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 Fundsupermart.com v11, Grexit or not, Europe will sail on...

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SUSyklooi
post Jul 11 2015, 09:49 AM

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Reached the Seminar venue at 8.40am today....
the guards demanded RM 5 for parking fees....
They said last time no need now must pay....
I reversed my car and drive away go makan Prawn mee in Anzon road....now at MCD drink coffee.
SUSyklooi
post Jul 11 2015, 09:52 AM

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QUOTE(MR_alien @ Jul 11 2015, 09:49 AM)
ponzi 2.0 and greater china got biggest drop
so instead of topping up ponzi 2.0 which i already did end of june...why dnt just go greater china
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Ponzi 2.0 also has a large % in Greater China region too....
after top up both funds...will the total % of Greater China region too much in your portfolio for your comfort?
if yes,...you are ok...then go ahead
SUSyklooi
post Jul 11 2015, 10:14 AM

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QUOTE(MR_alien @ Jul 11 2015, 10:06 AM)
greater china only consist of a small percentage of my portfolio
ponzi on the othe hand consist of a big percentage of my portfolio
even as small percentage....the drop in greater china still more than ponzi 2.0
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hmm.gif a view from an optimistic....
even as small percentage....the rise in greater china still more than ponzi 2.0 thumbup.gif

no right or wrong...just different views...and for some people this direction of view maybe changed frequently too.

This post has been edited by yklooi: Jul 11 2015, 10:18 AM
SUSyklooi
post Jul 11 2015, 10:26 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jul 11 2015, 10:03 AM)
My Ponzi 2.0 IRR from 20%+ dropped to 10%
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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jul 11 2015, 10:21 AM)
The bubble in Shanghai A shares was in the small-mid caps

Blue chips are still fundamentally sound and priced fairly, if not attractively
I quote this from the Schroeder report I linked from FSM recently

Furthermore, Ponzi 2.0 is invested more into Hong Kong-listed "S" shares wink.gif
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hmm.gif just curious at your Ponzi 2.0 IRR....dropped by 50%...much bigger than the drops in SSE at about 35%
This IRR dropped to 10%, how much % does the ROI of yr Ponzi 2.0 drops?

This post has been edited by yklooi: Jul 11 2015, 10:27 AM
SUSyklooi
post Jul 11 2015, 10:33 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jul 11 2015, 10:28 AM)
I don't track ROI, I only track IRR.
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hmm.gif assuming one holds a funds for 2 years
ROI is 40% (for easy calculation)ROI 40/2 yrs thus IRR is 20%
if now the ROI is 20% thus the IRR is 10%
thus ROI drops 20%?

is my calculation and assumption corrects?
SUSyklooi
post Jul 11 2015, 10:37 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jul 11 2015, 10:28 AM)
I don't track ROI, I only track IRR.

And...drop in rate of IRR vs drop in absolute terms...not a fair comparison. Two different things.
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hmm.gif yes 2 different things.....just a "queried" view that a regional funds is more risky than a single country focused one eventhough the drops this time is mainly from this country?
SUSyklooi
post Jul 11 2015, 10:40 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jul 11 2015, 10:38 AM)
dun pagi pagi test my matematik lar rclxub.gif
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notworthy.gif Sorry-lah...not much people in the workforce can helps....
"Nearly three-quarters of the local workforce are without any tertiary education, ...."
http://www.thestar.com.my/News/Nation/2015...ithout-degrees/
SUSyklooi
post Jul 11 2015, 10:45 AM

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QUOTE(MR_alien @ Jul 11 2015, 10:40 AM)
yup....that was what i'm thinking abt...since greater china suffers the biggest lose
topup that...when it rebound...it would cover back the loss
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rclxms.gif flex.gif
hmm.gif just that be careful.....(now pouring cold water)....sorry.
the last time China funds corrected in 2007/2008...the wait for rebound was till 2014

SUSyklooi
post Jul 11 2015, 11:07 AM

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FSM View on the Recent Market Sell-Off in China

Currently, FSM do not see any significant changes on the fundamentals of the Chinese market.
The headwinds are most from excessive margin lending and expensive valuation on the A shares of small- and mid-cap companies, deteriorating market sentiment.
Current market situation suggests that H shares see better investment values, showing more attractiveness to mainland investors who are after lower volatility.
Despite the fact that H shares were always the first to be affected when A shares’ bubble bursted in the past, H shares tended to demonstrate better resilience than A shares in a down market. Unlike A shares, the H-share market is mainly composed of institutional investors who focus more on value, and hence it is less likely to experience the same “herd effect” driven by individual investors.
As of 3 July, the 2015 and 2016 estimated PE of CSI 300, representing the A-share market, dropped from 20.42X at the beginning of June to only 14.8X and 13.0X, which are in fact close to the fair value; whereas H shares estimated PE for 2015 and 2016 are now trading at 10.8X and 9.7X against the 12X fair PE, showing a significant discount. Investors can consider capturing such upside potential using the dollar cost averaging strategy to invest in high-quality H-share funds.

http://www.fundsupermart.com.hk/hk/main/re...articleNo=10016
SUSyklooi
post Jul 11 2015, 11:13 AM

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doh.gif the flow of noises never seems to ends....
China and Greece is almost over,...now this....
High valuations weigh on U.S. stocks ahead of earnings
As companies in the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 begin to release lackluster second quarter results, rich valuations threaten to keep the U.S. stock market spinning in place.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/11/...N0PK27O20150711

This post has been edited by yklooi: Jul 11 2015, 11:16 AM


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SUSyklooi
post Jul 11 2015, 05:03 PM

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QUOTE(xuzen @ Jul 11 2015, 04:05 PM)
Hmmmm yummy simple fifth grade soalan kira-kira:

Let's put some numbers for illustration.

Initial capital = RM 10,000.00

After two years, portfolio = 14,000.00 = ROI 40%.

IRR or CAGR =/= 20% = 18.32% p.a.

Lets say it drops 20%; 14,000 - 20% = RM 11,200.00

Then IRR =/= 10% = 5.83% p.a.

Now you owe me coffee....

Xuzen
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rclxms.gif notworthy.gif
let's say....(from the 1st part your illustration).

Initial capital = RM 10,000.00

After two years, portfolio = 14,000.00 = ROI 40%.

IRR or CAGR =/= 20% = 18.32% p.a.

If the IRR dropped by half (18.32/2=9.16%), what is the % of ROI drops?

Kopi Tarik on the way....

SUSyklooi
post Jul 11 2015, 06:45 PM

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QUOTE(xuzen @ Jul 11 2015, 05:46 PM)
if IRR = 9.16% p.a., then the corresponding end period value is RM 11,915.00

the drop is from RM 14,000 to RM 11,915 i.e., a 14.89% drop in simple arimethic calculation.

Hence if the IRR is halved from 18.32 to 9.16, then the corresponding ROI drop is 14.89% and is not 20%.

You need to appreciate that arimethic is a simple straight line calculation whereas IRR is compounded return and uses geometric calculation (exponential and logarithmic function)
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rclxms.gif notworthy.gif ....
Clear your porch...a big cup of coffee coming up

(for the blue one..... rclxub.gif ) have to get another cup too... cheers.gif


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SUSyklooi
post Jul 12 2015, 07:11 AM

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QUOTE(j.passing.by @ Jul 11 2015, 11:23 PM)
If I may add, it is sort of a trick question; by asking how would the ROI drop in comparison to the IRR.

IRR or CAGR has the element of time, while ROI has not. The ROI can remain the same, and the IRR will decrease as time moves forward.

For example:
If IRR is 9.16% p.a., and the corresponding end period value (in 2 years) is RM 11,915.00. The ROI is 19.15%

And if the ROI is still RM1,915 or 19.15% at the end of 3 years, the IRR is 6.01%
And if the ROI is still RM1,915 or 19.15% at the end of 4 years, the IRR is 4.48%

In other words, if you pull out of an investment and keep the profits under your bed, you locked in the ROI but not the IRR.  hmm.gif
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hmm.gif rclxms.gif yes,...good illustration. notworthy.gif

my question is, if someone said, that his China fund's IRR dropped from 20%+ to IRR 10%
(so the time is I think is about 3 weeks different)....just wondering how much did his fund's ROI dropped in %.
(yes, I know Fund Returns tabs in the FSM can do that.....jus that it did not show that much....it just showed -6.5%.)
hmm.gif now come to think of it,...will his regular top ups of < 12 months time frame played a role in the big different of variance of IRR and ROI?

This post has been edited by yklooi: Jul 12 2015, 08:18 AM
SUSyklooi
post Jul 12 2015, 07:19 AM

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QUOTE(idyllrain @ Jul 12 2015, 12:57 AM)
If anyone's interested, I've added the following code in polarzbearz IRR Excel sheet to obtain the latest NAV prices from FSM with just one click (I attached the macro to a button).
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rclxms.gif rclxms.gif notworthy.gif Appreciated your contribution....that would really be VERY useful
hmm.gif will there be any other (indirectly linked) complication?
polarzbearz...could you check it out and test it out?
if ok,...then Please update it in the "mastercopy" and put it up so that it could be downloaded?

Some people says "GOD works in mysterious ways"
idyllrain 1st post, New member (but joined Apr 2008?)...great contribution!!
hmm.gif (just wondering who you really are).... biggrin.gif
Thanks anyway.. notworthy.gif

This post has been edited by yklooi: Jul 12 2015, 07:39 AM
SUSyklooi
post Jul 12 2015, 07:29 AM

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QUOTE(David83 @ Jul 11 2015, 10:51 PM)
Why failed?

Any reason? Uncle got privileged membership! whistling.gif
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yes,..special priviledged membership to a RM 5 car park special! biggrin.gif
SUSyklooi
post Jul 12 2015, 07:44 AM

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QUOTE(David83 @ Jul 12 2015, 07:39 AM)
Venue is not at Wawasan University? Not free parking?
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was for the many times....
But was told by the guards that now have to pay RM5.
I think it is "sendiri makan" one...so I left....used the RM5 go sendiri makan a bowl of prawn mee..
hmm.gif if I pay RM 5 and go in...and got tips...maybe can eat abalone mee. ... doh.gif ohmy.gif
SUSyklooi
post Jul 12 2015, 08:00 AM

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QUOTE(David83 @ Jul 12 2015, 07:56 AM)
Where you tried to park?

Last time I parked at multi level car park.

Are you trying to park at those lots outside the building? LOL
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The guards standing in the front of the entrance just after the turn in from the main road....no chance to enter the multistory carpark that I used to
SUSyklooi
post Jul 12 2015, 08:06 AM

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QUOTE(David83 @ Jul 12 2015, 08:01 AM)
Have you send an email to FSM for complaint or clarification?
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yes,...
Btw,....the KL seminar's carpark also have to Pay RM 5 per entry too?
SUSyklooi
post Jul 12 2015, 08:36 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Jul 12 2015, 08:28 AM)
Perhaps u consider motorbike next time  hmm.gif
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bike not available...will try taxi the next time tongue.gif
SUSyklooi
post Jul 12 2015, 03:34 PM

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QUOTE(j.passing.by @ Jul 12 2015, 01:30 PM)
You should stop wondering and make any further detective work on how much the ROI dropped; since the relevant info on how long the investment was held was not giventongue.gif

You should also note that the -6.5% is based on a chart with a 3 weeks old date as its starting point. If you use one-year-old date, or any other date as the starting point, the growth rate will be different. Maybe showing a huge gain instead of a negative growth.

"...his China fund's IRR dropped from 20%+ to IRR 10%"
Are you working on the wrong premise that the drop is -10%?

Be careful with the "English" in the sentences.
It only shows a 10% difference; not a "drop in percentage".

A "percentage drop" is calculated based on its initial value. Going from 20 to 10, is a -50% drop.  smile.gif

So you see, you have made several wrong maths logic to built up a question or maths problem. How to find a valid solution to an invalid problem?  wink.gif
Thank you. I think it is worthwhile to further clarify some maths logic, especially IRR, since it has implications on how we do the 'investments' in unit trusts.
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rclxms.gif yes,...seems like how long the investment period did have BIG play in how the ROI% moves....
rclxms.gif you are right.... notworthy.gif
did a trial and error method.....



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