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 Property Bubble Burst or Deflate ? V14 (发), Cherroy Most Forwarded Thread

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icemanfx
post Nov 19 2014, 03:10 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 19 2014, 10:29 AM)
The stronger the holding power the longer they can hold, trick is release one by one, each time ask for higher price.

You never heard of Yonanas ah ? So outdated lah U...
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Syndicates game plan is different from flippers, they don't hold for long, offload early and move on to next deal.


icemanfx
post Nov 20 2014, 01:33 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 19 2014, 10:08 PM)
I told you at any point in time, there are bad news which lead DDD to think the market is going to crash. Subprime, Euro crisis, malaysia MNC closed factories and move out of malaysia, malaysia oil price up to RM2.70 etc etc. All these happened for the past 5-6 years. But property price still high up there

If you really want to see property crash, you have to expect economic crisis like Asian Currency Crisis in 1997/98.

Even crisis happen, only bad property will drop price. Good ones will not be affected much. In 97/98, the effect on price drop is not like 50%. So, your dream house may not be within your reach.
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In 1997 crisis, the bubble was the stock market and property was a collateral damage. However, current bubble is property market.

QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 19 2014, 11:11 PM)
40K buy what ? OUG Parklane  cheapesr unit 10% DP already gone lah, legal fees, SnP, Stamp Duty, Some Misc, Renovation, furnishings, Weeding expenses ?
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Means flippers will have to hold for long before they could find buyer.

QUOTE(**** @ Nov 20 2014, 12:29 AM)
Aiyo, 300k property , how can stay one ?

1. No luxurious feel.
2. No Facilities to enjoy
3. Not secured.
4. No face to show off among friends
5. Not convenient for travelling ( close to LRT , Mall , whatever crap)
Every malaysian chinese wants the characteristics above plus, no High Tension Cable, New property . How can the property price not high ?
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More like gen y, flippers in particular, they ignored older property and bought only contemporary lifestyle property.

icemanfx
post Nov 21 2014, 01:48 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 20 2014, 10:44 PM)
I predict this thread will soon be redundant. When people has accepted the price, there is no more argument about it.

Just like nobody is arguing the malaysia car price is high (in fact it is 1 of the highest in the world). We cannot find a thread talking about high car price and last until V14. Because people here already accepted it

Soon, the people including the DDD will accept the high house price also, just like cars. No more arguments...
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QUOTE(SaProp @ Nov 20 2014, 11:07 PM)
Bo ddd liao, worry lah, everyone uuu, bubble will form very fast, then will burst faster.........
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The silent before the storm.

icemanfx
post Nov 21 2014, 03:06 AM

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QUOTE(party @ Nov 21 2014, 01:48 AM)
hard to have bubble burst.

One of the most cited example is US in 2007. What people don't realize is the one to poke the bubble to burst is the bank. They securitize and re-securitized the mortgage loan to a level a small needle can pop the whole market. NOT the flippers/buyers/investors fault actually.

2nd greatest example..China. The devs there build at anywhere and everywhere...They built town that duplicate paris etc etc hoping they could attract people to go buy and live there. Wrong move. But price remain relatively high in cities like Shanghai and Beijing.

The rest of other countries..they either fall 5-10% but since then remain. No economy crisis or anything.

Ppl do learn from history. Look at how hard BNM and gov trying to restrict the market. But it becomes a game where shark eat all the small fish while small fish dream they going to bcome big fish or shark to die.
He buy I go bald 2years.
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During bull run, it was punters smart efforts and clever investment that made profit. After the bull run is ended, it is always and solely lenders fault that fuel the bull run and cause the crash.

It is natural for sellers to add their cost e.g interest payment to their price, hence expect natural price rise of 5% to 10% p.a. Few if any sellers will let go of their units at below perceived market price even if the perceived market price is unrealistic and many of the similar units were transacted at lower or foreclosure price. Seller will not accept price drop unless is foreclosed by bank.

Most people don't learn from history. That's why history always repeat itself in different forms.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 21 2014, 03:17 AM
icemanfx
post Nov 21 2014, 04:18 PM

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QUOTE(tnang @ Nov 21 2014, 03:19 PM)
then if petrol price up in future, cost of construction up, property price will up loh, bbb now.
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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 21 2014, 03:27 PM)
OPR will remained, But Property Price UUU all the way  rclxm9.gif
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QUOTE(**** @ Nov 21 2014, 03:39 PM)
Feel bad for bear bear. If the floating system implemented , oil price gone down, businessman wont reduce price. If oil price is shooting to the roof . I bet the property price will increase tremendously.
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This is only one part of equation only and you have neglected other half.
icemanfx
post Nov 21 2014, 04:47 PM

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QUOTE(tnang @ Nov 21 2014, 04:30 PM)
I am lazy to analyze KLSE, so many counters, many hidden info, so I invest in Property, no brainer techniques
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As the barrier of entry is low, many people could and have joined in, profit can't be extraordinary.


icemanfx
post Nov 21 2014, 06:58 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 21 2014, 05:12 PM)
Even another 97 Asia financial crisis also not enough to bring the price down, Unless come a 1929 style great depression or a  massive war like that of Labanon/Iraq, at least Spain style unemployment 1/3 people jobless, or else no way property price will drop back to Pre 2010 price range.

By then I believe you also don't dare to buy.
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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 21 2014, 06:19 PM)
Not to pre 2010 price tag.

Eg. Do you think OUG Parklane will be sold for 280K ?? or Green Terrain 350K ??

At most 3-5% drop.

If you look at 97 itself property price didn't drop much, shop lot maybe but not residential.
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In 1997, property market was a collateral damage. But current bubble is the property market.


icemanfx
post Nov 21 2014, 07:06 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 21 2014, 07:03 PM)
same mah, people get pay cut, business down, get burn in stock market also not letting go their property, this show how important property is, they rather cut on spending die die keep their property, as they know once the winter is over spring will sure to come.
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How many overstretched flippers could survive the long and freezing winter?

icemanfx
post Nov 21 2014, 07:19 PM

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QUOTE(tnang @ Nov 21 2014, 07:09 PM)
Question is how many % is this type of fliipers?
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Number will be unexpectedly high.

QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 21 2014, 07:12 PM)
I would say majority, those who can't will throw at very marginal lower than market price & instantly get pick up by stronger flipper/investor, non will be swim to your park of shallow water..  whistling.gif

Try ask anyone tell agent they will let go 5-10% below market price, i bet the agent will sent them the earnest deposit & 3% cheque the second if not same day.  rclxm9.gif
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This scenario is only occur when the market is on up trend but not on down trend e.g All those who bought gold when the price was cheaper are below water.

icemanfx
post Nov 22 2014, 08:20 AM

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QUOTE(bcpbeancounter @ Nov 21 2014, 11:17 PM)
Low transactions is owner dont wan to sell. Owner wan to wait higher price.
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Means asking price mismatch with market demand, a prelude to price correction.

QUOTE(tnang @ Nov 21 2014, 11:21 PM)
You take spreadsheet calculate, 10% dp, 35 years loan, how much need to pay per month and how much can rent out now for the price 270k. You will know the answer, see goog or not. I pay 30% due to bnm rule.
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Except students and foreigners, those who could rent are likely qualified for loan to buy also. The pool of tenants is smaller than expected.
icemanfx
post Nov 22 2014, 01:00 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 22 2014, 12:50 PM)
It is not that simple, and you cannot see only from the demand side. You have to look at the supply side also

If the cost increase, there are 2 scenario :

1. Demand can swallow the cost increase
Developer will pass on the cost, and still make the same margin. They continue to build

2. Demand cannot swallow the cost increase
a. Developer can absorb the cost. Their margin is lesser. They continue to build. Try to save cost by giving lesser quality material
b. Developer cannot absorb the cost. This business is no more viable. They stop building
Depends on how a person view the market. Initially, business will try to increase price. They will test the water. So, price will still increase at the beginning stage. If they can't sell, then they will either absorb the cost (for developer's who is cost efficient) or stop building (for developer's who is not cost efficient) 

At the end of the day, no matter which scenario 1, 2a or 2b, the losing side will be consumer in inflationary environment and when GST is implemented
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Projects launched recently are expected to VP in 2018, means more subsale are available and overhang is unavoidable.

Construction cost (i.e. building materails, labour, subcon profits) for typical condo is about rm150 psf. Any materials cost increased could easily absorbed by the developer. Further, commodities price is on the downward trend, expect cheaper raw materials in the next few years.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 22 2014, 01:29 PM
icemanfx
post Nov 22 2014, 01:31 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 22 2014, 01:05 PM)
Every year also got VP. Not like all project started only this year. All previous years no new project launched ?
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More supply coming to the market from now to 2018 and beyond, coupled with new launches in the next few years, subsale will be a tough sell.


icemanfx
post Nov 22 2014, 01:52 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 22 2014, 01:39 PM)
Every year got new supply. Every year got new demand. Equilibrium keep shifting. Market forces will cause prices to increase/decrease and thus align capital re-allocation to sector that is most efficient.

In malaysia property market history since the 1960s, the trend is always a healthy upward revision in prices. There maybe some years that is tougher than others, but in long term, it is a healthy investment  thumbup.gif
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Property was a healthy investment because was never a bubble like 2009-2015.


icemanfx
post Nov 22 2014, 08:05 PM

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QUOTE(AppreciativeMan @ Nov 22 2014, 07:15 PM)
Conveniently forgot farmers need to use tractor, generator, water pump, trucks, etc. This show how much our politicians are out of touch from reality.


icemanfx
post Nov 22 2014, 11:52 PM

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QUOTE(AppreciativeMan @ Nov 22 2014, 10:12 PM)
Got Sui for bbw meh??  blink.gif  blink.gif

The second positive in today’s market is that buyers are “more genuine” with the majority of them purchasing for own occupation or to upgrade.

The next two largest groups are people who are buying for their children and those who are buying to rent out the units.

Investors buy to rent out, while speculators buy to flip.

“While we continue to see speculators, they are considerably few,” says Jordan Lee & Jaafar managing director P. Tangga Peragasam.


DDD always says very less genuine house owner or investors......... There is more speculators or flippers in the market mah......  sweat.gif  sweat.gif
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QUOTE(party @ Nov 22 2014, 10:17 PM)
Sorry appreciative bro..Why you create fake story? Why you lie to BBW and students. That whole article don't have this paragraph okay.  laugh.gif  icon_idea.gif
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Actually created for uuu to syok sendiri.

icemanfx
post Nov 23 2014, 10:22 AM

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QUOTE(gunplakk @ Nov 23 2014, 08:58 AM)
msian property market dont make sense to me.... like i said in my early post... the prices SHOULD drop and i have been expecting it to drop... but I have never been right. so far it always proved me wrong. But having said that, lately, the prices seems somewhat stagnated and even some slight drops.

I dont know but GST should increase the prices of property as material cost goes up i guess.

Jan up by 25, seems a bit soon...

http://themalaysianreserve.com/main/news/c...till-1h-of-2015
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Property is illiquid, asking price and transacted price could be a huge difference, and price takes a few years to bottom.

Construction cost I.e materials, labour, subcon profit, etc of typical condo is about rm150 PSF, impact of gst is marginal besides most of these building materials are already paying higher sales tax. If price will goes up because of gst, current asking price will already included the expected increments and up.

icemanfx
post Nov 23 2014, 10:28 AM

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QUOTE(Jliew168 @ Nov 23 2014, 09:39 AM)
OPR increase u have to downgrade your target again..

Petrol floating , developer will increase selling price for unexpected rising cost on petrol
GST constructiom material Increase
Petrol floating cause super inflation , money become smaller
Goodview downgrade to green terrain

Green terrain downgrade to parklane/Connaught avenue downgrade to apartment

From apartment downgrade to ho ching yuen flat... rclxms.gif  tongue.gif
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Unless wages will rise inline or faster than inflation rate, disposable income will drop. A drop in disposable income will have more downward pressure on the housing market than essential daily consumption.

Typical development takes 2 to 4 years to VP, developers are already included gst in projects that VP in 2015 and later.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 23 2014, 10:45 AM
icemanfx
post Nov 23 2014, 10:46 AM

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QUOTE(gunplakk @ Nov 23 2014, 10:40 AM)
All the more reason to wait it out if you can.... msia could be on the journey to the bottom as you say.

Dunno about the price if reflected GST or not.... but my guess is that people will always take advantage to increase prices of stuff.... if i see roti canai price up, some how or rather there will be knock on effect to everything else. perhaps my view too simplistic and one sided. The looming GST sheds a large cloud of uncertainty on alot of things. Uncertainty translate to risk... and in investment, usually with higher risk you will require higher returns... so buying now, with the added risk, do you expect higher returns?  so boils down to your expectations and risk appetite.

for the risk adverse like me, i would side line.
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Typical development takes 2 to 4 years to VP, developers have already included gst in projects that VP in 2015 and later.

More likely some developers will advertise for no gst price increase after April 2015.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 23 2014, 10:51 AM
icemanfx
post Nov 23 2014, 10:54 AM

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QUOTE(Jliew168 @ Nov 23 2014, 10:49 AM)
Not dog eye u. If you buy 5 years before u could get green terrain less than 400k, pearlview less than 300k. Next year may be 500 sq ft studio alone cost more than 600k
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Rm1200 psf is reasonable?

icemanfx
post Nov 23 2014, 11:27 AM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 23 2014, 10:38 AM)
Part time or even full time Ice Cream stall assistant wages has always been extremely slow growth, in fact the entire F & B industry wages is among the lowest, as there is huge competition both in business as well as supply of low skills workers which can easily replaced by foreign labour which only ask for half the wages of locals.

A single property change hand even cheapest one is enough for 10 years wages for a ice cream store assistant 10 years wages with 8 hours X 28 working days plus overtime when needed.

SiGH..  cry.gif
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Then where do you find new entrants to property market?


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