QUOTE(gchowyh @ Dec 22 2014, 03:53 PM)
Let us hope it does not get that bad, else is even harder to play musical chair!
Btw, why i asked if the article is for real is in my opinion, the pressure to increase the interest rate is still higher due to:
1. GST next year pushes up inflation
2. Petrol price is going down but CPI is still high especially due to the surprise increase in diesel which many businesses rely on
3. Even at the end of the day, many businesses are reluctant to reduce prices as many would say, prices only go up but rarely go down.
4. Banks are still attracting more deposits since it is at almost an all time low
5. Outflow of funds from the country
6. Depreciation of ringgit also pushes up inflation.
I also believe that piece of news is a tactic to encourage the nation to temporarily spend more..
1. GST inflation factor is one off, BNM won't act on one off event, as the raising rate effort is useless to cope the inflation by one off event.
2. Price increases has a lot to do with subsidies cut/abolished, again this is one off event, raising interest rate won't curb this kind of inflation.
So this 2 factor won't be the sole/main consideration when BNM deciding on rate.
Raising interest rate will only curb inflation, if the inflation is demand pull factor.
Cost higher due to 1&2 is a push factor, which even you raise interest rate to 10%, the price still need/will go up.
The pressure of rate hike is not that great at the moment, if
a. Household debt is not raising further.
b. Inflation is not running wild away due to high demand by consumer.
c. RM is not depreciated too greatly, in fact RM appreciated against AUD, NZD, Yen.
d. Foreign currency reserves is not depleting rapidly,due to current account deficit (now still surplus)