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 USA Stock Discussion v7, Greece Debt Crisis!

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danmooncake
post Aug 24 2015, 08:53 PM

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I'll be watching for capitulation and reversal opportunity tonight.
If China tanks.. US market probably lead the recovery once again.

It's attractive here for AAPL.. just 5 more pts to 95 for 52 week low once again.
Also for longer term, all 3 indexes now got more than 10% correction. nod.gif
danmooncake
post Aug 24 2015, 09:24 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 24 2015, 09:14 PM)
looks like huge insult to TA n FA guys who accumulate equits tooday. !!!
hope Dan is right to see aa reversal opportunity, but better no delay...
*
On days like this, if you're long. Don't get emotion gets in way. Stay calm.

But, if you're holding cash.. it is also bargain days (or be greedy when fear at its highest, look at the ^VIX).
Think longer term of you're into stocks. There are tons of those taken down
for not the same reason hitting China and commodity.

It's been quite some time since I last saw limit down from NYSE and SP500 future down 100 pts.
danmooncake
post Aug 24 2015, 09:50 PM

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See.. sorta capitulation seen immediately at open with -1000 pts for Dow.

Got some here at DIA 151, SPY 184, VZ 39, AAPL 94
All long term hold here.

Don't panic.. long day ahead but we shall see if market can hold here by Europe close.

danmooncake
post Aug 24 2015, 09:51 PM

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QUOTE(netmask8 @ Aug 24 2015, 09:50 PM)
VIX 28pts now. VIX = 30 till 35 ?
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35?? Haven't seen that for a long long time. Maybe Lehman days? hmm.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 24 2015, 09:52 PM
danmooncake
post Aug 24 2015, 10:15 PM

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QUOTE(netmask8 @ Aug 24 2015, 10:07 PM)
Waiting too long for VIX to spike to fearful mode and also
Waiting for market correction for almost 4 years. Time to grab some good bargain price. Keep some bullets for 2 - 3rd stage next month, when FED hike 1st interest rate in 9 yrs.
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If Fed delay raising rate (the probability lowered to 28% now) again.. I think the market will soar like rocket ship. biggrin.gif


danmooncake
post Aug 24 2015, 10:22 PM

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I think we were seeing a lot of forced selling right at open (those margin players) when Dow -1000 pts.

Anyway, I got tons of alerts and some auto-bot. Even wife called me at this hour and said add more to her Roth account.
She's my secondary stock watcher and buy and hold type.


danmooncake
post Aug 24 2015, 10:29 PM

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Walau.. AAPL just regained all back to 105. biggrin.gif thumbup.gif

What a gift.
danmooncake
post Aug 24 2015, 10:49 PM

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50% recovery from the low and let see if it stays here by closing, it would be good enough. biggrin.gif
danmooncake
post Aug 25 2015, 08:55 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 25 2015, 07:02 PM)
ask bijan et al ... 2.50 is correct answer.

ask bloomberg, others 4.5-5.0. tongue.gif
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The currency buy/sell spread is quite wide despite the rout since last week. Eventho I see the rate at 4.25,
best rate that I got from my bank is 4.16 plus commission if I'm to TT over yesterday. hmm.gif
Maybe indeed need to wait a little further down to 4.40-4.50 level to see better real exchange rate.



QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 25 2015, 06:41 PM)
cut rates, more money to lend out.
cut reserve requirements, higher liquidity.

double action to allow more money and easier to go to stock markets, ok! laugh.gif
and weaken the currency.
this action by china will spook all emerging markets with china as major trading partner.
some will be pressurized to follow suit, ease... lower currencies to compete or cushion trade imbalance.

just when the rm got a breather today with bursa gaining 30 pts.
meanwhile, china stocks can recover.
better put yr rm while it is still "strong" in usd china stocks.

ok, just bs'ing here. tongue.gif
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That's the lifeline that they need. It's probably the right move since they got lots of room to maneuver since
they've been going the opposite direction of US Fed since 2011 to tame their hot property market and inflation.

Anyway, seeing lots of greens again for pre-market. Time to get some grouper meals here. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 25 2015, 09:02 PM
danmooncake
post Aug 26 2015, 01:28 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 26 2015, 12:20 AM)
bullish.... laugh.gif

oil....seriously, it's short term, either up or down. just looking at balance, and we don't know where is the balance point. middle east countries cannot take it for too long, and US oil companies see this, so they continues to produce oil, waiting for the opec or whosoever to take aggressive action on low price. Hard time fighting these high tech companies. US is the winner on high tech, still the world #1.  biggrin.gif
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It's really hard to trade crude and also difficult to gauge the producers - like you've stated, which one will break first and waive the white flag, then we may get a turn around for oil price.

Right now, the small timers with most expensive cost are suffering. Also, we got the Iran situation - vowed will increase their oil wells to full production to grab back market share that was lost during the sanction years.
How low do you go to win? I'm sure both sides also suffer because margin so small already.

If like that better sell mineral water, right? Easier profits.. tongue.gif



danmooncake
post Aug 26 2015, 04:06 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 26 2015, 03:40 AM)
looks like bear wins today....oops.... laugh.gif
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Darn. the last hour, everyone exiting. It's bull trap... sweat.gif
danmooncake
post Aug 26 2015, 09:50 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 26 2015, 06:57 PM)
ya...quite true. buyers hesitation. I am a good example. buy too early, each buying costs loss. after few tries, turn into wait mode. However, this afternoon bought again in hk market, too cheap to hesitate. bought and forget, maybe 5 years.  laugh.gif
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It's difficult to time the market. Just set a target and buy/sell some when it happens (like auto-trigger with gtc).

This week been quite volatile.
Gap down.. panic sell and buy, next day gap up.. retrace and fill. Tonight, gap up again - most likely will be the same pattern, take a few step back and fill. sp500/dow/nasdaq is forming like a pennant shape. I think nasdaq is likely to heal better than the other two.


danmooncake
post Aug 27 2015, 10:07 PM

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It is still recovering.. can bulls muster enough strength to push back above 1970-1975? hmm.gif



danmooncake
post Aug 27 2015, 10:17 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 27 2015, 10:06 PM)
latest ...

pending home sales (property and real estate) rebound by 0.5 %

gdp grew more than forecast (at 3.2%?) ...

beijing intervenes again today ...
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The UE numbers are better that expected too (271k vs 274k expected) as reported by US DOL at 6:30am EST.
danmooncake
post Aug 27 2015, 11:19 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 27 2015, 11:15 PM)
crude is very bullish today.

1st time seeing +7% in a few hrs! biggrin.gif
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Omg.. so is XLE after being pummeled so badly since last week.

danmooncake
post Aug 28 2015, 09:10 PM

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It's friday... after up so much, must take profit and keep some for weekend, rite? tongue.gif
danmooncake
post Aug 28 2015, 09:14 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 28 2015, 06:55 PM)
good for u!
djia futures -1xx, crude retreating.

looks like fun tonight. tongue.gif
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QUOTE
The industry has been grappling with years of "cord cutting" - consumers, especially young people, cancelling or not even subscribing to traditional cable bundles and simply choosing their TV experience "a la carte," whether that's via Netflix, Hulu or Amazon Prime.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/28/media-bosse...rd-cutting.html
This part is true. Not only US but in Singapore too. Much of the content now avail from Internet. Streaming is the new in-thing.
SmartTV or attached IP boxes allow it to be done easily with click on button. Heck, my old folks in M'sia also got those and they watching tons of programs from overseas. Who needs Astro? tongue.gif
danmooncake
post Sep 1 2015, 09:52 PM

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Waah.. China again. doh.gif

But, let's watch that 1925-1930 level for ikan bilis opportunity. biggrin.gif
danmooncake
post Sep 2 2015, 04:55 AM

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Aiyo yo... went out for last 2 hour.. came back after close,
Dow dip below 16k for a few secs and came back up slightly head above water only.

Almost -500 pts today.. This bear is getting fierce lah! sweat.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Sep 2 2015, 07:54 AM
danmooncake
post Sep 2 2015, 10:54 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 2 2015, 09:56 AM)
i was very tempted but resisted.

but seeing oil still diving, took some inverse energy etf in the end.

oil has given up 1/2 of what it recently gained.

looks like going back to 40... sweat.gif
*
I have to stay out of energy eventho very tempting. Going to stay sidelines and see if last week low can hold on not for general market.

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