A bit surprise with MQreits result where most ppl worried about office glut. If 2h18 managed renewed the remaining tenants / acquired new tenants such as Microsoft, it'll be lesser concerns on lease renewal that expiring in next 3 years (2019 - 12%, 2020 - 17%, 2021 - 1%).

On the other hand, SunReit looks relative pricey at 1.7x where latest DPU a bit disappointing.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...e-klang-valley/

Mall REIT - rental downward pressure getting worse by next year

MQREIT fall to new low might worth for a look. Downside: office space glut is concerning and recent reported losses due to much lower prop re-valuation.

Upside, new MTN and CP worth 450mil might reflect better saving on lower interest rate in coming quater. Slight improve occupancy from 89% to 90% on quarterly basis.

No one can give you absolute answer. But recent low is a good chance to re-position my reit allocation as EPF do a small charity sales. Other choices are those with master lease like Alaqar and YTLReit.

Due to potential ncor virus outbreak, i reduced my holding on retail reit. If any cases really happen like what viral in gm klang, small retailer will suffered most and tenancy rate.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/wuha...opping-premises

This post has been edited by return78: Feb 7 2020, 01:17 PM

Sorry as i do not explained myself properly. I'm not referring to fix / standard rental leasing option where fixed rental / increment ratio is agreed upfront. Do understand from friend that certain malls do practice leasing options like profit sharing / tier based on sales figures etc. [found some discussion here https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3719467/all] Thus, it had potential short / mid terms impact. I'll glad if any leasing manager which had better insight can share some pointers on this.

As expected, retailer seek for rebate but being told it's still too early.
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/reta...covid19-effects
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/stil...-tell-retailers

If covid19 prolonged, the malls that had higher exposure on small retails for small retail space / stalls within the mall; or even niche player like KIPReit might had higher vulnerability.

Seem like my reading was right partially. Retail REIT take quite big hits once covid19 escalated. Alaqar was most defensive so far. Anywhere, i had let go almost all REIT couple weeks back including Alaqar except stuck in MQReit and YTLReit (which sold 1/3 only), with past dividend, treat it just like an FD for now.

Probably come back in later days when see some light in covid19 tunnel.


Rumour on lockdown is impose fear and potential impact to retail REIT. Sentiment is very bad now.

Its better wait for MOH announcement at 5pm later.

This post has been edited by return78: Mar 16 2020, 04:31 PM

IDSS

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/burs...etwide-selldown

Agreed, similar to one will feel superb depressed and intense on the moment diagnostic with chronic illnesses. As time goes, s/he will adjust their life and become a new norm.

However, Covid19 impact on economy still yet to found its bottom. Many businesses might not able to survive as it prolonged is a real concern.

Although movement control order (MCO) is tentatively targeting 2 weeks. However, depend on covid19 development, please bear in mind there is chance MCO get extended if covid-19 escalated further.

> At 2018, when FED rising the interest rate, most of reit counter plunged.
> At late 2019, most reit counter hit historical high.
> At current once in 100 years outbreak, retail is among the impact sector, current price correction is still relative mild compared to 2018. On flip side, OPR rate is hit historical low.

On layman term,
2018 rate hike, it merely pay more interest, reduced profit. Mall management still able to take various efforts to counter the impact.

2020, covid 19, the outbreak had affect the ability to conduct business, MCR introduced. No sight of medicine & vaccine for covid19 yet. Mall management had very limited options to address these problems.

Its something we shall think carefully prior make the purchase with assumption it's never goes wrong with top rated reit. Headwind from external might just strong. Take a look at those top rated company in their respective industry - Airasia, GenM, Genting, which dive historical low.

Just my 2 cents.

Post MCO, it doesn't meant back to normal immediately. It likely take longer than expected due to reasons stated in articles below.

Some article referred by Bill Gates and local medical expert.
https://twitter.com/BillGates/status/124471...9663501313?s=20
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/...linkId=85439737
https://www.malaymail.com/news/what-you-thi...r-singh/1851568

The possibility of SME or listed company can't survive due to halt / slow of economy activities is enormous. Unlike previous GFC, ppl still move freely and only certain group of ppl / industry / countries are affected severely, limited storm eye. Now, if you look at whole world, i'm loss count how man countries impose lock down / movement control. Country like India, Indonesia, Russia, South America & African countries are time bomb. If China, European countries and US is struggling and take severe hits, would you think these countries can do better?

On bright side, most gov & central bank had acted on fiscal & monetary policy to stimulus market.

Western's government by and large had underestimated the covid19 and now they hit badly. It's lesson learned for us and don't underestimated the impact as we're in uncharted waters ahead.

Alaqar is offer 4-5% discount today. Probably some fund house unload.

CMMT is finding its bottom. Some are get scared off by IGBReit Q2 result. If Midvalley suffered such lossess, CMMT's KV malls will be worsen.

CMMT price broken 70 physiological level. It remind me their glory days back in 2013 @ 1.8 - 1.9, and trending down toward 1.3 prior a spike ~ 1.83 due to 2017 windows dressing.

There are many REIT fall under same pitfall like AmFIRST and recently MQReit too.

Those stick on DCA or buy and hold REIT must rethink carefully and re-balance their portfolio over the years to avoid falling into trap.

The key message I wanted bring out is don't blindly do DCA or simply buy n hold but proper portfolio allocation & assessment in scheduled basis.

There are lots of young investor out there, some skewed message was painted where REIT is VERY safe asset. What happened to CMMT today, it MAY be the fate for IGBReit in 15 years later (IGBReit just an example quote). There's always reason for the share price falling regardless mall, office, etc.

Office or Mall?

It seems like Malaysian is very optimistic on mall reit. Just my personal gut feel some are overvalued but some are slowly reflect their value.

If look at longer timespan like 10 to 20 years, I would preferred hospitality against retail mall.

Today lots of reit counter had big movement especially YTLReit. YTLReit kinda become high beta stock where its likely foreign index fund is making move again.

They probably worried about curfew in Victoria state.

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_inform...?ann_id=3073593

Its about asset allocation instead of arguing buying glove, banking stocks etc but diversified to REIT, real properties, stocks portfolio, gold/ bitcoins etc.

Look at HSBC Hong Kong, it was crowned as mother of all dividend stock in HK back then, what'll happen to one rely merely HSBC dividend for retirement?

https://www.ejinsight.com/eji/article/id/14...000-hsbc-shares

Frequent mall patron from south part of KV such as B.Jalil, Sri Petaling, Bdr Kinrara, or even Serdang/Sri Kembangan will be diluted due to Pavilion B. Jalil.

Alaqar - Normally EPF will normalized it at 1.3 but today on sales at 1.25. Any negative news / development lately?

On flipside, YTLReit seems like get snap up. Cheap sales below 90 cents ended.

This post has been edited by return78: Jun 16 2021, 10:30 AM