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 Traders Kopitiam! V8

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TC-Titan
post Oct 21 2015, 11:24 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Oct 21 2015, 11:09 AM)
Peat soil cost more $$$ to plant (stripping, drainage), cost more to maintain (soil conditioning & fertilizer use), damaging to environment (due to massive green house gas release) and have lower palm oil yield. Also CPO from peat soil plantation is selling below actual price due to RSPO ban. Prominent companies like Wilmar, Nestle, Unilever will not buy oils from peat soil plantations. Environmental friendly fund manager wont touch it either.. 

So Higher fixed cost, higher variable cost & lower revenue = less margin compared to other planters

Add in less support from institutional... (especially foreign)..  wink.gif

P.s. The haze you are smelling now is due to peat soil fire in Kalimantan..  brows.gif
*
What's your opinion of KMLoong?

Any idea where to search for average tree age apart from analyst reports? I think not all comp annual reports n website give that info.

Was checking out First Resources = super rock solid in comparison to Golden Agri.

TC-Titan
post Oct 21 2015, 02:27 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Oct 21 2015, 12:46 PM)
KM Loong

Johor - 1,093 Ha
Sarawak - 10,471 Ha (Plantable only 6,300 Ha, newest venture)
Sabah - 11,948 Ha

Total Planted
Mature - 13,581 Ha
Immature - 1,320 Ha
Unplanted - 461 Ha

Yield : 22.49 tpha - Fair Yield

Sabah - CPO Mill - 105 MT FFB/hr
Johor - CPO Mill - 100 MT FFB/hr
Mills OER - 22.4% - Fair OER

Tree Age
Immature : 13%
Mature : 21%
Aging : 66%

Notes :
No future growth due to lack of plantable reserve land
No land to plant means low capex hence high free cash flow
Low immature tress, future growth will be low
Once Sarawak plantation comes to maturity will lower the yield and OER
*
Wow! Thanks Abang Gark.

I saw the info on total planted inside the 2015 AR. But need to spend more time to figure out the rest (which I think some of it are from Statistics, List of Properties and other sections).

From their current balance sheet, their cash warchest is huge! Should be easy for them to acquire more land at other states and countries.

They give quite a decent dividend yield too. But I agree with you on the growth catalyst part, difficult to see the share price rising above 6 bucks. 3 to 5 should be achievable.

Just saw this article TheEdge- KMLoong write-up

TC-Titan
post Oct 21 2015, 06:39 PM

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Sifus, what are the two Sushi stocks that you guys are referring to? hmm.gif

Almost sounds like bed-time punya talk. sweat.gif sweat.gif
TC-Titan
post Oct 21 2015, 06:39 PM

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-delete-

This post has been edited by TC-Titan: Oct 21 2015, 06:39 PM
TC-Titan
post Oct 21 2015, 07:59 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 21 2015, 06:45 PM)
laugh.gif

kasihan niiiiii.........  tongue.gif
*
This Abang Boon sooooooo the happy d!!! biggrin.gif

His container loads of "USD" stocks flying sky high saying good bye to our lil RM drool.gif laugh.gif

Lesson from Fishy Ah Boon. Dun play KFC trade. Trade like a fussy boss, play container loads that will multiple to even more containers!!! drool.gif

tongue.gif biggrin.gif laugh.gif
TC-Titan
post Oct 22 2015, 09:09 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 22 2015, 08:34 AM)
The fish....  laugh.gif  laugh.gif  laugh.gif

user posted image

user posted image
*
Nice sushi abang boon! Lemme guess, your average price u entered was about 1.10 right? biggrin.gif

Sushi kedua?
TC-Titan
post Oct 22 2015, 09:33 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 22 2015, 09:17 AM)
rolleyes.gif
.... and the point of the question?
*
To gauge your fishing/trading skills. Based on the chart I think u hantam/traded 2 times. biggrin.gif

Coz u always emphasize u r a fussy trader who always does less, but your less is very impactful. So newb like me must learn from a great sifu like abang boon lo on trading like a boss. biggrin.gif

Curious to know the connection/correlation between sushi 1 and sushi 2.

This post has been edited by TC-Titan: Oct 22 2015, 09:34 AM
TC-Titan
post Oct 22 2015, 10:11 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 22 2015, 09:39 AM)
It's pointless to study me.
It's yourself that's most more important....
*
I agree... but it helps a lot if got role model to follow.

Especially when u r thinking of investing/trading.... u may be quite bias with your assessment. So it helps when u think of a fisherman who likes to give his 2 cents opinion and has his own "poison". U will start to think what can go wrong or what can do better if the fisherman was counselling u teeheee biggrin.gif

My emotions/psychology may be tempted to just cheong in or out. But if I remember a legendary fussy trader who only dwells with baggers, then I will know I can and should do better, so no cheong lo. biggrin.gif
TC-Titan
post Oct 22 2015, 02:37 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Oct 22 2015, 09:40 AM)
Give you hint.. he entered at A LOT LESS than RM 1.10..  whistling.gif

For first round at least..  laugh.gif

That one was a multi bagger..  brows.gif
*
Hahaha wasn't expecting sushi to be mother n son.

I tot it was related stocks of the same industry. So was thinking whether u guys were referring to unisem, mpi or gtronic.

Ah Boon fishing/trading skill banyak deadly oh. Me scared d. tongue.gif
TC-Titan
post Oct 22 2015, 07:43 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 22 2015, 10:04 AM)
1. I DON'T follow.

Develop your own trading skills.
Never ever follow anyone.... esp your closest family member(s).

2. When I was new in the market....
I paper traded.

Money is precious for me,
There is NO SUCH thing as TUITION FEES.
It's stupid for me la.
If want to learn the stock market....
the one and only way is to paper trade for a few years.
Learn it well... then only enter the market.
*
The funny thing about investments hor is everybody is influenced and tempted to make big and fast money.
When in school or at work, we are trained to always prepare for exam or prepare for the projects. do simulations etc.

But when it comes to investing, a lot of people don't bother to do paper trade. don't bother to read and understand what the heck they are doing or what they are investing/trading into. This includes me. whistling.gif doh.gif

So as a young person or not, normally a lot of people cincai hantam few thousand on stocks "strongly" recommended by family members, friends, Siputs, analyst etc.

Interesting right to find out in the end based on experience, reading and sharing/discussion with others... the only right way to do it is to really paper trade for a few years to really understand the mechanics of investing, don't simply to listen to people and to control your emotions when market swing up and down like yoyo.


QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 21 2015, 09:25 PM)
I am not a container player laaaa....

ie ... I don't play MANY stocks .......

I always said before ..... less is more!
*
Erm... so how many stocks do you trade on hand? 3 to 10 or up to 20?

Why I ask this? Coz Uncle Peter Lynch had over 1k plus stocks during his time at Fidelity. A decent trader/investor will have 10 to 50 stocks on hand or standby to trade. There are always a lot of new and interesting companies to make money from. So to abstain from them all and just focus on that 10 stocks = to some extend limiting your trading/investing skill right? (But if u make a tonne of money from that 10 stocks = bagus lo)

QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 22 2015, 10:28 AM)
Bagging is over hyped and overrated la.

The theory is simple.

The big money is in the waiting...
this was what written 100 years ago....
and it still holds.

you hire a chef.
now as long as the chef is willing and ABLE to cook great food for you to mum mum....
why change?

you enter a trade based on X,Y, Z assumptions.....
now as long as X,Y, X continues to hold true....
why exit and enter the trade?
for everyone knows that it's impossible to catch every single in and out perfectly....
missed one entry back in....
and one might screw oneself's profits.
*
If you can have patience and the wisdom to do well with one stock and hold till return multiple baggers = not overrated lo.
Problem is how many people can or willing to do that.

A good trader will argue that the time u take to hold that one stock to achieve say 3 bagger, they can trade many stocks with the same time frame to achieve higher than 3 bagger returns. But seriously, how many people are that pro.

But long story short, I agree with your favourite sayings la which I will quote as follows:
QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 22 2015, 10:40 AM)

to know own self is most important.
know your own capabilities and abilities first.

not everyone can be a trader.
not everyone can be an investor.

but as long as you know your own limitations.....
you should be able to reap what you have sowed..... biggrin.gif
*
TC-Titan
post Oct 22 2015, 07:43 PM

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-delete-

This post has been edited by TC-Titan: Oct 22 2015, 07:43 PM
TC-Titan
post Oct 23 2015, 02:47 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 23 2015, 02:33 PM)
Lol....

Try paper trade ma.....

See if you can develop/improve your buying.

Take Top glove recently....
When we talked it was just off its all time high...
Look at the price now....
How much has the price increased?
Why?
It's such a misconception about stock highs....
Remember when a stock hits a high....
Usually there's a reason for the high demand for stock...
And sometimes....
The demand is do justifiable that the stock continues to hit new highs after new highs for many years.....

smile.gif
*
Saya mau cuba.

If I was trading Top Glove recently, I will would have entered at around 7.92
Why? Coz I can see the share price consolidating from mid July to early Oct based on the minimal price movement at the top and the volume.
There is similar characteristics in the past.
So this tells me there is a high chance the price can still go up...
in the end from overall chart... I see a higher high and higher low consistency.
If I am wrong, just cut-loss at either 5 to 10% of entry price.
But when the big volume comes in higher than the normal average, u know they are starting to buy or cook up the stock higher.

Berapa markah cikgu?

TC-Titan
post Oct 23 2015, 02:51 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 23 2015, 02:49 PM)
Zero markah.....

Cos I am asking about another stock. tongue.gif
laugh.gif
*
Lolz naiizzz~! thumbup.gif rclxms.gif
TG more interesting at the moment for me versus homeboy.
TC-Titan
post Oct 23 2015, 02:56 PM

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Okla, if for homeboy that I masuk at 98 to 99 cents.
Same theory as per TG. I see higher high and higher low.
You can see a similar pattern from the past as well but the period varies (1 to few months) before the action to push the price comes in.
TC-Titan
post Nov 1 2015, 06:06 PM

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Unker gark, not sure if you saw this.


Oil industry slipping into the red as outlook dims
By Reuters / Reuters | October 29, 2015 : 11:25 PM MYT

LONDON/OSLO/MILAN (Oct 29): The oil sector is gradually slipping into the red after years of fat profits as the slump in oil prices and a grim outlook bite deeper.

The world's top oil companies have struggled in recent months to cope with the halving of oil prices since June 2014, cutting spending repeatedly, making thousands of job cuts and scrapping projects.

The lower-for-longer outlook for oil prices took its heaviest toll yet in the third quarter as oil companies once again reported a dramatic drop in income, with some falling to a loss, having taken impairment charges of about US$25 billion in the first nine months of the year.

With 10 of the top 20 European and North American oil and gas producers having reported third-quarter results, seven have posted losses.

These include Royal Dutch Shell ( Valuation: None, Fundamental: None), Italy's Eni and in North America Occidental Petroleum Corp, Anadarko Petroleum Corp, Hess Corp, Suncor and ConocoPhillips.

Shell, posted a third-quarter loss of US$7.4 billion on Thursday, hit by a massive US$8.2 billion charge after halting its controversial exploration in Alaska's Arctic sea and a costly oil sands project in Canada.

Downward revision

About half of Shell's charges reflected a downward revision of the company's long-term oil and gas price outlook, Chief Executive Ben van Beurden said.

The company's net profit excluding identified items collapsed to US$1.8 billion, from US$5.85 billion a year ago, reflecting the trend among its peers.

Eni, meanwhile, reported a net loss of US$1 billion and France's Total came in with a sharp year-on-year drop in profit, though its results were stronger than expected.

"The sector is rapidly moving into the red," Jefferies oil and gas equities analyst Jason Gammel said.

"It is slowly going to claw its way back into the black through cost-reduction efforts, but that will take time. It will depend on price movements, but it will take time to get all these cost savings through the system."

Although European oil companies have reduced breakeven points significantly through cost efficiencies and spending cuts, they will on average require an oil price of around US$78 a barrel in 2016 to cover spending and dividend payments, according to Jefferies estimates before the latest results.

Analysts polled by Reuters expect Brent crude to average US$58.60 a barrel in 2016.

Shell, which Jefferies says has the lowest cashflow breakeven point at around US$66 a barrel, said it would axe an additional 1,000 jobs after announcing 6,500 job cuts earlier this year.

More debt

Companies are also tapping the debt market, benefiting from a relatively low debt ratio that will allow them to cover spending and dividend payments that, except for Eni, have remained unchanged.

Britain's BP, for example, increased its debt ratio to 20%, from 15% a year ago, after agreeing in July to pay US$20 billion in fines relating to the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

The downturn has forced Europe's majors to reduce 2015 spending programmes by about 15% to near US$107 billion and the cuts are set to become even deeper next year.

On Tuesday Norway's Statoil posted worse than expected third-quarter core earnings and said it would continue cutting costs by slashing capital expenditure by a further US$1 billion to US$16.5 billion.

The sharp drop in revenue from oil production, however, has been offset by spectacular gains in refining and trading segments as lower prices boosted global fuel demand, though the positive impact is expected to fade with the seasonal drop in demand over the winter months.

BP, like Total, managed to beat analyst expectations this week despite a sharp year-on-year profit fall, citing increased efficiencies, higher oil production and strong refining results.

Shell and Eni shares were down 1.4% and 1.8% respectively at 1422 GMT, with Total up by 0.4%. The European oil and gas index was largely flat.



Mon Oct 26, 2015 | 1:39 AM EDT
Oil prices could go 'sharply lower' as product inventories near maximum capacity: Goldman Sachs

By Henning Gloystein

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Crude oil prices could drop sharply lower as refined product storage sites come close to maximum capacity, further adding to a glut that has already seen crude prices fall by more than half since June 2014, Goldman Sachs said.

Although "tank tops" - a term referring to storage capacities hitting their maximum - were unlikely, Goldman said that inventories were already "too close for comfort", bearing the potential for a sharp fall in crude prices.

"Distillate storage utilization in the U.S. and Europe is nearing historically high levels, following near record refinery utilization, only modest demand growth (especially relative to gasoline), and increased imports from the East on refinery expansion and Chinese exports," Goldman Sachs said.

"This raises the specter of 1998 (and) 2009 when distillate storage hit capacity, pushing runs and crude oil prices sharply lower," it added in its note to clients.

Crude oil prices have fallen by almost 60 percent since June last year, with production from producers in the Middle East, Russia and North America consistently above global demand.

As a result, Goldman said it did not expect oil markets to re-balance next year, a term used to describe a market in which supplies and demand are at similar levels.



PS: SKPetro macam ada bearish divergence and descending triangle right? hmm.gif
So if share price go down below RM2, plan to buy a few lorry load? tongue.gif

But if I ignore indicators, then I see a higher high, higher low with consolidation happening now... with potential to break upwards or downwards.

Any comments?

PSS: I don't own any SKPetro shares now as the fundamentals don't look attractive to me. sweat.gif
Traded long time ago. But if the price is around 1.50 then will consider entering. biggrin.gif
TC-Titan
post Nov 2 2015, 09:36 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 2 2015, 09:26 AM)
Errrr.....

user posted image

it looks to me like it is just consolidating and trading has tightened into a tight range.

well... force yourself to do a paper trade into this stock....

at what price would you buy in?
*
If to trade... then i que between 2.09 to 2.11 and target for breakout from 2.25 to reach 2.45. Then just ride the way if the price shows further signs of uptrend.

Cut loss around 1.95.


TC-Titan
post Nov 2 2015, 09:48 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 2 2015, 09:38 AM)
mark down the exact entry....
ps: too wide the cut loss.
*
Ok boss.

Say buy 2k shares at RM2.11 per share.
Cut-loss at RM2.00 (about 5%).


TC-Titan
post Nov 3 2015, 09:54 AM

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Wow Hibiscs falling like a boss since our previous discussion.
TC-Titan
post Nov 3 2015, 11:46 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Nov 3 2015, 10:11 AM)
Kondom sungguh kuat pagi ni flex.gif
*
Haha how many cartons of condoms u bought for your Viet Moi

Someone is messing with VS price. Buy 1 lot so many times. Fishing tactics

This post has been edited by TC-Titan: Nov 3 2015, 11:47 AM
TC-Titan
post Nov 3 2015, 03:41 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 3 2015, 03:04 PM)
What's the lesson to be learned from this?
*
1. Learn how to paper trade then study why stock go up n down.

2. Don't always buy cheap stocks that are downtrending as it can go lower and lower.

I remember the last time we were talking about Hibiscs it was around 68c. Lowest today was 25.5c. That's a 62.5% capital wiped out in just one month! shakehead.gif shocking.gif

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