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 Property Bubble Burst or Deflate ? V14 (发), Cherroy Most Forwarded Thread

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Showtime747
post Nov 27 2014, 06:00 PM

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bearbearwong, joke aside, you should really reconsider your financials and what type of house you can afford.

Don't consider your credit card as your cash available to pay deposit. Sure die one....
Showtime747
post Nov 27 2014, 06:31 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 27 2014, 06:01 PM)
see it is truth, you are still classifying and dictating which class you should be... showtime747 ride BMW , you guys cannot, coz I am 20 years ladder, you guys are not..

suspicions is right, that why you are classifying , the buying within means (in your interpretation carries a malevolence idea behind), in certain extend, zuiko also same, like a older man in pack wishes to take lead due to their 20 years old experience..
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When a house buyer use his credit card facilities as part of the deposit, he is not ready to buy a house of that value.

Nothing to do with age, class in society or life experience.

Your mind is full of conspiracy theory. Every word come out from UUU has bad intention. UUU is your obstacle to buy property. UUU are bad guys....

Your mind is not clear anymore. Maybe you are too pressured in real life...
Showtime747
post Nov 27 2014, 07:26 PM

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bearbearwong, cannot be......



http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/26/...N0JA11N20141126
Showtime747
post Nov 28 2014, 08:04 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 28 2014, 07:51 AM)
Typical of your post; without substance or substantiation.
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I find it otherwise. It is your usual 1 liner which is full of bullshit claims without substance

Next time you write longer to explain your point. Otherwise, you claims sound very empty
Showtime747
post Nov 28 2014, 08:06 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 27 2014, 10:52 PM)
Singapore central bank may do more to contain household debt

A Bank of America Merrill Lynch report said that at June 30, Singapore household debt was equivalent to 75.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), while the highest level in Asia was Malaysia, at 86.5 percent


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Walao....Sg also touch 76%. Not far from My....

If people claim My going to collapse because of household debt, then Sg is not very far away from My
Showtime747
post Nov 28 2014, 08:31 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 28 2014, 07:49 AM)
Some claimed local banks and bnm are smarter, more prudent and conservative than the fed and mas.
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Yes. In fact Zeti is A+ central banker. Only 7 A+ bankers in the whole world and FED and MAS are not 1 of them IIRC.
Showtime747
post Nov 28 2014, 09:08 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 28 2014, 08:53 AM)
Guess uuu are well into 2nd stage of denial syndrome.
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Another 1 liner bullshit which don't dispute the facts we posted

No wonder the DDD is getting lesser in both quantity and quality....
Showtime747
post Nov 28 2014, 09:22 AM

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QUOTE(Mikken @ Nov 28 2014, 09:15 AM)
Are we under Martial Law?  flex.gif
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Ya it is very puzzling why bull markets can last long in malaysia. Property market for 5 years and stock market for close to 2 years and no signs of U-turning for these markets

Unusual, unreasonable, unexplained, but it is a fact ! All doomsayers are "surprised" and "missed the boat" tongue.gif


Showtime747
post Nov 28 2014, 10:31 AM

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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Nov 28 2014, 10:15 AM)
Shit! Bear bear pretend never see my comment
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tongue.gif He scared if you press further, you ask him to screen shot his payslip

For all you know, he is graduate with 2 years experience salary only RM3k. With claims only reach 3.7k-4k

Then I will advise him not to buy even RM300k apartment. Wait until RM4k salary only consider buying
Showtime747
post Nov 28 2014, 12:52 PM

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QUOTE(Jliew168 @ Nov 28 2014, 11:00 AM)
Ops don't hurt him again, u already strip him naked and under his top five enemy hahha
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I doubt he will ever wake up....until years later he finally realise the price of property has run away from him

We are actually his friends. Only friends tell the stinging truth which is not very nice to hear thumbup.gif
Showtime747
post Nov 28 2014, 01:02 PM

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QUOTE(AppreciativeMan @ Nov 28 2014, 12:13 PM)
bbw still foresee gov will bulldoze the prop price lower....  brows.gif  brows.gif
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bearbearwong Look at ah jib. He even have to bow to the warlord on some ancient sedition law and make a U-turn on his promise

How to bulldoze the property price when it is the rice bowl of half of the warlords in malaysia ?

The people in MOF and BMN are already drafting new rules to prop up the property market again in 2015. It is not a question of "If", but "When" and "How".

bearbear still mong cha cha thinking of property crash doh.gif

bearbear faster buy lah.....don't fight the people in power...
Showtime747
post Nov 28 2014, 01:47 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 28 2014, 01:18 PM)
Indeed and you left out irrational speculation.
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Not really. Those are in small negligible numbers. When comes to $, most people are very rational
Showtime747
post Nov 28 2014, 01:50 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 28 2014, 01:27 PM)
Showtime747 comments is out.. only trolling.. midget man..
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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 28 2014, 01:38 PM)
He is dictating what is for him and others..who wanna listen o0o
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bearbear, 1 liner cannot convince the reader the market is going down. The UUU has presented so many facts and news on why the market is not going down. You got to work harder to convince the readers. Otherwise, the readers will all go out and buy buy buy rclxms.gif

Don't fight UXXO warlords lah....
Showtime747
post Nov 28 2014, 01:59 PM

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bearbearwong

You should write something like what agentdiary wrote >2 years ago.....his argument is so beautiful and convincing. But he was wrong....


QUOTE(agentdiary @ Aug 31 2012, 06:28 PM)
Please stop reading if you're in property price will not go down camp. Take own responsibility if you still persist to go on. Don't blame the author for making your day bad. 

Fact is the real estate market has slowed and the signs of further slowing is growing every single day.

Forget about U.S and E.U, everyone is tired about the gloom and doom there.

Better shape countries like Taiwan (don't argue, is a sovereign country and maintaining its own military), China, Korea and Australia face difficulty to maintain economic growth. For example, Australia coal, iron ore and copper export has slumped. For the past 6 months, Australia total home sale has dropped and recorded the widest drop in July 2012. Price in some second tie markets for high end sector (>AUD1m) has dropped significantly as much as -40% or more.

China fresh grad unemployment rate reached double digit this year (check Al-Jazerra latest documentary on China graduate). ZhuShanJiao 珠三角, Guang Dong Province (the locomotive of manufacturing hub in southern China), area like Dong Guan registered NEGATIVE -11 GDP contraction due to large numbers factories closure.

Though China official GDP is 7.1% but the reliability is quite questionable. China financial market is not reflective the entire picture because shadow banking plays a large part for the medium/small enterprises. Last year reports of massive shadow banks run begin to surface from WenZhou, ZheJiang Province which has alerted Wen to intervene. Australia, Korea & Taiwan export to China begin to contract in 2012 and China electricity production did not grow from 2Q, 2012. It tells us the situation there is not good at all. 

Those in Malaysia who believe the property price can be sustained and grow (maybe slower) despite the economy gloom and doom around the world is living in fantasy.

Property price can only be sustained if you and me, brother/sister, your friends and enemies, good or bad neighbor, untie and uncle.... ALL, is able to continue paying the installment and rent on time to bank/landlord regardless of how bad the economy will become. The market really don't need many people failing to do their commitment for destruction the working of the financial chain.

Fictitious case. Just for illustration. A 3 years old condo with 400 dwellings. All in one size 1000sf, bought all in one price RM350k (now market price is RM500k) and 80% of them bough with 90% bank loan. When recession hit, 2% of them losing job and 3% of them have pay cut. So, 5% of them have problem to repay installment. 1% of them have saving while 1% of them, family can help out. Then left the 3% under water and foreclosure is inevitable. 3% is equal to 12 units of houses, is now on lelong. Let's say the lelong price is RM500k and under such economic downturn and large number of lelong is available, finding taker posses its difficulty. So, auction price has to be reduced, say, -10 to RM450k. If a different owner, financially better shape, want to sell his property now in an open market, he is not likely to find buyer at RM500k. Like it or not, RM450k is the realistic price (if there is taker of the auction price at RM450k. If not, further reduction is expected). When only half of the auction houses are able to sell, the remaining 6 will be further reduced. What if after further reduction, still no taker? Well, banker has to shoulder the liability without cash flow. When the vicious circle spread, it will force the market to raise interests rate as bankers now is facing reduction of cash flow. When interests rate adjusted upward, we can imagine the the ugly picture followed 

To believe the property price can be sustained or rise is equal to believe all the parties in the chain can do their part without failing. All of us know very well, it's not possible.

When the export drop which is happening now, the affected companies is going to bite the bullet and under such circumstances, the problem of laying off surplus labors and suppliers is inevitable in order to survive. Chain effect: our neighbor working in those companies and friend who is supplying the material to the companies and our government who collects tax from those companies. People spend less and ..... 

It is a tough time ahead, friends.

Obama is trying hard to reelect in Nov 2012 and he, as well as Mitt Romney will try their best to win voters than curing the economy (U.S has just reached 16 trillion deficit 2 days ago but who is talking it now? Still remember all the huhu-haha in Aug 2011 when deficit hit 15 trillion mark?). Angela Merkel will face the same as Germany election going to take place by latest of next year. China, just settled the recent largest political scandal involving the influential Bo Xilai, make no difference. China main focus now is the 18th National Congress of Commuinist China soon to be held. Who will take charge after Hu/Wen will be decided. Thus, it can be speculated that those politicians are buying time time for the moment.
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Showtime747
post Nov 28 2014, 02:02 PM

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QUOTE(Mikken @ Nov 28 2014, 01:51 PM)
Bro, got SSS camp ar? Stable stable stable. Stagnant Stagnant Stagnant
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Of course. You can self declare thumbup.gif
Showtime747
post Nov 28 2014, 02:05 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Nov 28 2014, 01:55 PM)
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


Traditionally Chinese In law prefer their future son in law to at least able to provide a house for their daughter before married, moreover nowadays people give birth to less children & their daughter are like precious gem, how to let their daughter still renting low cost apartment after married, offcoz if you are marrying a ulu kampung girl earning RM 800/mth then they may be OK, but you are marrying a lawyer & her father consider quite well to do, how can no reasonable house ?

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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This is very true thumbup.gif

Time has changed...
Showtime747
post Nov 28 2014, 02:40 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 28 2014, 02:17 PM)
If people are rational, there wouldn't be bull run and subsequent collapse like tulip mania, 97 asian financial crisis, 2008 subprime and kv property.

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You are confusing "irrational" and "economic crisis"

If everything can be predicted, there is no poor people in this world. What you are doing is "predict" and "timing" the market based on your narrow understanding.

You have been wrong previously. What makes you think your same action will be right in the future ?

Remember Albert Einstein's saying ? "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results". You are doing what Einstein was describing an insane person does tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Nov 28 2014, 02:49 PM

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bearbearwong

Another 1 very good DDD writer who wrote in 2011. You should be writing like him to convince the readers....

QUOTE(debtismoney @ Aug 7 2011, 09:49 PM)
Were there any property development recently been sold out on launch day? I reckon this is maniac behaviour, when everyone rushes to one asset class and afraid of being left out, isn't a sign of bubble top?

I presume many property investors are on teaser/low introductory interest loans. They are hoping to flip the properties within the low interest period and make a handsome profits. When everyone thinks the same, do you still think you could find the next greater fool to get a mortgage he/she can't afford to buy your overpriced properties? I have a feeling the pool of greater fool is running out very soon. Any thoughts?

The US had just been downgraded to AA+ by S&P few days ago, who is going to buy their treasury bond? I think their central bank the FED will step in and announce another round of money printing QE3 very soon, and the European Central Bank is going to print money and buy the Italian/Spanish bonds as well in order to avoid debt default. It will be an inflationary depression. Petrol, corn, grain, cotton, everything will go up in price... and you think property could cope inflation? Yes, but not overpriced properties for sole investment purposes only. When people are struggling to get food on the table or fill their gas tank, do you think they will be interested in flipping houses, upgrade to a bigger mcmansion.

Eventually interest rate will have to go up to cope runaway inflation. I suppose your parents in 70s/80s would have experienced mortgage rate more than 10%. Ring your bell? Because we had runaway inflation in late 70s/early 80s due to high money supply expansion for the Vietnam War. When the mortgage rate goes up or teaser loan reset kicks in, how many flippers could service their mortgage debt when rate is at >10%?

I really hope our Boleh Land will not experience property wreckage similar to US, Ireland, Spain, Dubai, Japan... Folks, the storm is coming, the world reserve US dollar gonna collapse, high inflation will hit our shore very soon.

At the end of the day, median house price will have to match average household income in long run, without the matching income who is going to service the mortgage debt? When running out of greater fool to get a bigger mortgage to buy the property, the music stops, the property bubble will burst... because the flippers haven't got enough income in the economy to service the mortgage debt. Falling total housing loan size is a prelude of falling housing market. Did the size of total housing loan grow in the last few months?


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Showtime747
post Nov 28 2014, 02:51 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 28 2014, 02:44 PM)
The market is so bad.. that even new launch with 1k 5k 1p entry oso cant move... even those readily finished vp also cant move..

oug parklane also cant m9ve.. it is every section of price also not moving.. BBB is running out of buyers.. the one BBB are able to buy choose to invest..

this is also a new ting need to be accepted.. many investors are waiting for cash out.. here only talk loud.. no need modal one... want save face still on BBB..

New launch is on buying spree.. of course they only projectsche quote you.. other non sellable are not included.. of course win.. no comparison one..
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bearbear, see my above post. Your DDD comrade is basically saying the same thing you just said in 2011. You are essentially just repeating the same thing in 2014 tongue.gif

3 years later in 2017, I will be quoting your above statement to some other DDD who will be saying the same thing again....
Showtime747
post Nov 28 2014, 03:01 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 28 2014, 02:49 PM)
U are saying speculated price is good.. and if you dun buy now and help me (showtime747) cash out and onlyme can upgrade.. price will increase further ..

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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No, speculated price is no good. To you, the current price is "speculated" price. To the market, the current price is "market" price.

I have said so many times, I buy property for rental. Not to sell and make capital gain. You and your conspiracy theory again.... tongue.gif

This post has been edited by Showtime747: Nov 28 2014, 03:02 PM

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