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 M Reits Version 7, Malaysia Real Estate Investment

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Hansel
post Jun 12 2018, 12:13 PM

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QUOTE(TSOM @ Jun 12 2018, 10:48 AM)
I think they are expecting US to raise their interest rate this week.

so it's not a good time to buy more REITs now??
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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jun 12 2018, 11:34 AM)
For time being, room to upside is limited.
Forsee a stagnant reit market.
If one can find a good stable and attractive yield reit, then different story.

It is highly expected that Fed is going to raise rate this week, and another one down the road within this year.
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Actually, unless the company has borrowings OUTSIDE of Malaysia, there wouldn't be too much of DIRECT effects against the borrowings of local REITs, right ? ... since BNM does not intend to increase interest rates,...
Hansel
post Jun 12 2018, 07:05 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jun 12 2018, 02:52 PM)
Partly yes.
It won't affect directly reit earning/borrowing cost.

But it may affect foreign investors appetite, as nowadays stock market is inter related worldwide.
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Tq,...

Just two things/points :-

1) smart investors will be able to distinguish this.
2) But,.. I think if all central banks increase rates, I don't think BNM can hold out too long,... for obvious reasons,...
Hansel
post Jun 12 2018, 09:55 PM

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QUOTE(chiongchiong888 @ Jun 12 2018, 07:28 PM)
and if the REITS have mostly fixed interest rates in their portfolios. Shouldnt be a problem right?
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Generally, Yes,... but it also depends on when the time comes for the REIT to renew its loan facility,... by that time, if it has not yet 'adjusted itself' to the new higher loan interest environment, THEN,.. basically,.. its dpu will be affected.

QUOTE(Smurfs @ Jun 12 2018, 07:41 PM)
If interest rate increase, it will narrow the yield spread between REIT and other fixed income instrument, which will make REIT less attractive.

Basic economics,

stock up, bond down.

Interest rate up, REIT / Bond down.
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Yes,... increasing interest rate will compress the yield gap, making REIT yield needing to go HIGHER to attract investors. The enable a REIT yield to go higher, its unit price must drop,... OR,... its dpu must INCREASE.

Either one of the above will 'enlarge' the yield gap again,....

Back to my point earlier,.. if BNM does not increase interest rates in Msia,... then, theoretically, the yield gap remains steady,...
Hansel
post Jun 13 2018, 10:15 AM

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QUOTE(TSOM @ Jun 12 2018, 10:20 PM)
Hansel

I see. So now we can expect higher DPU .... brows.gif
so it's a good time to buy USD now??

how does the interest rates affect bank stocks??
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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Jun 12 2018, 10:42 PM)
long USD with small amount doesn't make much difference for retail investor perspective.

I am talking about financial institution holding billions of deposit money.

The biggest beneficial is US bank probably followed by HK Bank.

Malaysian bank expected to get benefit from this too but probably longer time frame since BNM seems intend to remain the same rate ( but I expect they will slowly increase 25 BP in coming months)

hmm.gif  innocent.gif
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Emm, bro TSOM... it's harder to increase dpu, because in order to raise dpu, the rental collected must be higher. I don't know much abt the T's and C's of the leases in Msian REITs, but I would think given the current economic situation in Msia,... no tenant would easily allow the REIT manager to raise the rental easily ! They can just move to another premise IF there is no legal binding,...

So,.. I think,... to maintain the yield-gap, the easiest way would be to drop the REIT's unit price,.... I invite opinions to my above opinion.... I'm afraid I'm more familiar with the SG mkt,....

Bro Foo,... if you look back at history, there were periods when the USD would WEAKEN even when the FOMC raise interest rates. I was surprised too when I saw this,... hence, it's not a 100% surety that the USD would strengthen with rising Feds rates,....
Hansel
post Jun 13 2018, 10:19 AM

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QUOTE(Smurfs @ Jun 13 2018, 08:37 AM)
MGS yield has been rising this year and now approaches 4.28%. If continue to rise we could see another round of M-REIT sell down.
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Yes, bro Smurfs,... if MGS yield = 4.30%, what would be the recommended REIT yield please ?
Hansel
post Jun 13 2018, 11:24 AM

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QUOTE(Smurfs @ Jun 13 2018, 10:46 AM)
IMO, Prime REIT(like IGBREIT) yield should be command about 100-150 basis point above MGS yield / FD Rate.
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So,... if MGS yields 4.30%, then a prime REIT like IGBREIT should yield 4.30% + 0.15% = 4.45%.... hmm,.. not too wide a spread... I think should be wider,.. otherwise,... hoho,... earning 0.15% more in a risky REIT,... everybody would not be willing to do so.
Hansel
post Jun 13 2018, 11:28 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jun 13 2018, 11:02 AM)
This years Fed 3 times rate hike has already baked into the market, so any big USD movement only will come from unexpected rate hike cycle/times.
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Or quantum,... eg instead of hiking 0.25%, perhaps hike by 0.50%,.....tonight ????
Hansel
post Jun 13 2018, 12:42 PM

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QUOTE(Smurfs @ Jun 13 2018, 11:47 AM)
Bro, 100 basis points would be equivalent to 1%.
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Apologies,.. you are right,... then 4.30% would need to 'rise to' 5.80% yield of a REIT for the REIT to remain attractive to investors,.... a difference of 1.50% is,.. okay,...

..what if the REIT is so-so only ??

Rental income collected is also unstable... What sort of yield-gap would investors demand then ?
Hansel
post Jun 13 2018, 06:01 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jun 13 2018, 02:19 PM)
No chance at all. I will treat you Starbuck if raise 50 basic point, if not you treat me...  laugh.gif

Current Fed is not hawkish bias one, in fact, pretty dovish, and slow in raising rate.

Normally 200~300 basic points difference for those higher risk one, around >7% to justify the risk taken.
Quite similar to Sreit, those big cap stable one, yield around 5%, while those a bit high risk one around 6~7%.

Those so so one can be traded at significant discount to its NAV as well.
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Sure bro Cherroy,... biggrin.gif biggrin.gif

Just sent to me by an investor pal in SG : https://sbr.com.sg/financial-services/news/...means-singapore

There is expectation fro a rapid rise in the US interest rates,...

This post has been edited by Hansel: Jun 13 2018, 06:11 PM
Hansel
post Jun 14 2018, 09:22 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jun 13 2018, 02:19 PM)
No chance at all. I will treat you Starbuck if raise 50 basic point, if not you treat me...  laugh.gif

Current Fed is not hawkish bias one, in fact, pretty dovish, and slow in raising rate.

Normally 200~300 basic points difference for those higher risk one, around >7% to justify the risk taken.
Quite similar to Sreit, those big cap stable one, yield around 5%, while those a bit high risk one around 6~7%.

Those so so one can be traded at significant discount to its NAV as well.
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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jun 13 2018, 06:01 PM)
Sure bro Cherroy,...  biggrin.gif  biggrin.gif

Just sent to me by an investor pal in SG : https://sbr.com.sg/financial-services/news/...means-singapore

There is expectation fro a rapid rise in the US interest rates,...
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Bro Cherroy,... I declined to comment yesterday when you mentioned this statement : Current Fed is not hawkish bias one, in fact, pretty dovish, and slow in raising rate.

At this morning's press conf at The Feds, the tone was exactly opposite, which I expected to be so. Three statements I made this morning,...
1) As expected and ' priced-in' , the Feds announced a hike of 0.25% at 2.30 am this morning.
2) The more impt observation is that the tone of the Feds is now more hawkish, and there will be another two hikes this year.
3) Then the mention of the neutral rate... possibly at... 3% at the current pace of economic trajectory before they pause.


Hansel
post Jun 14 2018, 02:24 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jun 14 2018, 10:35 AM)
The potential extra 1 rate hike for this year came in a little surprise.

Fed should be more hawkish, as US economy is "red hot" + tax cut boosting, almost full employment, inflation headlines has reached 2%.
If they are not hawkish enough, they potential behind the curve.

A lot of time, if read from the past, behind the curve was one of reason why crisis unfolding.
As too low rate for too long, tend to induce risk taking behaviour, then lead to some sort of bubbles.

I am happily to take back my word of dovish, if Fed is indeed walking their talk.
Previously, they are pretty slow in ending the QE as well as raising rate, despite many talks of ending the QE.

Yes, next year another 3 times hike was also a priced in factor, this is known to the market.
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Said to be two times this year. And as you said three times next year,... then will be touching 3.25%,... above the suspected neutral rate already,... hmm,...
Hansel
post Jun 14 2018, 09:38 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jun 14 2018, 02:47 PM)
After yesterday rate hike, Fed fund rate now is at 1.75%,
2 x this year rate hike + 3 x rate hike next year = 3%.
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After yesterday's rate hike, it's now at 2.00%,... or 1.75% ???
Hansel
post Jul 17 2018, 01:55 PM

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QUOTE(SetsunaSoon @ Jul 13 2018, 08:52 PM)
Everyone wants something that they don't have, but when enough is enough?

We have been motivated by greed and fear so much that we keep accumulate more and more things to prove our self-worth, end up having huge debt and as a result, become corporate slave for decades.
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I used to think like you, bro,... but as I grew older, I realized I needed more than what I planned earlier,.... smile.gif
Hansel
post Nov 3 2018, 10:20 AM

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Bros,... wait for the prospectus to come out, the benefits, risks, offers and taxes will be inside.

If you are keen to invest, just start saving your money now, and do not renew your FDs for long periods anymore,...
Hansel
post Nov 14 2018, 04:04 PM

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It's not a very good idea to set up a REIT with assets for which the rental is difficult to collect ! - purely common sense here,... odd venture this is !
Hansel
post Nov 19 2018, 02:08 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Nov 15 2018, 06:52 PM)
well maybe they see it as opportunity to sell unsold stocks  dry.gif 
unless stated TE dividend, all would be charged 10%  biggrin.gif
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Yes,... an exit plan for them,... thumbsup.gif

mad.gif
Hansel
post Jan 13 2019, 11:19 PM

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QUOTE(Havoc Knightmare @ Jan 12 2019, 01:41 PM)
Yes what we need are more quality and large REITs on the market. Also unfortunately, the accounting methods that some of these institutions use indirectly drive demand for REITs. And also withholding tax imposed on dividends. Until these factors are addressed, MREITs will be less attractive compared to SREITs.
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Not to mention when you hold SREITs, you are earning income based on a strong and resilient currency !
Hansel
post Jul 30 2019, 01:44 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Jul 30 2019, 01:19 PM)
Already sold IGBREIT a month ago but now thinking of buying it for its dividend.

I feel stupid. sad.gif
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Did you sell it accidently ?
Hansel
post Jul 30 2019, 05:34 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Jul 30 2019, 02:34 PM)
nope. I sold it because the price was really high, around RM 1.98~1.99.

Also worried about the next financial crisis.
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Then this was a good conscious decision made by you as an investor. Nothing stupid abt that.

Time will one day prove you are right !
Hansel
post Sep 3 2019, 12:44 PM

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QUOTE(Dividend Warrior @ Sep 1 2019, 09:53 PM)
Thanks! Aiming for $SGD29k dividends next year  biggrin.gif
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Like to make one comment here : one thing abt focussing on dividend-investing is, one should not solely look at the dividend collected, one should also be defensive in the dividend stocks that one chooses to invest in. I noticed some dividend-investing bloggers would mention they are collecting so much and so much of dividend for a particular period, monthly or quarterly, but they would never mention if the dividend stocks they are holding are at losing positions or not.

I do understand the fact that one has NOT lost yet until one has sold, but wouldn't it be better if the dividend stocks are at winning positions, and the higher the current price the stock is at compared to the investor's holding price, the larger the margin-of-safety the investor is enjoying ?

Isn't this 'safety' critical for a dividend-investor ? What's the point of earing ots of dividend over a period, but ultimately losing it all in a 'nett sense' if the counter gets wiped out ?

Another comment I'd like to make is : using gearing to buy dividend stocks in order to to earn the 'differential dividend', ie dividend earned minussing interest and other expenses paid out to the loan-provider. In today's volatile environment, is this safe anymore ?

Is there safety here to justify this type of risk-taking, especially by a risk-averse dividend investor ? Or a retiree ?

Shouldn't we be using our own funds to invest as a risk-averse dividend-investor ? Using borrowed funds to invest for dividend equivalent to a capital-gain investor who has a higher risk-appetite ?



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