With US average PE at 20.5 and US$ at multi year high.. I was thinking that the US market has reached saturation.. so might wanna dispose of all my SPY ETFs.. which I have collected from the past 7 years

Anyone wanna look into chart and tell me? 

Thanks abg gark. seems like abg boon de wood still hotter haha.

Not sure how does yield affects profit, but let me try First Res:

Neutral
El Nino - apparently strongest since 97-98 - drives CPO prices but reduces production

Pros
10% yearly production growth
Mostly young plantations which will likely recover from El Nino faster
Stronger CPO prices both due to El Nino and weak ringgit
Weaker IDR. Based on AR, every 10% increase in USD/IDR increase PBT by 7mil

Fair Value
1. Since net profit mainly contributed by CPO so ignore FFB and refinery
2. 1Q & 2Q sales 100m, cost 70m, profit 30m per Q
3. Historically 2H production is about 1.4 of 1H - 140m, cost 98m, profit 42m per Q
4. CPO price increased from RM2k to RM2.4k per ton - 20% increase which will directly increase 4Q sales by 20%
5. Assume CPO prices remains at RM2.4k throughout end of the year. Offsetting further increase in CPO prices with lower 4Q production due to El NiNo

So FY15 profit estimate = 1H Profit + Q3 Profit * 1.4 + (Q4 sales * CPO increase - Q4 Cost) * 1.4
= 30 + 30 + 30 * 1.4 + (100*1.2 - 70)*1.4 = 172m
i.e. EPS USD 11.3cents or SGD 15.8cents. Assuming PE11, fair value is SGD $1.70?

FY16 profit estimate = (FY15 estimated sales * CPO increase - FY15 Estimated Cost) * Growth
= (480 * 1.2 - 336) * 1.1  = 264m  i.e. EPS SGD 24cents. Assuming PE11, fair value is SGD $2.60 (CPO at 2.4k)
= (480 * 1.1 - 336) * 1.1  = 211m  i.e. EPS SGD 19.5cents. Assuming PE11, fair value is SGD $2.15 (CPO at 2.2k)

Current price already $1.70. So questions is whether CPO price can average at RM2.4k entire FY16?

1. The OSV and T&I income is going to get worse .. so expect to record more losses in rest of 2015 due to less OnG contracts. More and more vessles are going to be cold and warm stacked.

2. The existing FPSO is based on long term contract, so the payment is secure. If any company cancels the contract they have to pay up 100%. Only problem will be the company going into receivership. Just like Afren Nigeria for FPSO Perkasa, the company is in financial trouble, but the well and FPSO is up for auction, new taker will continue the contract. Based on Armada, they payment from Afren is still current. 

3. 3 new projects will bring in future growth, they are secured at very good rates during price of oil at $100. There might be a long time before they get another one. 

4. FV is highly dependent on OSV and T&I recovering means we need good oil price, we should see substantial vessel utilization rate (current 53%) increase significantly If oil is over $60 per barrel. I would say RM 1 is fair value for $50 oil and RM 1.30 for $60 oil.. and so on.. 

That is subject to a LOT of speculation... If SA just reduce 10% of their production tomorrow.. you may get the $60 oil immediately.. 

Good article for global oil production and consumption.. contrary to everyones thoughts, global oil consumption has not reduced significantly, it is still growing at a healthy rate, it is just that SA is pumping at records levels to depress the oil price.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3547996-oi...e-are-we-headed

Ghawar field, SA largest production field is currently under secondary recovery, and if they continue to pump at record rates by opening the choke at full, they risk damaging the oil well forever and irreversible. There are indications there are water cuts already approaching near maximum in their production and these cuts if not reduce will destroy the field. It is estimated that at most SA can maintain their high production for only 1 year more, before they have to close the choke. Water cuts can be reduce if the fields are put to 'rest' or minimum production.

Counter argument is that a lot of US fields are now rated as DUC wells (Drilled and uncompleted wells - drilled during good times) which can raise production to flood the market if the price of oil is good. It is estimated only need 1-2 months to bring these DUC up to production.

Quiet? Lol actually looking for stocks which has not appreciated .. yet.  In this case an 'OnG' stock which has been beaten to the ground despite it is not really dependent on oil price. 

Looking at a gas pipeline company which have high re-curing income ..with locked in contract 10Y or more. Last 2Q profit increased 20% YoY and with 2 more pipeline completing in 3Q and 4Q, expect the earnings will be up by 60% in 2016.

Currently sells at 7x PE only..PBV 0.9,  looks good eh? Company earned $5.3 million in 1H15 on $100 million sales.. and the current market cap is just $57 million 

psst.

well Top Glove posts its profits results today....

Lets observe its performance and the market reaction the next couple of days....

*cough*
How many lory load you got? 

Errr..... it's way above my expection..... ( post #1205...

I guessed eps should be more than 11....
maybe 13 or even 14 sen....
but today's reported profits was more than 16 sen per share.....

wow!
sembilan setengah?
Errr....
you say leh?
** I liking what I see....
if other exporting companies....
perform lebih kurang this standard....
then.....
I think....
you need to buy 40 foot containers laaaa.......
to bring home your winnings.... 
** kossan... happy happy up also.... 

You simply whack me upside down.......

Like this call tipsy meh?

The RM weakness trend....
This was one big easy trend to spot,yes?

With Top Glove outperforming....
those other stocks.......
hehe... shouldn't they follow the trend?

Anyway, you got to be really careful of tipsy...

What ? What  ? What ?
What on earth is that?

LOL!!!!!!
Oh yeah... looks like many if finding a new friend in the May Kim.

   

Ini kali..... only.......?   
How many lory SAM you got la?

errr.... this is one of the things I do not know....
like I said...before...
we cannot know everything one....
there will be many things we won't know ...

Anyone using OSK platform?i got noob question..how did u guy transfer money?online or goes to RHB investment? sorry for noob question.

No wonder ayam lari lor....

Errr....

Heheeeeeeeeehee ......time to goreng sikit...: P

So say...
If you have the special powers...
To turn back time...
To allow you to buy....
Would you buy at ....say 3.05?