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 Traders Kopitiam! V8

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SUSPink Spider
post Jun 22 2015, 09:50 AM

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QUOTE(tehoice @ Jun 22 2015, 09:48 AM)
this century like really very gooding yo........

but now above your 90c benchmark, can enter ka?  rclxms.gif
*
check out its PE and divvy yield baru cakap rolleyes.gif
tehoice
post Jun 22 2015, 10:10 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jun 22 2015, 09:50 AM)
check out its PE and divvy yield baru cakap rolleyes.gif
*
PE about 10x, div yield also about 9-10%?

am i right?
SUSPink Spider
post Jun 22 2015, 10:13 AM

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QUOTE(tehoice @ Jun 22 2015, 10:10 AM)
PE about 10x, div yield also about 9-10%?

am i right?
*
flex.gif

Annualised topline growth about 4-5%

Significant FMCG exposure...resilient
Assembly of electronic goods...
And leasing out of warehousing...

Fly too fast too soon...I tak sempat buy more doh.gif

This post has been edited by Pink Spider: Jun 22 2015, 10:14 AM
tehoice
post Jun 22 2015, 11:19 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jun 22 2015, 10:13 AM)
flex.gif

Annualised topline growth about 4-5%

Significant FMCG exposure...resilient
Assembly of electronic goods...
And leasing out of warehousing...

Fly too fast too soon...I tak sempat buy more doh.gif
*
if the prospect is so good... can buy at slightly higher price also, right?
SUSPink Spider
post Jun 22 2015, 11:26 AM

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QUOTE(tehoice @ Jun 22 2015, 11:19 AM)
if the prospect is so good... can buy at slightly higher price also, right?
*
PE looks decent

Divvy-wise, even if they cut payout to reduce to around 5% divvy yield, still nice ma biggrin.gif

So many negative news abound, I wait for big bad news to crash stocks then buy cheaper ma blush.gif

This post has been edited by Pink Spider: Jun 22 2015, 11:27 AM
tehoice
post Jun 22 2015, 11:37 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jun 22 2015, 11:26 AM)
PE looks decent

Divvy-wise, even if they cut payout to reduce to around 5% divvy yield, still nice ma biggrin.gif

So many negative news abound, I wait for big bad news to crash stocks then buy cheaper ma blush.gif
*
isn't last week a good time to buy? brows.gif
SUSPink Spider
post Jun 22 2015, 11:40 AM

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QUOTE(tehoice @ Jun 22 2015, 11:37 AM)
isn't last week a good time to buy?  brows.gif
*
dun mention liao...82 sen lowest nia cry.gif
zDarkForceSz
post Jun 22 2015, 12:56 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jun 22 2015, 11:40 AM)
dun mention liao...82 sen lowest nia cry.gif
*
Miss boat tongue.gif
SUSPink Spider
post Jun 22 2015, 01:18 PM

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QUOTE(zDarkForceSz @ Jun 22 2015, 12:56 PM)
Miss boat tongue.gif
*
well, miss boat better than sank boat laugh.gif
SUSPink Spider
post Jun 22 2015, 01:27 PM

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Much-promoted trading stock MASTEEL in accounting mess:

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/m...fy14-financials
KVReninem
post Jun 22 2015, 02:56 PM

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SAM macam hot cake
Boon3
post Jun 22 2015, 05:08 PM

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QUOTE(tehoice @ Jun 22 2015, 10:10 AM)
PE about 10x, div yield also about 9-10%?

am i right?
*
average company selling at .... slightly below average price only.

*if* the main idea is to trade on the best stocks at the best prices... then this one falls short.

big *if* hor....
so many people have so many different ideas on what's good and what's not.... and also what constitutes a good trade/a smart trade/a fair trade/etc etc etc...

** the lower oil prices 'should' help for the time being but for how long would oil prices stay low?

** lower ringgit represents a boom for exporters which means business from exporting companies should be decent

** however, the lower ringgit, has a negative side.... costs of parts used by its logistics division should most likely be higher....

** plus.. with the utter powder puff power of the ringgit, most importers are cautious, they can't be gung ho as last year since the current forex difference would most likely cause imported products to be much costlier.....
the importers are most likely witnessing pullback in consumer spending due to the gst/etc.....

*** last year results were made to look higher due to disposal of property......

*** this year, the purchased a huge plot of land for warehousing uses... and this has caused a huge dent in their balance sheet....


all said.... I rate it an average stock....... icon_rolleyes.gif
tehoice
post Jun 22 2015, 06:34 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 22 2015, 05:08 PM)
average company selling at .... slightly below average price only.

*if* the main idea is to trade on the best stocks at the best prices... then this one falls short.

big *if* hor....
so many people have so many different ideas on what's good and what's not.... and also what constitutes a good trade/a smart trade/a fair trade/etc etc etc...

** the lower oil prices 'should' help for the time being but for how long would oil prices stay low?

** lower ringgit represents a boom for exporters which means business from exporting companies should be decent

** however, the lower ringgit, has a negative side.... costs of parts used by its logistics division should most likely be higher....

** plus.. with the utter powder puff power of the ringgit, most importers are cautious, they can't be gung ho as last year since the current forex difference would most likely cause imported products to be much costlier.....
the importers are most likely witnessing pullback in consumer spending due to the gst/etc.....

*** last year results were made to look higher due to disposal of property......

*** this year, the purchased a huge plot of land for warehousing uses... and this has caused a huge dent in their balance sheet....
all said.... I rate it an average stock.......  icon_rolleyes.gif
*
ya, agreed with what you have written. but on the bolded.

few years later, do a re-valuation and beef up your balance sheet again. macam 1mdb? tongue.gif
Boon3
post Jun 22 2015, 07:21 PM

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QUOTE(tehoice @ Jun 22 2015, 06:34 PM)
ya, agreed with what you have written. but on the bolded.

few years later, do a re-valuation and beef up your balance sheet again. macam 1mdb?  tongue.gif
*
rolleyes.gif

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

Boon3
post Jun 23 2015, 08:45 AM

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QUOTE(KVReninem @ Jun 22 2015, 02:56 PM)
SAM macam hot cake
*
Missed your posting... tongue.gif


SAM announced its ex-dates for its dividends (improved + there's a special divy)

plus if you add in its good profits lately....

surely the cake had to be hot. laugh.gif laugh.gif
Boon3
post Jun 23 2015, 06:59 PM

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Talk own self again.... rclxm9.gif

laugh.gif

Never think like an investor when you are trading.....

oops.... I think the opposite holds true also...

ie never think like a trader when you are an investor....

this is for those who loves chasing falling stocks...

example?

AirAsia.

Well? AirAsia mah...

many are WRONGLY thought to buy/invest based on what they see... tongue.gif
for example...
they go airport...
they see...
so many fei kei...
all also say....
can fly...
all red color...
so many AirAsia...
business must be good....
how can it not be good?
when so many are flying AirAsia?

so when they see it fall...
they say...
bargain...
sifu from mountain...
says so one...

I saw GMT video.... have you?

https://vimeo.com/131236783

to check what the Mat Salleh talk about the related party profits....inflating profits....

I also sibuk myself mah...
don't pick lose...
see myself...

http://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/dfgs88...--591047246.pdf

user posted image

I think it's the profits stated under 'Share of results of associates - see notes 23' ..... 33.1 million....

"Thai AirAsia achieved an operating profit of THB1,195.0 million in 1Q15, compared to an
operating profit of THB346.6 million in 1Q14. Thai AirAsia achieved a net profit of
THB922.8 million in 1Q15, compared to a net profit of THB244.7 million in 1Q14.
AirAsia Berhad has equity accounted RM37.1 million in 1Q15, as reflected in the AirAsia
Berhad income statement"

what Mat saying....
AirAsia Thai losses...
went to losses heaven lor....

"The AirAsia Berhad share of the net loss in 1Q15 amounted to RM73.5 million. However,
as the Group’s interest in Indonesia AirAsia has been reduced to zero any profits will only
be recognized when a total of RM407.9 million of unrecognized losses have been reversed."

and same with Philipines.... went to losses heaven also... tongue.gif

"AirAsia Philippines recorded a net loss of RM25.7 million (quarter ended 31 March 2014:
net loss of RM24.6 million) in the quarter under review out of which RMNil million is
equity accounted in the AirAsia Berhad income statement. As the Group’s interest in
AirAsia Philippines has been reduced to zero, in accordance with MFRS128, any profits
will only be recognized when a total of RM112.8 million of unrecognized losses have been
reversed."

so these losses not accounted....
dunno go where...
so profits look higher than it should be.... tongue.gif

ps: clearly I am not an accountant.... so I only see laaa....
ps: I do not think accountant is a prerequisite to be a trader la..... or am I WRONG here? tongue.gif

ok... even if all the above is acceptable...
I see this...

user posted image

I can see so many issues....
like sales revenue is down...
most costs are up.... (compared to same quarter last year laa.... )

anyway.... no 11. shows a disposal gain.... 62 million.
and then... the big disposal gain of AirAsia Expedia... which contributed 320 million...

all these one of gains.... yes? sweat.gif

if AirAsia did not sell AirAsia Expedia...
would AirAsia even be making money for the quarter?

and remember how much losses it recorded the previous quarter?

THIS i think is the real problem....

clearly money... is a REAL issue...
it's not a joke when you have 1.6 billion cash but carry a loan of 13.1 BILLION...

and a commitment to take delivery of 81 billion worth of fei kei.


this is clearly not sustainable...


CLEARLY BILLION DOLLAR DEBTs is NOT a sports for Malaysia companies..................

yeah..... do see the GMT video.... see it over and over again...

ps: what is AirAsia NTAB?
Answer? 1.64

trick question:
with AirAsia main assets being fei kei's....
assets which are depreciating...
and with AirAsia 's debts exploding at dunno what rate.....
why on earth should AirAsia even trade higher than its NTAB?

yes? no? yes? no?

trick question:
what is AirAsia market capital at 1.64?
ie... in layman's term...if AirAsia sells all its shares at a price of 1.64, how much is AirAsia worth?
Answer: 4.564 billion!!!

now I ask myself...
given AirAsia's balance sheet issues....
it's profitability...
it's BILLION dollar currency hedges.....
should AirAsia be worth 4.564 billion?

ps: would you pay 4.564 billion ringgit to own a company which has 13.1 billion in debts?

something long isn't it?

ps: I wonder Mat GMT got see latest profit report from AirAsia or not?



user posted image


spring onion
post Jun 23 2015, 11:33 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 23 2015, 06:59 PM)
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «
haoyo boon... you start to grow old liao.... so ngam cham de nowadays biggrin.gif

btw, market looks too good to be true... it's about time where correction or a big tsunami will come
Boon3
post Jun 23 2015, 11:48 PM

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QUOTE(spring onion @ Jun 23 2015, 11:33 PM)
haoyo boon... you start to grow old liao.... so ngam cham de nowadays biggrin.gif

btw, market looks too good to be true... it's about time where correction or a big tsunami will come
*
Why?
Another billion dollar episode!!!

You happy meh to see meh?



PS: Even if I diam you think this problem would not explode?



This post has been edited by Boon3: Jun 23 2015, 11:51 PM
Boon3
post Jun 24 2015, 08:55 AM

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tongue.gif

Stock hitting 52 weeks highs....
when they hit.....
would you bet that the stock would gostan soon?

or would you think that the chances are the stock could hit several more highs?

hey... aren't there stocks that seem to be able to hit highs years and years?

no? yes? no? yes?


So how come.....
when a stock hit a 52 weeks low...
how come want to start bargain higher?

won't the same hold true as stocks hitting highs?
ie won't the chances be high that the stock could hit several more lows?


or are we suckered into the fallacy of the mountain sifu that what falls must equals to golden opportunity?

no? yes? no? yes?


yes... some fallen stocks are indeed an opportunity.... but many aren't.
know the difference.....


it's like a stock breaking out of a trading range....
when it breaks out higher.....
wouldn't the chances be more that the stock could continue higher?

so why doesn't the reverse hold true?
when a stock breaks lower....
wouldn't the chances be more that the stock could trade lower?

why rush chasing a falling stock?




lol...

one of the many mysteries in the stock market.....
Le Don
post Jun 24 2015, 09:46 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jun 24 2015, 08:55 AM)
tongue.gif

Stock hitting 52 weeks highs....
when they hit.....
would you bet that the stock would gostan soon?

or would you think that the chances are the stock could hit several more highs?

hey... aren't there stocks that seem to be able to hit highs years and years?

no? yes? no? yes?
So how come.....
when a stock hit a 52 weeks low...
how come want to start bargain higher?

won't the same hold true as stocks hitting highs?
ie won't the chances be high that the stock could hit several more lows?
or are we suckered into the fallacy of the mountain sifu that what falls must equals to golden opportunity?

no? yes? no? yes?
yes... some fallen stocks are indeed an opportunity.... but many aren't.
know the difference.....
it's like a stock breaking out of a trading range....
when it breaks out higher.....
wouldn't the chances be more that the stock could continue higher?

so why doesn't the reverse hold true?
when a stock breaks lower....
wouldn't the chances be more that the stock could trade lower?

why rush chasing a falling stock?
lol...

one of the many mysteries in the stock market.....
*
I think many people follow the Warren Buffet's investing method and became greedy when everyone is fearfull

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