This bull market is so strong, there is no bear chance at all. All dips are bought and rebought caused mostly by
fund money chasing for year-end performance.

Letting this ride up.. selling the cover calls for SPY 207 for next week expiration.

No more trading for me until after Thanksgiving. Going back to USA for vacation with the family.

Please hold the fort until I come back in December... don't let the bulls run too much.

This bull is more scary than bear...

Waah... sneaked in and took a peek here.
SPY closed at 207.20. They took away shares with the sold 207 calls from prior week.

Looks like bulls still strong for the general index except for Oil.. wtf.. this is indeed cheaper than mineral water now.

Waah.. after two weeks off, I see nothing much has change except the bulls are still inching up everyday and oil prices going down (thanks to Opec gangsta!).

Only 3.5 weeks to go for end of 2014. Market is already all time high here.
Perhaps bulls still want more Santa gifts here?

China ASHR been on superbull last month.. I think it got more juice to go here.

Malaysia KLCI -> problem caused by OPEC here.. so much for the friends of Saudis.. when it comes to money,
everyone fend for themselves. Let see if 1700 can hold or not.

Wow.. Brent down to $66 and WTI to $63.

Finally... Bears are out!!!

Anyone spotted China/Shanghai market yesterday.. -5% after big dump yesterday.
still kinda high.. needs more dump.

Also, FBMKLCI.. getting pummeled everyday..getting closer to 1700.

Something is different .. this time around last year, we got Santa Claus rally.
Now, it is Santa Bear???

Bulls tried to negate back everything that was sold yesterday.

But,.... be careful here. Could be trap.

Energy stocks also tried to bounce but got a lot more to go. Oil still very weak.

I'm not buying this.

Perhaps don't need to go back so far..

I remembered Oil was $40 in 2009, right after the March'09 bottom for SP500.
But, it was when there's huge risk deflation and very bad economy.

Right now, economy recovery is on the right track (albeit slowly).

Oil issues are mainly supply/demand now. As long as the market is flooded with over supply (contango),
there is nothing much to do except to wait for the producers to cut back

OR.... somebody blow up some pipelines...

Well, 10-12% of the weight of SP500 are energy related... so, if investors sell energy related stocks, and didn't buy the others, they just follow to sell down. I think the general market still healthy here (except energy sector -> gone into bear area).

If Nasdaq goes down, good time to scout for bargain for tech stocks.

I think if OPECs turns around, it is going to one big HUGE rally for all the energy related stocks. They're now trading as if the earnings in 2014 has evaporated and 2015 forward earnings are in recession.

Yes, social medial stocks like FB and LNKD are good. Both are generating good revenue quarter over quarter.

Yes, you can buy 1 share (same as 1 unit).

But, $100 is not enough to buy 1 share of SPY (which is the index for SP500). LOL!

Yes, the actual price of SP500 is $2K.

But, SPY (the most popular ETF which tracks SP500) is just 1/10 of the actual price.
Still, it is more than $100..

If SPY actually drops $100, you will see recession.

You think 50ma cannot hold here? If 1950, I will be all in again! Just -50 pts away...

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Dec 13 2014, 08:50 AM

Don't get confused. NYSE is the Exchange, not a stock. SP500 is just basically a name of 500 large cap US MNC companies.


SP500 means Big Caps already... yes, just use SPY (the ETF) as ticker.

Mid Caps ticker is MDY

Just go google S&P MIDCAP 400® ETF and you find the list of 400 mid caps companies in this ETF.

Yes, for this kind of leverage, it is call Options!
Google around Stock Options to find out more.
Warning: Stock Options are not for rookies.


-- ETFs are created for NOT because of diversification alone but because of COST (as compared to unit trusts aka. mutual funds).
It is cheaper to trade ETF, just like stocks.
-- ETFs can be certain sectors: Transport, Oil, Housing, REITs, Commodities, Gaming, Dividends, Emerging market, World markets, etc...
-- SPDR is just one of the company that created the ETFs.
-- Dividends distribution are treated differently depending on how many stocks inside the ETF itself. You have to read its disclosures..
-- Yes, for any of the ETFs that have been tracking Gold, Oil and other commodities who had gone down in prices, their prices also have gone down in the same manner.. but their percentage are different.

Hope this helps!

Ha ha! Correct... the Fed (the doctor) has stop the flow of additional drug. Now, the patient (the economy) is on its own.




This post has been edited by danmooncake: Dec 14 2014, 01:21 AM

No, they're not accurate because they're 3x leverage (one bull, one bear) and they reset everyday after the percentage move.
Dangerous to play this if you're on the wrong side.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Dec 16 2014, 03:53 AM

No, there are some tracking errors on those ETFs. The longer the timeframe, the more tracking errors and also they decay over time too - eventho if the underlying index stays the same over a longer time.

For example.

Let say if SP500 @ 2000 on day 1, SPXS=20
Within a month, SP500 may go up or down and let say it goes back to 2000 after 30 days,
you will find SPXS will be less than $20.


On other news... did you see that 17% interest rate by Russia Central bank? This is absolutely insane!
I guess they got no choice because everyone in Russia now panicking and selling the Rubles like Zimbabwe currency.


This post has been edited by danmooncake: Dec 16 2014, 01:28 PM

Be careful, the Russian stock market is not falling only knives but falling live grenades.

Average Russian earns US 12-13K/year just 6 months ago. Now they're earning 5-6K/year because
the rubles have devalued by 50%

The 17% rate hike overnight triggered more panic selling of the Russia currency.

US and Europe don't have to put any more additional sanctions, their own citizens are punishing themselves by selling Rubles and
buying USD and Euro.


The fallout from Russia also affecting other emerging markets.. like India, Indonesia and certainly Malaysia.
I wonder if BNM willing to step out to defend Ringgit.


This post has been edited by danmooncake: Dec 16 2014, 09:58 PM