Trade Surplus is finished goods export out from Msia is more than what we imported from other countries.
In term of trade / economy, money receive from the goods sold is more(exports) than money payment for the goods imports.

More likely to be a quiet bailout by the Malaysian government than a default, I think.

Most probally bnm will probally fill in the gap if malaysia really default as they have a huge reserve

Except kankong, bean sprout, durian and palm oil; over half of  rice, vegetables, fruits, fish, flour, milk powder,  beef, chicken feed, clothes, etc are imported. Myr depreciation have no impact on everyday life.

the key danger now is 1mdb loans.

from the way the last int payment was made, high chance it will default eventually given shadowy secretive unexplained stories climaxing now.

question is what impact it will hv on other loans, other banks, mgs, bursa.

the fact they the politicians keep harping "no systematic risk" tells u it is a n issue, however small it may seem then or now.
while we wait for bnm fx data today:

usd/myr 4.257

there isn't much confidence among investors and world community, is there?

In all fairness, I think malaysia is in better shape than Greece. We have most of our sovereign debt in RM, not USD (although there are about 30-35% holdings by foreigner) and we still are in charge of our own monetary policy.

Disaster will happen if the manager of our economy continue the same fiscal policy and do not exercise prudence in spending. Over long run, we will have the same fate of Greece. Just that we have a few more monetary tools than Greece to use

Yes USD denominated Malaysian debt is relatively low if USD don't get too high. I agree right now it is not an issue. I see 2 different worlds, one is where people are watching out and making plans for a sovereign debt crisis in all emerging countries the other is people are not concern about it.

The total USD denominated debt by the non US countries is 9 trillion USD in which a bit more than half of it is held by emerging countries. There are people I know preparing for a debt crisis world wide because they can measure the extend of the USD rise, but it is only an estimation base on historical data in conjunction with some models.... so hopefully Malaysia will be spared as USD soar. (Sorry I can't quote a lot of facts because I am not sure if they are proprietary or not)

So heed unker dreamer's advice and redeem all your ASx today. You will thank me when what you said above come true 

Sigh... it is frustrating that I can't talk and give evidence about the things I come across because I am bound by my employers T and C.

I agree right now we are not facing any sovereign debt issue. So are the other emerging countries that have about north of 5 trillion in USD debt. 1 thing may lead to another.

Ya talking about risk, the foreigners are escaping to mitigate their risk. Likewise, the risk for ASx and even EPF has corresponding increased. It is totally up to the individual holding the ASx and EPF to reassess their risk profile. Obviously there are many people thinking the 6.x% in ASx will still worth the risk

Have always been posting in SG Reits thread 

There are a lot of good guys here willing to share. I learn a lot from others too 

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia saw exports in July increase 3.5% from a year earlier as demand for electrical and electronic goods surged, government data showed on Friday.

According to the median forecast from a Reuters poll, economists had forecast exports would rise 3.2% on the back of a weakening ringgit currency, although individual estimates varied.

Exports of manufactured products helped boost July's figure as demand for electronic integrated circuits grew, especially from China.
Despite a weaker ringgit, imports did much better than expected, rising 5.9% from last year due to increases in imports of electronic circuits, petroleum oils and medicament.

Economists had predicted a 0.8% drop. This is the first increase for imports after three consecutive months of decline since the government implemented a consumption-based Goods and Services Tax (GST) in April.

The ringgit is the worst performing emerging Asian currency this year, having fallen more than 17% this year.

The trade surplus in July dropped to RM2.38bil (US$559.9mil)  from RM7.98bil in June. Exports to China increased 32.7%, while US exports grew 20.2%, underpinned by demand from the manufactured goods sector.

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...cast/?style=biz

To be fair, give some benefit of doubt in term of

1. July is festive month, lesser working days for many factories so output/export might be a bit lower.

2. Weakening of RM is more pronounce after end of July (July time RM/USD was 3.80, but weakening fast since Aug). So the impact of weak RM has not fully reflected yet.

3. Let see those increase in import will translate into increase in export in Aug. As bulk of import from the past history were semi-finished goods (especially electronics), that being processed here and export later on.

Considered domestic consumption has weaken, so import figure shouldn't be as good, unless those import increase are most semi-finished goods or big capital expenditure like heavy machinery etc.

Yes, a lower trade surplus indeed a concern, but not a disastrous figure.

We need Aug data to see further the real effect and trending.

Ok now lets see the reporting from another source. It give much more information and data.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/balance-of-trade

Malaysia Trade Surplus Misses Forecasts in July

Malaysia reported a MYR2.38 billion trade surplus in July of 2015, down from MYR3.64 billion a year earlier and missing market consensus. It is the smallest trade surplus since October 2014, as imports grew more than exports.

Year-on-year, exports increased by 3.5 percent to MYR63.20 billion in July. Sales rose for: electrical and electronics/E&E products (+12.1 percent to MYR23.1 billion, accounting for 36.5 percent to total exports), timber and timber-based products (+14.1 percent to MYR1.8 billion, 2.9 percent share), natural rubber (+60.7 percent to MYR484.1 million, 0.8 percent share) and palm oil and palm based-products (+2.4 percent to MYR5.8 billion, 9.1 percent total share). In contrast, outbond shipments declined for: refined petroleum products (-48.7 percent to MYR3.0 billion, 4.8 percent share), LNG (-23.6 percent to MYR3.1 billion, 4.9 percent share) and crude petroleum (-21.1 percent to MYR1.9 billion, 3.0 percent share).

Compared to the previous year, outbond shipments rose to China (+MYR2.3 billion), the US (+1.0 billion), Vietnam (+MYR322.6 million), Indonesia (+MYR278.5 million) and Thailand (+MYR278.4 million).

Imports rose by 5.9 percent to MYR60.9 billion, the first increase after three straight months of drop, as purchases gained for all categories. Inbound shipments of intermediate goods, representing 60.3 percent to total imports, increased 5.7 percent to MYR36.7 billion, mainly due to a 10.9 percent increase in parts & accessories of capital goods (except transport equipment) and a 49.1 percent rise in fuel & lubricants, processed, other. Purchases of consumption goods, contributing 8.7 percent share, rose 25.7 percent to MYR5.3 billion, mainly due to a 69.0 percent increase in semi-durables, food & beverages for household consumption (+19.3 percent) and non-durables (+20.7 percent). Inbound shipments for capital goods, representing 12.3 percent share, rose 3.2 percent to MYR7.5 billion, mainly due to transport equipment, industrial (+18.9 percent) and capital goods except transport equipment (+1.6 percent).

Compared to the preceding year, imports rise from the EU countries (+MYR941.1 million), China(+MYR640.6 million), Taiwan (+MYR511.2 million), Vietnam(+MYR390.1 million) and Saudi Arabia (+MYR319.1 million).

In June 2015, Malaysia posted a  MYR 7.98 billion trade surplus.

extracted from that report below.

now we know:
electrical/electronics exports at 37% is by far the largest export.
oil/gas/petroleum products at 12.7% is 2nd.
palm oil at 9% is 3rd.
timber is not big, rubber is small.

if prices of commodities petroleum and palm oil stay low, only an excellent electrical/electronics sector can help in a signifcant way.

anyone with good info about such new factories/expansion or closures in penang or elsewhere?

1) Data sometimes got outlier one, due to seasonal effect or whatever circumstances.

2) We need to compile a number of months data before can make a conclusion, aka to see the trending.

3) As I mentioned before the real weakening RM effect only start after end of July as at July the RM/USD was still at Rm3.7~3.8.
There are details breakdown on countries export/import figure, can find it from there, if interested to look beyond.

Yes, a lower trade surplus is a concern, but at current global environment, export will be weak across. If considered oil price plunging effect, which is almost nearly half the price of last year and plunging CPO price, a maintained export figure is already quite good enough.
Asking for more is a bit "greedy" already.

Actually too low import figure is also a bad number, as if import figure is weak, it suggested weak domestic consumption, which only means domestic economy is weak aka poorer GDP growth.
A strong economy needs both front, export + domestic consumption.

To satisfy every aspect and everyone, we need a goldilock figure (a ++ export with + import).