QUOTE(Bonescythe @ Jan 5 2015, 04:59 PM)
That is the logical thinking..
Can BNM be illogical?
Well, I dunno la.. I just hear based on some source.. Saying will hike OPR again this year.
BNM under Zeti is under good hand.
QUOTE(Bonescythe @ Jan 5 2015, 05:41 PM)
1 fact in 2015 tat we cannot run away.
the US will raise rate this year.
and their monetary policy will have global effect.. now usd 1 = myr 3.54
when rates hike.. probably become 3.70 3.80...
no choice but to hike rates to preserve money in malaysia.. if not, more outflow.
Actually, the RM situation is not that "scary", every currency also drop against USD, just the degree of drop is more compared to the like Baht, or other emerging currencies, but not overly excessive.
RM vs Yen, Aud actually is rising, and little change against NZD.
So there is no immediate need for rate hike to stop the outflow.
Last time, when US QE, massive inflow, now no more QE, outflow.
As long as it doesn't cause significant threat to the foreign currency reserves adequate needs, BNM doesn't need to raise rate to counter the outflow, those hot money won't also stay in just because 0.25 or 0.5% more in rate.
Somemore, raising rate significantly could kill economy growth.
1997 crisis already gave many countries lesson, raising rate is not the way to solve the money outflow, instead you kill the economy in the process of doing so.