abg gark, would low coal price still contribute to TNB bottom line? coz I think they now have imbalance cost passthru program that pass back the cost variances to the customers

promotion: hevea got mini sales!

ya sibeh huat. tmr try to board the ship!

the one with most potential already cepat jalan liao. at least this one baru jalan can try curi ayam

This post has been edited by cooldownguy86: Sep 14 2015, 08:34 PM

agree, but if it can achieve 9 cents per quarter then based on PE10 the fair value is RM3.60. I think still got 20% upside, and might be a good bet given that:

1. The next Q is historically their strongest Q
2. They have taken steps to mitigate the fire
3. Weakening of MYR against USD and VND

abg boon harbour RM2.70 boleh ka?

Estimation based on current FY
Shipping - 8m * 1.2 = 9.6m
Logistics - 49m *1.2 = 59m
Engineering - 0 (Assuming no contribution)
Property - 2.5m (Ignore land gain)
Net Profit = 71.1m * 0.65 = 46m = 25cents

Fair value = 25 * PE10 = RM2.50

Estimation based on Latest Q
Shipping - 2m
Logistics - 17m
Engineering - 1m (ignore)
Property - 4m Land Gain (ignore)
Net Profit = 19m * 0.65 = 12.35m = 6.8cents per Q

Fair value = 6.8 per Q * 4 * PE10 = RM2.70

haha must go batam open account? maybe uncle gark can spin off an indo segment here

management expects 2.5b revenue this year (so abt 11.7 cents per Q) but i think 13.5 cents per Q (11.7 * 1.15) should be reasonable given the favourable forex. Fair value should be 13.5 * 4 * PE 18 = RM 9.70. still got upside but not alot of bags la haha. if got bonus issue then lagi syiok. i was hoping to buy at SMA50 (RM6.90), but since next Q results will be out in second week of Oct, i think no chance to kutip that low.

This post has been edited by cooldownguy86: Sep 21 2015, 11:46 PM

if price drop go back to SMA20/30 (RM1.02-1.08) then cantik liao. kasi masuk traktor

abg boon abg gark. just wondering what is your current cash ratio and is there a min ratio that u practice?

wah so conservative ah. mine 50% also I think conservative liao. but agree not many good and cheap stock in klse now

aunty will tell u they save on food so that they can buy few more of your shares ma haha.

haish ya still waiting to load my trolley haha. wait till neck long

macro view abit uncertain leh. dunno when moody will downgrade msia to junk so dun dare to sapu.

Haha was briefly looking at it ystrday. Noticed a decline last q but have not really figured out why. Need to figure out what is the composition of their mills and plantation segments also

Observation
1. Plantation business contribution to bottom line is almost negligible
2. Currently trading at PE12, which i think is above fair PE based on history
3. Current orderbook amount is close to FY14 total revenue

Pros
1. USD effect - 40% of orderbook is in USD. 2014AR mentioned that 5% increase in USD will increase profit by 2mil

Cons
1. SPV orders decreasing. In fact SPV decrease is offsetting increase in revenue for mills.
2. No more tax incentive. Predicted to be renewed by end FY15.

Questions
1. How does CPO prices affect their revenue for mills?

Overall I think there isn't a strong catalyst for CBIP haha. First res might be better hehe, but flying already. no time to study and buy

This post has been edited by cooldownguy86: Oct 1 2015, 10:48 PM

Thanks abg gark. seems like abg boon de wood still hotter haha.

Not sure how does yield affects profit, but let me try First Res:

Neutral
El Nino - apparently strongest since 97-98 - drives CPO prices but reduces production

Pros
10% yearly production growth
Mostly young plantations which will likely recover from El Nino faster
Stronger CPO prices both due to El Nino and weak ringgit
Weaker IDR. Based on AR, every 10% increase in USD/IDR increase PBT by 7mil

Fair Value
1. Since net profit mainly contributed by CPO so ignore FFB and refinery
2. 1Q & 2Q sales 100m, cost 70m, profit 30m per Q
3. Historically 2H production is about 1.4 of 1H - 140m, cost 98m, profit 42m per Q
4. CPO price increased from RM2k to RM2.4k per ton - 20% increase which will directly increase 4Q sales by 20%
5. Assume CPO prices remains at RM2.4k throughout end of the year. Offsetting further increase in CPO prices with lower 4Q production due to El NiNo

So FY15 profit estimate = 1H Profit + Q3 Profit * 1.4 + (Q4 sales * CPO increase - Q4 Cost) * 1.4
= 30 + 30 + 30 * 1.4 + (100*1.2 - 70)*1.4 = 172m
i.e. EPS USD 11.3cents or SGD 15.8cents. Assuming PE11, fair value is SGD $1.70

FY16 profit estimate = (FY15 estimated sales * CPO increase - FY15 Estimated Cost) * Growth
= (480 * 1.2 - 336) * 1.1 = 264m i.e. EPS SGD 24cents. Assuming PE11, fair value is SGD $2.60 (CPO at 2.4k)
= (480 * 1.1 - 336) * 1.1 = 211m i.e. EPS SGD 19.5cents. Assuming PE11, fair value is SGD $2.15 (CPO at 2.2k)

Current price already $1.70. So questions is whether CPO price can average at RM2.4k entire FY16?

This post has been edited by cooldownguy86: Oct 3 2015, 09:54 PM

Haha thanks abg gark. I go correct my calculations tmr. Btw Kenanga say 2.2-2.4k for 2016 shld be possible. Hehe now I'm more convinced at this moi is really indeed a moi haha

Haha. Seems like their trees will mature in Fy17 18. Maybe can revisit by then

Next q report still got 2 months haha. I dun dare play breakout. Prefer buy on weakness. But aiya forgot collect topglov. Nx week likely no chance liao.

This post has been edited by cooldownguy86: Oct 2 2015, 07:08 PM