nymex, brent all propping up ny near 1%. I just cant see reasons for the recovery after yday drop. seems very good support at 44.30-50!!!

deleted..double post

This post has been edited by mikehwy: Sep 15 2015, 08:45 PM

it has come down a $ or >2% from few days ago.

probably just the usual ups and downs, short cover maybe.

it still seems to track dow... but overall, still bearish.

waiting for dow to slack, dwti >120 again.

wow, bulls everywhere i am seeing, after work. busy to decide what to throw and at what price....what a delightful stress!

nice bull.

crude going nowhere...

The American Petroleum Institute (API) will issue its weekly report on U.S. crude inventories after the market's settlement, at 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT).
A preliminary Reuters poll indicated that U.S. crude stockpiles likely remained flat last week, after four straight weeks of gains.

good read:

crazy movements crazy movements.... y y y
dollars got shorted, oil big big up, asia n europe indices big big up.... fed no action n talk only ???

i still think fed will hike rates, a small one.

anyway, tonite and tmrw nite will be wobbly, i expect.

gold is still expecting rate hike.

so, oil.. i still think the gain is temp can swing violently.

got out last nite with ikan bilis.

on standby mode, will see what happens later...

My bet only 25 % chance the fed will hike rates.
Low oil price is the culprit to the inflation rate.

latest ...
inflation is lower than fed want

I need to move myself out of all this noise, and position myself to any one of the following eventualities :-

1) Fed hikes on Friday morning.

2) Fed does not hike on Friday morning, but hikes in October.

3) Fed does not hike on Friday morning, nor in October, but hikes around Christmas 2015.

But I have a stable opinion that the hike will only be of 25 bps for the first round. Subsequently, very hard to tell.

Hahhhh,... that's the one,... mkt is forward-looking, and inflation is not in-line,.. so now : you guys think hike or not ???

i think no hike YET. fed learned its lesson in 1997 and saw 1998 crash + ovcer priced assets + global economy now + china recession and equity 'depression' ...

.but, i prefer hike just to get rid of all the noises and confusing opinions ... re member the QE? it delayed growth of my portfolio population, lol

I thnk 'no hike' too for Friday morning, unless another number comes out that 'supersedes the impact of the inflation number to the Feds', for which I do not think there is any, anymore. It's just another two working days to ann't day....

hike or not, doesn't matter. really. economy numbers are more essential.

agree. its a matter of time for hike. i prefer to get the pain over fast fast.

katese...
crude oil inventory fell 2.1m barrels (last was +2.6m)

Sound like how rates will move higher is actually far more important than when they move higher.

On the contrary, I would think the knee-jerk reaction from the actual hike is MORE IMPORTANT than whatever data available out there. If we wish to take advantage of this knee-jerk reaction, than we must be prepared for it with our 'warchest' ready.

But of course, the opposite can happen too with a hike.

After the knee-jerk reaction, the mkt will slowly stabilise as the dust settles, and that's when the economic numbers comes into play again.

The actual hike is impt - depending on your view abt WHAT WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN UPON THE OFFICIAL NEWS OF A HIKE, we should prepare ourselves with our bullets. I don't know how long will the window be available for us to take action before the dust settles fully, but I think we need to be fast.

NO,.. they will not dare to move too much,.. that's for sure !!! They will move up gradually. SO : when they move is actually more impt for us to take advantage of the move.