitted for insider selling n shorting. today 2 more were under investigation.

that will be if dow close softer.

exactly.

thing is, there is no SURE DIRECTION for a hike or for a no-hike. No expert can predict the market movement after the announcement. And many times, in history, the market moved opposite direction from most experts' prediction. When we have no idea which way the market may move, therefore I think the hike or no hike does not help us for trading. Well, just my opinion.

the nos. will keep changing until late tmrw, i suppose!

You are an objective man, my friend,.. and I am proud to be a debating compadre with you,...

Yes, I agree with your final statement and I have performed the following : I have sold-off half of my ASX holdings and have converted them into the SGD. Now I'm waiting for the 'window of opportunity' to come. Along with this amt and with the SG divdiends that I have earned and accumulated, my warchest is READY !

I was earlier contemplating on converting back my SG dividends in order to buy-in more of the ASX units since they are so easy to get now,... I thought it was a no-brainer. However, that position has since evolved into selling-away from the ASX, and focussing more into the SG REITs,... because I believed a window of opportunity will again open for SG REITs.

Thank you, yok,... very good points. Hence, the only thing we can do is to prepare our warchest, and when the direction of the mkt finally shows itself, we are ready. On top of the above, we can do A LITTLE BIT MORE by looking at past numbers, historical events and current analyses to prepare ourselves, so as to spare ourselves the inconvenience of rushing to buy or sell when the signal appears.

We must be ready.