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 Traders Kopitiam! V7

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Boon3
post Apr 25 2015, 10:27 PM

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QUOTE(max_cavalera @ Apr 25 2015, 08:27 PM)
Yup what u said already priced in the recent correction. Already drop around 8% from 1.15.

My analysis from technical point of view:

Price drop in anticipation of qtrly report is a good sign... If watch the graph during previous report, no matter whether the result is on target or miss target the price will bounce back strongly...

If u notice the last 1 year graph there is 2 ocassion on which the descending triangle pattern was formed and the price dipped around -5% and -10% shortly after...

However after the correction shakes off all weaker hand scalpers, the price breakout up back 20% and 40% to newer high record.

So far the price movement mirror this past behavior...

But guys pls dont blame me if end of next week price fail to shoot back up...
*
laugh.gif

Please la....
I not so childish to play blame game nonsense. tongue.gif

Thanks for this dialogue.

Just a comment.

Price drop in anticipation of profit report?

Well... assuming market insiders rule...
ie. they ( the insiders) know.....
then the current past 3 days if trading....
with higher volume too....
'suggests' they either know or anticipate lower profits...

of course...
these insiders could always be wrong...
but if put into consideration....
the past 2 quartets, where Homer's profits came in below expectations...
then.......
perhaps.............................


max_cavalera
post Apr 25 2015, 11:00 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 25 2015, 11:27 PM)
laugh.gif

Please la....
I not so childish to play blame game nonsense. tongue.gif

Thanks for this dialogue.

Just a comment.

Price drop in anticipation of profit report?

Well... assuming market insiders rule...
ie. they ( the insiders) know.....
then the current past 3 days if trading....
with higher volume too....
'suggests' they either know or anticipate lower profits...

of course...
these insiders could always be wrong...
but if put into consideration....
the past 2 quartets, where Homer's profits came in below expectations...
then.......
perhaps.............................
*
Lets see how the price unfold next week... I enter some earlier n found this counter impossible to break resistance lvl as thr are thousand of lots being queued for sell at resistance line and above...

The number far exceed buyers....at the same time bargain hunters keep queue at support lvl of 1.14 by the thousands too....

My opinion is in order for this counter to breakout...it needs a knee jerk correction to shake off most of this scalpers away....so the support level of 1.14 must be broken first before we can see a breakout...

And the support lvl did break last wednesday as per my expectation...

Let see the deama unfolds next week biggrin.gif

Boon3
post Apr 26 2015, 07:47 AM

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QUOTE(max_cavalera @ Apr 25 2015, 11:00 PM)
Lets see how the price unfold next week... I enter some earlier n found this counter impossible to break resistance lvl as thr are thousand of lots being queued for sell at resistance line and above...

The number far exceed buyers....at the same time bargain hunters keep queue at support lvl of 1.14 by the thousands  too....

My opinion is in order for this counter to breakout...it needs a knee jerk correction to shake off most of this scalpers away....so the support level of 1.14 must be broken first before we can see a breakout...

And the support lvl did break last wednesday as per my expectation...

Let see the deama unfolds next week biggrin.gif
*
Try check the trading data for Feb this year.

Look how the stock traded before the quarterlies was announced.

Then look at what the stock did at the day of the announcement.



Boon3
post Apr 26 2015, 09:38 AM

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QUOTE(kueyteowlou @ Apr 25 2015, 10:23 PM)
boring ngm boring ah u ... everyday also same stock.... any other kangtao bo boon gor? lol
*
laugh.gif

So what stock you wanna talk?

tongue.gif
max_cavalera
post Apr 26 2015, 10:10 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 26 2015, 08:47 AM)
Try check the trading data for Feb this year.

Look how the stock traded before the quarterlies was announced.

Then look at what the stock did at the day of the announcement.
*
Tht quarter the perf was such a dissapoinment. But it doesnt matter as its already priced in even before announcement was made as evident by the -13% dip before announcement. Once u entered during this period look at how much u would made after a month, whooping 22% gain...
Even if u entered before correction u still make a 6% gain after a month of the announcement made.

My point is at current situation market already expect the worst possible performance, as evident with the -8% correction, even if it did perform badly come nextwednesday/tuesday, price are gonna still moved upwards....


kueyteowlou
post Apr 26 2015, 10:23 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 26 2015, 09:38 AM)
laugh.gif

So what stock you wanna talk?

tongue.gif
*
i have a few in my mind ... but fundamental wise sure sad sad 1 wor ....

i have a good fundamental stocks.. because i get to know a amoi staying over that area...

ENGTEX icon_rolleyes.gif
Boon3
post Apr 26 2015, 10:49 AM

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QUOTE(max_cavalera @ Apr 26 2015, 10:10 AM)
Tht quarter the perf was such a dissapoinment. But it doesnt matter as its already priced in even before announcement was made as evident by the -13% dip before announcement. Once u entered during this period look at how much u would made after a month, whooping 22% gain...
Even if u entered before correction u still make a 6% gain after a month of the announcement made.

My point is at current situation market already expect the worst possible performance, as evident with the -8% correction, even if it did perform badly come nextwednesday/tuesday, price are gonna still moved upwards....
*
Eh?

Are we looking at the same data?

Homer started the year at 86 sen.

Stock ran all the way up on the back of new shareholders changes + the fact it was heavily recommended on some so-called investment forums+blogs+facebook etc (lol .. the power of promotings!) + not forgetting the announcement of the EXACTl ex-date of the 3.1 sen dividend (another bafffler .... lol....)

Stock was bubbly all the way till the day it made the announcement on 29th Jan (sorry not Feb .. brains not functioning well atm)

stock did a dramatic u-turn on 29th Jan midday.
I still recall...
lol...
how the buy bids disappeared...... siddenly.
stock retraced back to 96/97 region....

for me?
it appeared the market got it all wrong...
it ANTICIPATED profit growth (on the back of a very strong USD which should boost profit margins)....

profits disappointed...
but most important the company said the higher USD did damage to its material cost...
as high USD made their leather import (which used for their upholstery) more expensive....
that was a .......... rolleyes.gif
unexpected....

so company stock FELL due to poor profits...
and those who chased up (in ANTICIPATION of good profits) got their hands burnt.....

now come the interesting part....
after that correction....
stock did not fall anymore....
it stabilized at the 96/97 region...

why?

cos... imo.... Homer lost its profit growth...
but....
despite that...
Homer was cash flush...
and based on dividend yields...
at around 96/97....
the yields was still very much interesting.....

then for me....
in trading......
if the stock doesn't want to go down anymore...
it should probably go back up again....
lol.... and rallied again... it did. biggrin.gif

now?
different imo...
stock WAS in a tight trading range...

(I have no expertise in such trading...
cannot find any godam edge with such trading...
it's always a 50-50 game...
stock could always break down as much as it could break up)

AND....
the past few days...
stock broke DOWN ....
on the back of a higher than average trading volume...

for me....
atm.....
this signals weakness....
the market does not ANTICIPATE any good news....

which brings the question for me...
does the insider know?
does the insider already know poorer results AGAIN from Homer?

no matter what....
I cannot get comfy with such trades....
I have no edge...

which means....
sitting on the corner ...
and playing with that lonely spider...
is the best option for me....
for there is no need for me to get every stock right at all times...

biggrin.gif
Boon3
post Apr 26 2015, 10:50 AM

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QUOTE(kueyteowlou @ Apr 26 2015, 10:23 AM)
i have a few in my mind ... but fundamental wise sure sad sad 1 wor ....

i have a good fundamental stocks.. because i get to know a amoi staying over that area...

ENGTEX  icon_rolleyes.gif
*
waaaaa...... ENGTEX ah?
not bad wor....

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

Boon3
post Apr 26 2015, 10:59 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 26 2015, 10:49 AM)


(I have no expertise in such trading...
cannot find any godam edge with such trading...
it's always a 50-50 game...
stock could always break down as much as it could break up)

ps/

if it breaks out of the range.....
ie break UP ....
I obviously might consider chasing the stock up....

which brings me the issue...
since it now breaks down ...
instead of breaking up....
why should I chase the stock down?


kueyteowlou
post Apr 26 2015, 11:04 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 26 2015, 10:50 AM)
waaaaa...... ENGTEX ah?
not bad wor....

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

*
biggrin.gif i will polish this gem into beautiful beautiful .... see how it goes....
max_cavalera
post Apr 26 2015, 11:10 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 26 2015, 11:59 AM)
ps/

if it breaks out of the range.....
ie break UP ....
I obviously might consider chasing the stock up....

which brings me the issue...
since it now breaks down ...
instead of breaking up....
why should I chase the stock down?
*
Same data but different methodolgy and analogy perspective. Anyway ur point noted.

This counter always seem to dissapoint during its qtr performance report
Boon3
post Apr 26 2015, 11:22 AM

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QUOTE(max_cavalera @ Apr 26 2015, 11:10 AM)
Same data but different methodolgy and analogy perspective. Anyway ur point noted.

This counter always seem to dissapoint during its qtr performance report
*
No problems...
I am not an active trader...
Hence my preferences and risks tolerance would vary greatly.....


Boon3
post Apr 26 2015, 11:24 AM

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QUOTE(kueyteowlou @ Apr 26 2015, 11:04 AM)
biggrin.gif i will polish this gem into beautiful beautiful .... see how it goes....
*
doh.gif

Polish ?

New profession mehhhhhhh?

tongue.gif


kueyteowlou
post Apr 26 2015, 11:27 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 26 2015, 11:24 AM)
doh.gif

Polish ?

New profession mehhhhhhh?

tongue.gif
*
shoes polishing is very good profession in the world .... wub.gif

if you look at the report on Engtex.. 71m per year... seems not bad...

dividend wise .... fantastic ....
Boon3
post Apr 26 2015, 04:17 PM

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QUOTE(spring onion @ Apr 25 2015, 11:30 AM)
good day boon, any stocks to talk 3 talk 4 lately? how about FIAMMA HOLDINGS BHD 6939?

same case as homeritz. do you think so?
*
missed your post.... tongue.gif

err.... ya... same as Homer... weakness seen in recent couple quarterlies.... sweat.gif
spring onion
post Apr 26 2015, 09:56 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 26 2015, 04:17 PM)
missed your post.... tongue.gif

err.... ya... same as Homer...  weakness seen in recent couple quarterlies....  sweat.gif
*
woah... i'm supposed you read at least few times.... ohmy.gif

really a stalker shocking.gif
wodenus
post Apr 27 2015, 04:20 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 26 2015, 04:17 PM)
missed your post.... tongue.gif

err.... ya... same as Homer...  weakness seen in recent couple quarterlies....  sweat.gif
*
Homer exports to US right? USD drop would have affected the price.
SUSPink Spider
post Apr 27 2015, 09:57 AM

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Signature woke up rclxm9.gif
foofoosasa
post Apr 27 2015, 10:05 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Apr 27 2015, 09:57 AM)
Signature woke up rclxm9.gif
*
rclxms.gif
I just only roughly look this stock le sweat.gif
johnnyzai89
post Apr 27 2015, 10:05 AM

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homer

catch falling knifee

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