Interest rate hikes means gold price falling is a FALLACY according to HISTORY
____________________________________________________________
Gold and Fed Rate Hikes
Adam Hamilton February 13, 2015 2864 Words
Gold’s sharp early-year surge has fizzled in recent weeks as investment demand faded. The primary reason is the universal belief that the Fed’s upcoming rate hikes are very bearish for gold. Higher rates will make zero-yielding gold relatively less attractive, argues this popular thesis. But history proves just the opposite. Gold actually thrives in rising- and higher-rate environments, so rate hikes are nothing to fear.
This notion definitely seems counterintuitive today. When the Fed finally begins letting interest rates start to normalize after actively suppressing them for years on end, yields on bonds and cash in the form of money-market funds will rise. That will make these asset classes more appealing to investors. So they will migrate out of gold, which yields nothing, into the new higher-yielding bonds and money-market funds.
This logic is simple, which is why the great majority of investors and speculators today believe that gold is going to face relentless selling as rates rise. But rather than accepting this conventional “wisdom” at face value, why not see what’s happened in the past? Did the earlier periods of rising and higher rates suck vast amounts of capital out of gold, deflating its price? If not, then this popular thesis is dead wrong.
It’s funny how ideas take root and flourish in the financial markets. Traders are highly emotional, with most of their trading decisions based on greed and fear. They also have an overwhelming status-quo bias, expecting current market conditions to persist indefinitely. Thus any rationalization of why stock markets will rally on balance forever while gold fades into oblivion are quickly seized on and trumpeted as truth.
With traders’ collective greed and fear constantly overriding their rationality, popular fallacies always exist. They include widespread beliefs today that market history proves are ridiculous. Such as the ideas that stock markets can rally perpetually without corrections or bears, that stock-market valuations don’t matter, and that central banks can successfully manipulate prices forever. History makes a mockery of these!
Yet traders believe what they want to, whatever seems to bolster their views that existing trends have turned permanent in some new era. But the past record is crystal-clear, financial markets are forever cyclical. Asset classes rise as they grow popular, but then inevitably subsequently fall as they drift out of favor again. Gold is no exception. Gold can’t drift lower forever any more than stock markets can rally forever.
So instead of just blindly accepting today’s belief that the Fed’s rate hikes are bearish for gold, why not check the historical record? This first chart includes over 45 years of daily gold-price and interest-rate data. For interest rates I used the yields on benchmark 1-year Treasury bills and 10-year Treasury notes to represent both the short and long ends of the yield curve. Are rising and higher rates really bearish for gold?

Read more here
http://www.zealllc.com/2015/goldfrhk.htm