My Risk ON Assets are also flying. Especially them gold/silver miners.

ETFs is good way to trade with the flow.
However, the derivative on gold/silver price rise is best benefited by identifying good mining companies. Investing in individual companies far outstrip the gains of an ETF easily.
For eg, i had a look at my small profit making gold miner against GDX and DGXJ over a year.
My small producer +308% vs GDX 78% vs GDXJ 89%

It's a opportunity of a lifetime. Don't waste it!

I don't give stock recommendations.
But if you are ok with using ETFs, please continue. Still make money on the gold rocket.

Yeah. Silver is a good potential to make some coffee money in the producers.
Silver has yet to hit it's all time high.

She broke $3,700

Good job! Unfortunately there's no Kota Kinabalu branch listed!

And



This post has been edited by prophetjul: Sep 17 2025, 03:10 PM

Of course. The Runggit is a badly deprecating currency.

Good point here.
I was there from 2002 and seen these cycles.
When gold retreated to $680 in 2009, i bought my 2nd batch after the 1st in 2002. This was because i had a sudden hoard of cash selling my HSBC shares in 2009.
And we saw, gold went from 680 to max out at $1900.
In those days, US debt was only around less than $1 trillion. Today, it is $27 trillion. And it was essentially a US problem of sub prime.
Plus those days, central banks were not buying any gold at any substantial significance. Especially CHina. China has just started to build up their gold reserves.
Plus we are having numerous regional wars going on presently.
And of course, world economics uncertainty through tariffs.

So what? i would not short gold at this stage.

While you were sleeping,

Gold wnet up to another ATH of $3,747

What's the spread between buy/sell price in TnG?

500.68/510.59 spread is 1.94%

It's ok overall. But for electronic trading is high since GLD ETF is only 0.2 to 0.4%.
Bullion is around 4%

Not sure. But Moo moo should be able to access GLD.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GLD/

$3,785

Very very small miner.
Output is presently very small.




There is one gold miner listed on SGX mining in Kelantan. Already producing and sustainable financially.
Very strong balance sheet.
Disclaimer: I am invested.

My investment in the SGX gold miner yielded more than lunch money!
Like 60k became 240k

1. Probability of a U.S. Government Shutdown
What the market / forecasts imply


Recent sources suggest the odds of a shutdown are quite elevated:


Polymarket (a prediction market) places the probability in the ~ 65-70% range. Newsweek


Earlier odds were lower (~45%) but have been rising. Newsweek+1


Political reporting suggests that, as of now, there is no clear path to avoid a shutdown via a continuing resolution or full appropriations, making a shutdown more likely. Fed News Network+1


The Senate has rejected key stopgap funding proposals, raising the likelihood of operational lapse. PBS+1


So, a reasonable (but not certain) estimate is that there is ~60&ndash 70% chance of a partial government shutdown starting October 1, unless last-minute dealmaking intervenes.
Key caveats


Shutdowns often get averted at the eleventh hour (i.e. in the &ldquo last minute&rdquo ).


A short shutdown (a few days) is less damaging than a prolonged one.


The impact depends heavily on how comprehensive the shutdown is (which agencies are impacted) and how long it continues.


The political will to avoid economic fallout is strong, which sometimes leads to compromises.
2. Likely Impacts on Gold Price & Markets


When thinking about how a shutdown might affect gold and broader markets, the effects tend to come via sentiment, risk premium, and interest rates more than fundamental demand for gold per se.
How a shutdown tends to affect markets


Increased uncertainty / risk premium


A shutdown raises political and policy uncertainty. That often prompts investors to shift toward &ldquo safe haven&rdquo assets like gold, U.S. Treasuries, or cash.


It can delay data releases (e.g. employment, inflation), making the Federal Reserve&rsquo s path for rates less clear. Pepperstone+2Reuters+2


Disruptions to regulatory agencies, corporate filings, and government services can cause friction in markets. Reuters+1


Rates and yield curve dynamics


With weaker economic activity (if shutdown lingers), bond yields might fall (especially short-term) as investors expect weaker growth or more dovish monetary policy.


A flattening or inverted yield curve could result if long-term rates don&rsquo t fall as much.


Lower real yields (nominal yields minus inflation expectations) tend to favor gold, since gold carries no yield.


Gold&rsquo s safe-haven appeal


Gold often benefits from &ldquo flight to safety&rdquo flows when risk is rising.


But historical evidence is mixed &mdash during past shutdowns, gold had modest or even muted moves. Some shutdowns gave gold an early bump others saw little consistent trend. Gold Price Forecast


In the current environment, gold is already trading near record highs, so further gains might require very strong tailwinds. Bloomberg+2Reuters+2
Possible magnitudes & scenarios


Here&rsquo s how different durations or severities might translate into gold / market outcomes:
Shutdown Scenario Likely Market Effects Implications for Gold
Short shutdown (a few days to ~1 week) Mild disruption, delayed data releases, some volatility, quick resolution Modest upside for gold (e.g. 1&ndash 3%), especially early in the shutdown, but gains may fade once resolution is expected
Moderate shutdown (1&ndash 2 weeks) More stress on confidence, possibly some weakness in economic indicators & risk assets, more hawkish/dovish confusion in rates Stronger boost for gold as investors seek safety, perhaps ~3&ndash 7% move (depending on sentiment)
Prolonged shutdown (> 2 weeks) Real economic drag (consumer confidence, delays in government contracts, lags in investment), fiscal stress, credit spreads may widen Could see material upside if risk aversion intensifies &mdash potentially +5&ndash 10% or more (though constrained by how far gold already is)
Shutdown + mass firings / cuts (intensified version) Sharper negative consumer/investor sentiment, possibly contagion into credit markets, disruptions to budgets & supply chains Could push gold significantly higher, especially if markets start pricing systemic risks or policy paralysis
Other interactions that might amplify or dampen impacts


If the shutdown delays key inflation or employment data, the Fed&rsquo s rate decisions may become more uncertain. That uncertainty can boost gold as real yields compress.


If the dollar weakens (due either to U.S. policy risk or capital flows), that strengthens gold (dollar‐ denominated gold becomes cheaper in other currencies).


If risk assets (equities, credit spreads) come under pressure, reallocations to &ldquo safe havens&rdquo can drive gold further up.


But if investors believe the shutdown will be short and benign, the &ldquo overhang&rdquo may already be priced in, limiting gold&rsquo s upside.
Probability-Weighted Projection (My Estimate)


Given ~60&ndash 70% odds of a shutdown, here&rsquo s a rough expected move for gold over the next 1&ndash 2 weeks (all else equal):


Base case (shutdown ~1 week): Gold might rise +2% to +5% from current levels due to safe-haven flows and risk premium.


Bear case (shutdown drags 2+ weeks): Gold could see +5% to +10% upside, particularly if real yields decline and there is broader market stress.

Poor faq no look at gold.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...tdown-fed-rates