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 Traders Kopitiam! V6

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SUSwankongyew
post Nov 4 2014, 12:40 PM

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Easiest tip should be all of the O&G companies, which are rather obviously oversold. At the same time, it is also obvious that so long as the oil price continues to fall, the stocks will keep falling too. So the big question is at which point do you think oil prices will stabilize?
SUSwankongyew
post Nov 4 2014, 01:24 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Nov 4 2014, 01:17 PM)
Insider Asia's Mr Tong also dumped Homer:
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/t...olio-nov-4-2014
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Is there any way for me to subscribe to these updates without actually buying The Edge?
SUSwankongyew
post Nov 4 2014, 02:55 PM

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boon is probably right to say to wait and see. May drop quite a bit more depending on the oil price.
SUSwankongyew
post Nov 4 2014, 09:13 PM

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Wow, WTI down 3%. Might break below USD75.00 soon. At least this means the US economy should have a fantastic final quarter.

This post has been edited by wankongyew: Nov 4 2014, 09:14 PM
SUSwankongyew
post Nov 5 2014, 10:12 AM

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No big surprise there. You know, most of Iran's oil is still off the international market due to sanctions. What would happen if Iran managed to negotiate an end to the sanctions?
SUSwankongyew
post Nov 5 2014, 09:01 PM

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Some positive news for Petrobras so there may be a small rebound for SKPETRO I think. Especially since everything is likely to be green tomorrow after the Republican win in the US. But overall still depends on oil prices.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-04/p...ine-prices.html
SUSwankongyew
post Nov 25 2014, 09:38 AM

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There was some talk of TGUAN earlier but it seems to have released a rather bad quarterly report and its price duly dropped. Thoughts for now?
SUSwankongyew
post Nov 28 2014, 12:28 AM

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No action from OPEC. Oil down to USD70. Lots of blood in Malaysian O&G counters tomorrow.
SUSwankongyew
post Nov 28 2014, 11:01 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 28 2014, 10:52 AM)
Yes. I am aware of these stats. smile.gif

However, considering these facts...
you cannot help but scratch your hair until bald when you get OPEC's decision to maintain and not cut oil output....

It's a W T F decision which escalated the wild selling yesterday......
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Cutting means allowing US shale oil producers to get a free ride on the price. I think not cutting is absolutely the best decision for OPEC in the long term even if it causes a lot of short term pain (and even though I am losing a lot in SKPETRO). They need to make the Americans think twice before investing in more shale oil production and the Canadians the even more expensive tar sands production.
SUSwankongyew
post Nov 28 2014, 11:25 AM

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What about the wider implications of the drop over the next year or so? I think it's basically a fantastic stimulus effect for the economies of the US, EU and Japan. In fact, I'm not too upset about losing money on SKPETRO because my international funds are doing really well and I have more money there anyway. On the other hand, if Russia's economy crashes (and possibly lesser countries like Brazil, Venezuela etc. as well), it might put a damper on the whole world. What do you think?
SUSwankongyew
post Nov 29 2014, 10:16 AM

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Looks like O&G still has scope for more falls on Monday due to Petronas' official announcement of capex cuts
SUSwankongyew
post Nov 30 2014, 10:59 AM

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Man, reading through bits and pieces of news, I'm beginning to be convinced that the downturn in oil prices will last for some time, maybe a year or two at least and it still has room to fall. Shale oil producers in the US have sunk costs and can't cut back on production. They will cut new investment but that only affects new wells down the road. The general outlook for the global economy next year is pretty bleak so demand is likely to drop further.

So in short: I should have listened to boon and cut losses quickly!


SUSwankongyew
post Dec 1 2014, 10:12 AM

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Does your valuation of SKPETRO still hold if oil price falls to USD50? smile.gif
SUSwankongyew
post Dec 1 2014, 03:11 PM

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Heh, SKPETRO down 16%. Next stop RM2?
SUSwankongyew
post Dec 1 2014, 03:25 PM

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I'm going to say something very controversial here. I think today's huge drop isn't just about oil. It's also a response by investors against the fairly extremist stuff that was said during the recent UMNO general meeting.
SUSwankongyew
post Dec 2 2014, 09:54 AM

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I am laughing at CIMB's TP for SKPETRO. Maintain TP of RM6.84. Nothing has changed in the oil market! All is well! Oil price? Reduced PETRONAS capex? They don't matter at all.

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/staticfile/251781.jsp
SUSwankongyew
post Dec 2 2014, 12:01 PM

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Am I seeing this right? KLSE flipped from green to red, but the rest of the Asian markets just flipped from red to green?
SUSwankongyew
post Dec 6 2014, 10:46 PM

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Yes, the problem with fast momentum trading is that you can never beat the superfast algorithms.
SUSwankongyew
post Dec 10 2014, 05:15 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Dec 2 2014, 10:05 AM)
hehehe.... her saving grace is the report was made on Nov 28th.
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No chance of that! CIMB doubles down on their TP on 9 December. 179% upside!

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/staticfile/252205.jsp

This post has been edited by wankongyew: Dec 10 2014, 05:15 PM
SUSwankongyew
post Dec 11 2014, 12:12 AM

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Wow, looks like oil might break USD60 soon.

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