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 Falling Oil Prices - Where it leaves Malaysia, Not too bad afterall

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AVFAN
post Apr 1 2015, 02:25 PM

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QUOTE(stanzai @ Apr 1 2015, 08:06 AM)
Guys popcorn masuk angin.. strong resistance around USD55~ for brent and USD47~ for WTI. How did the Iran nuclear talk fair?
Anyways, seems like Iran will benefit regardless of the outcomes.
*
brent now breaking <55.

iran talks went over time, likely a deal by end of day today.

experts predicting usd5 fall!
nexona88
post Apr 1 2015, 05:11 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Apr 1 2015, 02:25 PM)
brent now breaking <55.

iran talks went over time, likely a deal by end of day today.

experts predicting usd5 fall!
*
extra crude supply from Iran after the deal? hmm.gif
AVFAN
post Apr 1 2015, 05:17 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Apr 1 2015, 05:11 PM)
extra crude supply from Iran after the deal?  hmm.gif
*
yup, that's the point. effect may be subdued in reality, but markets can react kneejerk.

QUOTE
Iran currently produces around 2.8 million barrels per day (bpd), according to Tchilinguirian, although Western sanctions limit exports to around only around 1 million bpd. The country keeps around 30 million barrels of crude on its fleet of oil tankers.

"Which sanctions will be lifted and the uncertainty in the timing of lifting suggest that Iran will not be in position to significantly add to the current oversupply in the market," he said.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102551145

nexona88
post Apr 1 2015, 05:22 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Apr 1 2015, 05:17 PM)
yup, that's the point. effect may be subdued in reality, but markets can react kneejerk.
*
I see...
nexona88
post Apr 7 2015, 05:06 PM

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Oil falls as Iran, China discuss more supply
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/o...ly?type=Markets

AVFAN
post Apr 7 2015, 06:24 PM

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oil price volatile, usd decline, rm recovered.

volatility will not go away, do what u need to do at the right time!

Jan 29 2015
usd44.50
3.6375
Feb 4 2015
usd52
3.564
Feb 11 2015
usd50
3.60
Feb 18 2015
usd54
3.595
Mar 4 2015
usd51
3.6475.

Mar 10 2015
usd49.60
3.705
Mar 18 2015
usd44.12
3.709
usd46.13
3.6725
Mar 19 2015 7pm
usd45.34
3.708
Mar 27 2015 7pm
usd50.55
3.687

Mar 30, 2015 5pm
usd 48.10
3.713
Apr 6 2015 6pm
usd51.60
3.6395


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 7 2015, 06:26 PM
stanzai
post Apr 8 2015, 05:01 AM

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US Crude up due to the surge in job openings.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102564300
nexona88
post Apr 8 2015, 08:51 PM

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Oil falls on larger-than-expected U.S stock build, record Saudi output in March.

"We're going to need to see a very big uptick in demand to offset that supply," Ben Le Brun, analyst at OptionsXpress in Sydney, said. "There is a glut of supply in oil at the moment."

Adding to that supply, Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi said late on Tuesday that Saudi output would likely remain around 10 million barrels per day (bpd) after posting a record high of 10.3 million bpd in March.
stanzai
post Apr 9 2015, 04:39 AM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Apr 8 2015, 08:51 PM)
Oil falls on larger-than-expected U.S stock build, record Saudi output in March.

"We're going to need to see a very big uptick in demand to offset that supply," Ben Le Brun, analyst at OptionsXpress in Sydney, said. "There is a glut of supply in oil at the moment."

Adding to that supply, Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi said late on Tuesday that Saudi output would likely remain around 10 million barrels per day (bpd) after posting a record high of 10.3 million bpd in March.
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I really don't know how effective is their strategy to flood the market trying bring down the oil price. Having said that, i personally thinks that it gave the Brent a harder blow compare to the WTI US Crude. The gap is narrowed to only USD 5 dollars.
OPEC needs to be smarter than this!
nexona88
post Apr 9 2015, 11:01 AM

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WTI crude dives 6% down shakehead.gif

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-prices-f...-012045031.html]http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-prices-f...-012045031.html
AVFAN
post Apr 9 2015, 11:11 AM

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crude down 6%... but still usd51, nowhere near 40.... so no big damage. tongue.gif

if all these loud n soft noises about iran, saudi, iraq, shale, conspiracies, etc. are cut out... the baseline is intact - there is simply too much oil! laugh.gif and will remain so for months, maybe years.



for us consumers, since we now pay more taxes with gst, cheaper petrol can help.
pustapazik
post Apr 9 2015, 01:39 PM

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Be cautious
SUSsupersound
post Apr 9 2015, 02:32 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Apr 9 2015, 11:11 AM)
crude down 6%... but still usd51, nowhere near 40.... so no big damage. tongue.gif

if all these loud n soft noises about iran, saudi, iraq, shale, conspiracies, etc. are cut out... the baseline is intact - there is simply too much oil! laugh.gif and will remain so for months, maybe years.
for us consumers, since we now pay more taxes with gst, cheaper petrol can help.
*
Now I keep my eyes close on the price, reach 35 do wake me up whistling.gif
nexona88
post Apr 9 2015, 04:51 PM

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Crude oil may rebound to US$80 in 3-5 years -Franklin Templeton Investments yawn.gif
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/c...nklin-templeton
AVFAN
post Apr 9 2015, 06:48 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Apr 9 2015, 04:51 PM)
Crude oil may rebound to US$80 in 3-5 years -Franklin Templeton Investments  yawn.gif
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/c...nklin-templeton
*
i like this one better:

our int rates are nowhere near 0. bnm should cut interest rates to exploit cheap oil prices for economic growth! laugh.gif

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...ct-of-cheap-oil


nexona88
post Apr 9 2015, 08:00 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Apr 9 2015, 06:48 PM)
i like this one better:

our int rates are nowhere near 0. bnm should cut interest rates to exploit cheap oil prices for economic growth! laugh.gif

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...ct-of-cheap-oil
*
u know what.. frien of mine told tat BNM will cut OPR rate at next policy meeting nod.gif
nexona88
post Apr 14 2015, 05:14 PM

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Oil above $58 on US shale output report, Mideast

QUOTE
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Monday it expected U.S. shale production to fall by 45,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 4.98 million bpd in May


http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...east/?style=biz
stanzai
post Apr 16 2015, 05:12 AM

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Wall Street speculations etc. is definitely playing a role in this crisis.

Despite report crude inventory in the states went up, the crude is still post a bullish trend. http://www.cnbc.com/id/102587037

I personally dont see strong fundamentals though for this long term bull run with current oil out put, iran's uplift , etc.

What are your thoughts guys?
AVFAN
post Apr 16 2015, 11:23 AM

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QUOTE(stanzai @ Apr 16 2015, 05:12 AM)
Wall Street speculations etc. is definitely playing a role in this crisis.

Despite report crude inventory in the states went up, the crude is still post a bullish trend. http://www.cnbc.com/id/102587037

I personally dont see strong fundamentals though for this long term bull run with current oil out put, iran's uplift , etc.

What are your thoughts guys?
*
only demi gods will know as the variables are too many. biggrin.gif

moreover, hedge funds moves can flex it in a major way.

afaik, the massive longs haven't unwound yet:
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/l...sking-new-slump

so, i'm with you - this run is probably temp, a lot more volatility ahead.
AVFAN
post Apr 16 2015, 06:41 PM

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oil rallied, so did rm.

Jan 29 2015
usd44.50
3.6375
Feb 4 2015
usd52
3.564
Feb 11 2015
usd50
3.60
Feb 18 2015
usd54
3.595
Mar 4 2015
usd51
3.6475.
Mar 10 2015
usd49.60
3.705
Mar 18 2015
usd44.12
3.709
usd46.13
3.6725
Mar 19 2015 7pm
usd45.34
3.708
Mar 27 2015 7pm
usd50.55
3.687
Mar 30, 2015 5pm
usd 48.10
3.713
Apr 6 2015 6pm
usd51.60
3.6395
Apr 16 2015 6pm
usd 56.06
3.6550

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 16 2015, 06:57 PM

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