i think so. just be ready to sell!

`It does tend to go up in advance of an actual rate hike, but it's one of those cases where people buy the rumor and sell the fact.''

unless the rm gets hammered by even more and worse politics which is possible.

rm is biggest loser in asia this morning, -1.5%.

other asian currencies, less than -0.5%.

think all due to crude, about to crash below 40.



less revenue from petronas, less div to putrajaya.

more debt or higher gst soon? or both?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 14 2015, 10:24 AM

errr...

>4.10.

panic selling...?

and where is our FINANCE MINISTER?

that will surely have major impact.

is there any news report on this?

end of yesterday, 10 yr closed 4.18%, improved from 4.22%.
http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?tpl=govtsecuritiesyield

we'll know tmrw from the data and other reports if there was accelerated selling of mgs today.

looks likely since bursa saw heavy selling too.



4.10 breached, what's next level... 4.20?

should be a working week from 15/8, i.e. 24/8. or 21/8?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 14 2015, 06:21 PM

here we go:

highest 4.25%, closing 4.21%.
http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?tpl=govtsecuritiesyield

there was speculation traders were at work this morning which might just explain the spike to 4.123 at 11.05am.

more likely low 30's, 4.50 will be seen.

do not spread rumurs!

the withdrawal limit thingy was from a foreign blogger; powerful ones want to sue him.
http://www.asiasentinel.com/blog/malaysias...-to-sink-najib/

unless someone experience withdrawal limits for real and report here, or reported officially, pls DO NOT SPREAD RUMURS.

i know.

i was the one who first posted the speculative article.

someone then posted:

If I want to withdraw my matured fd, cannot la?

you then posted:
JUst read in the threads that banks are beginning to limit withdrawals already


pls delete/amend yr posts unless u have other sources to confirm.

i did at with the article:

there was speculation traders were at work this morning which might just explain the spike to 4.123 at 11.05am.



anyway, we'll see next week how things will develop, what official reports, what the menteris will say.

mgs going to 4.25, 4.21 yesterday does not bode well.
http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?tpl=govtsecuritiesyield

so... can't print easy, can't borrow easy, largest funds cashflow not enough, petronas $ not enough...

what do u think might be some of the things a gomen in that situation will do?

i think by wed, some major banks would hv made some reasonable forecasts.

daily mgs yield data and bursa activity might lend some clue to the direction and pace.



the problem is with confidence. over the weeks and months, there hasn't been any concrete move to combat the fall. a couple of ministers have simply said "it's all due to external", and all the absentee fin minister said was "excessive politics". how about doing something like immediate suspension of certain spending or repatriation of some gomen owned foreign assets? it's almost like saying "ya, it's like that, can't do nothing"!

bnm may be intervening but the fact that it has declared to the world there will be no peg, there will be no capital controls does seem to hint that the gomen is all ready and willing to let it slide to whatever level necessary. if that is correct, the rm will likely slide quite a bit more as just about everything is still working against it - sustained falling oil and gas prices, pressure from devalued rmb, worsening scandal politics. the only thing that might perk the rm up is the us fed hints strongly in next sep meeting that a planned rate hike is put on hold.

imo, it's still all looking very dark and gloomy...

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 16 2015, 01:07 AM

see how quickly things change in just 2 months?!

today:
1. Put S$1000 in FD renew on maturity from 1997-2015 = S$1208.84
2. Put RM1790 in FD renew on maturity from 1997-2015 = RM3652.44
3. S$1208.84 x 2.90 (aug 2015) = RM3505.64

interest rate parity will fulfill its "prophecy" when rate gets to 3.02.

anyone care to do for the usd?

one quick and dirty speculative approach: 3.02/2.90 x 4.08 = 4.25.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 16 2015, 02:12 AM

and academically, there is always a margin of error. when it can undershoot, it can also overshoot.
so, there is good chance for +5%, i.e. 4.46 and 3.17.


this question cannot be answered unless u bring in the politics.
personally, it is crystal clear to me the powerful ones will go to great lengths and creativity to keep support as as to protect their own pockets n bank accounts.
for the rest, it will be simple easy ways as it has been since 1998.

for new few years, i see zero chance civil service get downsized. most likely it will just grow slower.
the obvious prime funding method will be increased debt. others have already pointed - just pay a bit more interest and the billions will flow in new mgs or asx funds.
secondly, can incr gst next year. can incr to a level where you can still sing the song "our gst is still lower than x, y, z..."

how long that can continue will depend on how long crude and cpo prices stay low. and the politics too, of course.

and if the commodity supercycle theory has its way, they will stay low for a couple more years at least.

where the rm go then?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 16 2015, 10:45 AM

yes, i think there is no harm whatever he says. i actually like to read his posts.

one has look past the occasional cynicism and sarcasm to understand the underlying issues, then explore further yrself!

with yr diversification and quantum, yr prudence in "what if's", u will be the last person here to need advice.


anyway, the speculative predictions so far in this thread have been... 3.30, 3.80, 4.0, 4.1, 4.25, 4.46, 5.0, 6.0... take yr pick!

i had always like sam chee kong's (economic adviser to NUBE) write ups - sound arguments backed up with lots of data.

his latest one is about the rm.

if interested, read it. u might get some answers u are looking for.

ok, it's just one man's view in a blog, ya?!

http://samcheekong.blogspot.com/

the average msian can't do much.
just don't get into more difficulty by overspending, over borrowing, taking excessive risks.
some may want to grow own veg or make own cheese, but i think all that is just nice talk, zero effectiveness on yr wallet.


bloomberg article... yes, it is always good to read arguments and views from all sides.
there were many such articles in bloomberg and cnbc in may-june about how crude price will return to 70+ by sep.
need to read a lot more to make own judgment and decisions, if any is to be made.