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 Traders Kopitiam! V8

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TC-Titan
post Nov 3 2015, 04:03 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 3 2015, 03:53 PM)
Errr..... laugh.gif

post #1459

Quote:
This would be a good example to be filed under 'trading stocks because expectations the stock will be fried due to massive placement plans'.

Traders do take positions in a stock once they hear about big placement deals.

They love it. wink.gif

In the world of the stock market, agreements are usually made so that the placement takers benefit from taking up placement shares....
So traders buy, trying to gain a position in the stock by buying in early......

well... what are we seeing now?
*
I see 3 plausible outcomes:

a. Insiders making the stock go lower, so the new investor can enter at a cheaper price at market rate or at fixed price.

b. Insiders themselves together with swing traders trade when the price is lower (e.g if you bought at 25.5c and sell at close to suspended price of 36c = 41.1% return in few mins/hours)

c. The traders who bought during the announcement of the proposed private placement will get slaughtered.

TC-Titan
post Nov 3 2015, 04:07 PM

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QUOTE(yahiko @ Nov 3 2015, 03:59 PM)
ermm i tot is buy low sell high?  laugh.gif
*
Yahiko-san, that's the ideal strategy: buy low and sell high, provided the share price does u-turn and go up higher.

If reverse and go down lower, is also possible ma.

TC-Titan
post Nov 3 2015, 04:07 PM

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-delete-

This post has been edited by TC-Titan: Nov 3 2015, 04:09 PM
TC-Titan
post Nov 3 2015, 04:07 PM

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triple tap >_<

This post has been edited by TC-Titan: Nov 3 2015, 04:08 PM
TC-Titan
post Nov 3 2015, 04:32 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 3 2015, 04:16 PM)
Dude...

if you want to be good, stay focus at all times. smile.gif
buy low and sell high ..... is one misaligned statements in the stock market.
*
Yes boss, I'm doing ok with what I think is suitable for me.

However, I recently tried a breakout strategy u mentioned last time. Bought VS. Let's see how things pend out.
TC-Titan
post Nov 3 2015, 05:04 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 3 2015, 04:43 PM)
Each strategy/setup will have its risk.
You the user needs to adjust so that you are comfortable with the setup and you know where and when you can and WILL go wrong.

Buy low sell high is sold as an investment gospel.
So often that many times newbies thinking that they could muster these four words, reckon they are already on dunno what advanced level.
There's just so many ways it can and WILL go wrong.
*
Thanks for the reminder.

PS: SKPetro slowly naik. So all those technical crap I mentioned earlier on can buang d. Lesson learnt = learn to trade.
TC-Titan
post Nov 3 2015, 07:59 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 3 2015, 07:05 PM)
TC-Titan

This is the sideway consolidation phase I am looking at....

user posted image

and you compare it vs the other day's chart below....
nothing much has changed... tongue.gif

user posted image
*
Haha I forgot to check the chart to confirm on the resistance level for breakout. So I tot today's price movement was indicator of things to come.

On 2nd thought, the volume is still quite little n still have fair bit of room to go before breaching 2.25 or to breach 2.09.

So yes boss, nothing changed.

*smacks own head with imaginary paper trading journal doh.gif
TC-Titan
post Nov 4 2015, 09:53 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Nov 4 2015, 09:42 AM)
Read the analysis and check out their website, seems like they're venturing into online shop. A BIG plus.

Sites like Lazada have been doing well, if Padini venture into online, good thing. Recover lost ground thumbup.gif
*
But isn't that a sign that they r becoming desperate as perhaps retail sales isn't doing that well?

Entering to online sales now would be tough for them too, as they need to spend quite a fair bit of capex n structure their biz to cater for that. Dun forget they will be competing with lazada, zalora and tonnes of other online boutiques which are selling at cut throat prices. Gona be tough to compete n recover from those expenses.

Ni 2 sen saya sahaja.

TC-Titan
post Nov 4 2015, 10:43 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 4 2015, 10:32 AM)
Did you see?

It broke out of the range.... tongue.gif

So basically always two option....
chase the fella...
or wait for the fella to pullback/consolidate after the breakout...
Anyway, your paper trade turned out great...
when you decided to buy the stock at the lower end of the band....

thumbup.gif
*
Thanks Boon for the Masterclass lesson.
Good 7% profit d assuming this morning's high of 2.26.
Going to continue to observe to see how the price breaks out from 2.25 convincingly. Volume still seems low to me.

I almost wanted to key in a real trade today at 2.17. See see the price fly up d before can react on time lol. Nvm, learn more first. Alwiz have opportunities wan.
TC-Titan
post Nov 4 2015, 11:16 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 4 2015, 11:03 AM)
Btw....

now is the time to practice your sell. tongue.gif

your fake entry was at 2.11? yes?
or is it 2.12?

now what will you do with that trade?

how are you going to take profit?

tongue.gif
*
Hmmmm

EP: 2.11
Since just two days consecutive white candle, I believe still have room to hit 2.31 to 2.45.

First TP : 2.31
Second TP: 2.36
Ultimate TP: 2.45

Will take partial profit at 2.31 if i see the momentum slowing down.
TC-Titan
post Nov 4 2015, 05:05 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 4 2015, 11:48 AM)
Mark it down see what happens!

tongue.gif
*
Closed at 2.26 with nice volume.

A lot of buy trades at 2.23 to 2.25. Things should be interesting in the next 2 days.
TC-Titan
post Nov 4 2015, 05:37 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 4 2015, 05:29 PM)
doh.gif

Learn never to get excited.

tongue.gif
*
Awwwwwww but I'm only human. 10 cents move up in 1 day must be "excited" a bit la even though its just a paper trade.

But I agree la. Cannot be satisfied with this meager profit. We want MOOOARRRR~~~!!! biggrin.gif

Need more control of my emotions.

TC-Titan
post Nov 6 2015, 07:29 AM

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I think shud have some major action for homeboy today.

This post has been edited by TC-Titan: Nov 6 2015, 07:30 AM
TC-Titan
post Nov 6 2015, 09:55 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 6 2015, 09:35 AM)
How's the SKPet trade?
Did you jump out and mark a profit quickly yesterday morning?

2.17 now.  sweat.gif

it should probably trade as low as the low lower range set recently....
** ahh... this highlighted the risk in range breakout trading, doesn't it? **

** any major surprises? **
*
No didn't run. I think still too early to run. Still consolidating.

The announcement on the gas field development project may appear as a good thing, but that's another 1 bill plus debt in SKPet accounts. Expected first stream of income only on 4th qtr of FY17, so around end of 2016 assuming everything goes to plan.

Apart from the above oil price now still seems quite volatile. Yoyo between 45 to 55 every time.

So in this type of environment, I think must do quick trade get the 5 to 20% profit then cabut. Higher return % means u gotta enter at the lower band and pray the price breaks up n continue that trend.

Let me know if I'm looking at it wrongly.
TC-Titan
post Nov 6 2015, 10:48 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 6 2015, 10:21 AM)
You probably be shocked with my answer... tongue.gif

See there is basically two type of trades...

1. Easy trades...
2. Difficult trades....

The goal in stock market life, is to make money.
That's what's important...
No one will give a hoot to look into the exact details in your trade...
that is.. no one will look into your trading history... and say...
walauehhh.....dude... that trade in ABDS was difficult yo...
many lost money...
but you made money.....  notworthy.gif

no one cares.... tongue.gif

what's most important is the bottom line...
ie... ah biang ah... you sibeh geng la...
you made so much money one....

whistling.gif
for easy trade....
SKPet should have gone up...
held the gain...
and probably see it retest perhaps the 250 region....

that should have been the expectation...

but for SKPet it was not....
all it took to shake the trade...
was for Yellen to yell out.....
the possibility of the Dec hike....
and this send the USD higher...
and the oil prices lower....
which then goncang the hell out of SKPet momentum.....

if one to be the Texas Fried chicken trader...
one could have easily exited at least 224 yesterday....
but if one did not...
one would stuck....
wondering....

but for me...
it's just normal....
it's just a difficult trade......
*
Thanks Boon for your opinion.

I agree a lot of people only keen to know how much $$$ u made n the return %. The rest can keep to own self. But I like to know how n why they did the trade. U can learn from other people's strategies provided they were honest to u.

Difficult trade or not, I think one shud have considered the price fluctuating and doing a whipsaw to flush out jittery people. Since I have set up my target price earlier, I'm gonna stick with it unless there r very clear signals showing otherwise. So I won't simply take profit or cut loss unnecessarily.

We still have 1 month to go before aunty yellen does something, so anything still can happen to Skpet share price.
TC-Titan
post Nov 6 2015, 01:35 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Nov 6 2015, 09:29 AM)
buy apa...time to consider selling lar doh.gif
*
There's a FA guru that says Padini is worth close to 2.50.
But I believe this is in the long run. Give this stock to your future kiddos la while u buy few buckets of beer from the dividends when they increase the payout over time.
TC-Titan
post Nov 9 2015, 12:25 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Nov 9 2015, 11:46 AM)
Alu.min.ium ph34r.gif

I compare against its peers in Bursa, yeah basically all of them are highly geared, and net margin in low single-digit. sweat.gif
*
LOLz ah pinky just say its Pmetal. Dun shy shy k tongue.gif
R u sure the peers are all highly geared....
The prospects are different. One being interested by everyone, the rest not much interest or even news about them.
So gotta see what's your "poison" lo.
TC-Titan
post Nov 9 2015, 01:55 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Nov 9 2015, 12:30 PM)
aiyo tongue.gif

Its closest peer in market cap, LB Alum, also quite highly geared (compare to other stocks under my radar), but only at 20%+ vs Press punya 100%

but Press commands better margins

poison? apa tu? :
*
U need to see which part of the supply chain those companies are... hence the reason for the margin difference.
Pmetal focuses more on upstream. for extrusions quite minimal.

Next, to see which which gives u the highest and fastest probability for capital appreciation and decent dividend yield. As I said, only Pmetal is in the limelight. But does that mean the others are bad?

There is a difference in mgmt style. Pmetal is VERY aggressive and upper mgmt don't mind losing sleep being geared 100% above (better pray no more api ... ). LB and gang are prudent, conservative and are still growing their business at a moderate pace.

U need to be mindful of:
a. USD rate for imports and exports
b. LME price + premium to their cost
c. Growth for construction in MY and overseas
d. Impact of China's supplies versus the world
e. Impact of bigger companies like ALCOA, GLENCORE versus other aluminium companies
f. Competitive advantage (ps: im sure u can figure Pmetal's key advantage versus the rest).

But as Unker Boon, like to say.... keep it simple~ so lai tembak darts on the stock now and learn to trade hahaha~! biggrin.gif

PSS: I don't have Pmetal shares but have been monitoring and planning to buy like 4everrrrr~ doh.gif


TC-Titan
post Nov 9 2015, 02:00 PM

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QUOTE(TakoC @ Nov 9 2015, 01:13 PM)
Noticed a stock of late that is creeping up quietly. PUC.
*
Unker Bone highlighted this stock earlier d (last month i think).

But I personally know one guy who slowly bought and accumulated till become top 30 shareholder.
He seems very convinced can huat and doesn't mind holding for multi-baggers...

PS: I didn't buy PUC. So do your own DD before trading ya.
TC-Titan
post Nov 9 2015, 02:29 PM

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QUOTE(TakoC @ Nov 9 2015, 10:53 AM)
Recently they having this 4 days sales right?

So how would you interpret this situation without looking at the company financial at all?

Inventory build up cannot sell, so now want clear stock by selling cheap? So sales not good?
*
Unker Teh has given quite good explanation d. I was expecting Unker Pinky to tambah batu api somemore hahaha brows.gif

For clothing/fashion line, their margins are usually very good.
So whatever discount/clearance/firesale etc, they will still earn some margin for sure.
So I rather a business sell off most of their stocks with minimal margins instead making impairments and writing them off at a loss.

If you quantify the 3 groups of inventory losses, stocks written down to NRV, stocks W/O: overall i think the figure is still small and manageable.
U should compare this figures versus those recognised in their COS and current inventory balance in BS, so the % impact is still negligible and acceptable for their line of business. All retailers and most businesses incur similar expenses but lower.

Padini has been in the biz for quite a while, so I'm sure they know what they are doing despite facing massive competition all around. As Unker Pinky says it well enuf: their earnings are resilient. And this would eventually result in consistent and higher dividends in the end.

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